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Trucks aren't phones. Every mm on a smart/cell phone is precious. There is plenty of room for buttons on a truck dash.

Truck purchases aren't rational decisions. At least not the $40k-$100k types.

Small margin fleet sales of $27k work trucks are rational decisions.

Retail truck purchases are emotional decisions. Even what anthropologist call tribal cultural decisions.

Getting a F Series owner to switch to Silverado is a bridge too far most times. That is switching bands not tribes.

Asking an F Series owner to buy a Cybertruck is like asking him to switch from the Midwestern tribe or Southern tribe to the California tribe. And then the Cybertruck design is like asking him to get a face tattoo signifying his new allegiance.

This will not happen in 10 years much less five. Yes, there will be exceptions. Largely, F Series, Silverado and Ram owners that also own EVs and HEVs that do in fact just need the utility of a truck but otherwise don't see themselves as members of those tribes. Slowly convincing the youngest members of the Southern and Midwest tribes is likely.

I read here not too long ago that the unveil of Model 3 would suck up so much demand it would bankrupt at least one legacy automaker. Maybe two. Then it became once Model 3 was in mass production it will kill at least a couple of legacy automakers. Then ,well, Model Y.

I believe Tesla will sell every Cybertruck they can make without discount. But it will largely go to non Detroit pickup owners. Japanese brand truck owners. Everyday sedan, crossover, and small SUV owners that want the utility of a pickup but weren't willing to pay the fuel weekly of an ICE pickup when they only needed the utility occasionally. Or didn't see themselves as members of the Midwestern or Southern tribes. Or "I don't listen to Country music and have sex with my sister" members of the California and New York tribes.

I know I will get a billion disagrees. Reality isn't subject to a vote on message boards.
Before I got my M3 in 2018, I drove a dodge ram hemi pickup.

I still have it, but I only use it to drive brush and wood and rock around my property.

I never even drive it to the grocery store I can't stand Driving it anymore I don't even like sitting in it that much but I love sitting in my Tesla M3.

And yes, I signed up for the cyber truck.
 
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Retail truck purchases are emotional decisions. Even what anthropologist call tribal cultural decisions.

Getting a F Series owner to switch to Silverado is a bridge too far most times. That is switching bands not tribes.

When I demolish your little play trucks, and your women flock to me, you will join my Cybertruck tribe.

Manifest Destiny. ;)
 
The Cybertruck isn't for everyone, but we don't necessarily know what brands buyers will come from. I am not expecting more traditional truck drivers to instantly defect, but I would not rule out a slow leak of some customers,

That is becuase the selling point of the Cybertruck isn't just the looks and the brand image. It is how the vechicle performs off road as a recreational vechicle as a work vechicle and as a family vechicle.

While it may not be suitable for a jobs, it will suit some work or some businesses down to the ground.

It will also suit some lifestyles very well.

Some of those early converts may convert others, not based on brand or looks, but on what it does, how it drives, and what it can do.

A earlier example is Japanese cars, initially the seemed destined for small sales numbers, but grew in popularity as they became more familiar.

So while a lot of people might be tribal, not everyone is, and we don't have a breakdown.

I am not saying you are not at least partially right, just that things change over time and people have many different motivations and some people change their mind when presented with new information.
Tesla knew exactly what they were doing with the Cybertruck, and the overall market of truck buyers. The Cybertruck is classic blue ocean strategy, while they will let Ford and rest fight it out in the red water with their new electric trucks.
 
Agreed.

To a greater or lesser degree many modern truck buyers are members of the "Look at ME!" tribe.

Cybertruck's unveiling, and the "at first I didn't like it, but..." effect is what exemplifies the driving force behind the paradigm shift to the new normal. Some will complain right up to the moment they put down their deposit, yet they will, just the same, because it makes sense to do so, and/or, their neighbor/best friend/role model bought one.

The number of truck owners who are dyed-in-the-wool traditionalists are probably fewer than those who claim to be. Many among their ranks will eventually capitulate for any of several reasons, Ego being the primary one, even if only to move to their brand's electric product or a Rivian. Cost, upkeep, utility, etc. and general adoption will be factors, as seeing CTs in the wild becomes more routine.

The advent of the Mini-van might be a worthy example of something "nobody wanted" yet became ubiquitous over a short period of time. (think Danny Di Vito and John Travolta in Get Shorty, "this is the Cadillac of minivans")


A few die-hards will go extinct in the ending of the ICE age and others will become "collectors" who are willing to deal with those old-fashioned, maintenance heavy, and smelly-fueled vehicles. Those pickups will trickle off from being the daily driver as the hassle of ownership by comparison to electric makes the choice to go electric clearer.

It won't be an overnight flick of the switch, it will be a trend that progressively ramps up over time. The amount of time will be determined solely by how fast Tesla can produce them.

Cybertrucks won't be sitting on lots waiting for buyers to make up their mind whether or not they want one. It will be many years before that scenario exists.
As a firefighter I spend a lot of (too much) time around macho meat heads.

of course I don’t shut up about TESLA, TSLA, and my Elon man crush. I get a lot of “I’ll never drive an electric car”.

I reminds me of when I waited in line for the first iPhone...many of the same people claimed they would never buy one of those overpriced cell phones.

I think you all know how that ended. Now, almost all of those same guys at work has a new iPhone every year or 2. (As well as everyone in their family).

I suspect this will be the same. Of course some will buy a Samsung or google phone; but they just won’t be included in the group chats until they finally capitulate!
 
Demand for pick up trucks are off the roof. With the "microchip" shortage, look at the resale values on used light duty trucks. Insane.

I know folks who are diehard half ton owners and super duty owners that are considering Cybertruck because of the price point, specifications, and the fact that it gets rid of 15-17mpg consumption and $100 fill ups.

My work requires I should be driving a truck almost everywhere but I avoid it as much as possible due to the expensive fill ups. Cybertruck combines a separate truck and Tesla into one vehicle.

I predict demand will be so high, resale on the Cybertruck will be more expensive than the price it is bought at for a long while. It will be like owning a rare supercar (supermodel).
 
How important are these features to truck buyers? Well, they have never been offered before, so we don’t know yet. Would the ruggedness of a dent/bulletproof appeal to truck owner?
Old pickup trucks aren't taken off the road because they're dented; they're scraped when they rust out to to the point when they become useless/dangerouse.

Cybertruck's stainless steel body will never rust. Think about what that means for the mission, and what it would have meant for Ford if they had started using stainless steel for car bodies 90 years ago?

0*sFc0UzyJ2c16K6PQ.jpg
 
Interesting link from Cathie Wood to Facebook AI and their advanced imaging labeling. Assuming Tesla is at least as advanced as Facebook, this helps explain Elon's reason for ditching LIDAR. Reading the linked deep dive article starts to read like science fiction - is "consciousness" far behind?


 
i tend to agree with you about the “mindset”
i have a nephew that “likes to own the libs” even to the point of “coal rolling”
(his momma may have dropped him out of the bed when he was a baby 50+ years ago and landed on his head)
however,

where are they going to obtain the fuel in a few short years?

they are an ecosystem, at least to me, fuel and hardware to move the fuel to get more fuel and by the way do work in between
edit:
(as an intriguing thought, at least to me; space is vast, and once in zero gravity, it takes a tiny push to go anywhere outside of gravity wells, so, what will be a very valuable commodity, once you have a stable living environment? fuel. reaction mass to throw away, fuel to provide delta V to get you from “here to there, starting and stopping” so fuel stations will be valuable)

the easy oil has already been pumped or even geysered decades ago
those vehicles are highly fuel inefficient, have “ginormous” fuel tanks
a simple statistic on “number of fueling stations, which is dropping
“reality” of “yeah, cannot run them on air, but I could if they were electric”
this is _not_ a disagree but it’s going to be a “gotcha” for fossil fuel users ‘real soon now’, an accelerating negative feed back loop.
this graph ends ~14 years ago, but the trends continue, I think I found a few numbers indicating below 100,000, so maybe 26 years to lose 50%.....

As a related aside/correlation single data point, I have been startled at the large number of PV arrays, 10kw and above, popping up all over in my local neighborhoods, “?solar refineries?” for manufacturing fuel for vehicles and homes
View attachment 658885

slow Sunday, I got curious to see if I could find a chart that continued longer

How Many Gas Stations Are In U.S.? How Many Will There Be In 10 Years? says 115,000

Industries at a Glance: Gasoline Stations: NAICS 447 shows 107,018 in 2020 (event lower numbers here)

U.S. Convenience Store Count The number of convenience stores that sell motor fuels is 121,538 stores, which is about 80.9% of all convenience stores. Overall, convenience stores sell approximately 80% of the motor fuels purchased in the United States.

The convenience.org number is both higher and more recent, but might be based on a different criteria.

Obviously the trend is down from 2005 to now.
 
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Trucks aren't phones. Every mm on a smart/cell phone is precious. There is plenty of room for buttons on a truck dash.

Truck purchases aren't rational decisions. At least not the $40k-$100k types.

Small margin fleet sales of $27k work trucks are rational decisions.

Retail truck purchases are emotional decisions. Even what anthropologist call tribal cultural decisions.

Getting a F Series owner to switch to Silverado is a bridge too far most times. That is switching bands not tribes.

Asking an F Series owner to buy a Cybertruck is like asking him to switch from the Midwestern tribe or Southern tribe to the California tribe. And then the Cybertruck design is like asking him to get a face tattoo signifying his new allegiance.

This will not happen in 10 years much less five. Yes, there will be exceptions. Largely, F Series, Silverado and Ram owners that also own EVs and HEVs that do in fact just need the utility of a truck but otherwise don't see themselves as members of those tribes. Slowly convincing the youngest members of the Southern and Midwest tribes is likely.

I read here not too long ago that the unveil of Model 3 would suck up so much demand it would bankrupt at least one legacy automaker. Maybe two. Then it became once Model 3 was in mass production it will kill at least a couple of legacy automakers. Then ,well, Model Y.

I believe Tesla will sell every Cybertruck they can make without discount. But it will largely go to non Detroit pickup owners. Japanese brand truck owners. Everyday sedan, crossover, and small SUV owners that want the utility of a pickup but weren't willing to pay the fuel weekly of an ICE pickup when they only needed the utility occasionally. Or didn't see themselves as members of the Midwestern or Southern tribes. Or "I don't listen to Country music and have sex with my sister" members of the California and New York tribes.

I know I will get a billion disagrees. Reality isn't subject to a vote on message boards.

You might be right. I certainly agree that for many owners, a truck (like all publicly visible possessions) is a statement of identity, chosen for emotional reasons. But what is that identity statement?

"I am a badass." A manly man or tough-as-nails woman who values strength, power, and bigness without apology. Some men hang truck-nuts from their bumpers in case the statement is not clear enough from the vehicle. Commercials show trucks scaling boulders. Ford's slogan since forever is: "Built Ford tough."

But compared to Cybertruck, the F-series (including any electric one) is pathetically weak.

Cybertruck is stronger, more powerful, and tougher in every way. It accelerates like a rocket, goes faster and farther, and drives itself if you want. It is made of rocket steel, fer fuks sake, like those gawddamn ships headed for Mars. You can't dent it with a sledgehammer. You can shoot the sumbitch and it only looks more badass. You can blast your country music out the external speaker so the whole county knows what tribe you're with. You can decorate that indestructible steel with any wraps or decals you want (flames, skulls, half-neckid babes, military logos) and it looks badder-ass.

What reason remains to buy a pathetic old Ford? To own the libs? Cybertruck is built in Texas, not Mexico. By that badass rocketman who defied California bureaucrats to reopen his factory because... well, he don't take *sugar* from nobody. Then he told those wine-sippers to shove it and moved himself, his seven kids, and red-hot girlfriend to the big Lone Star. He's one of us now.

Of course Ford trucks will not disappear instantly from the roads. Their resale value will plummet, so plenty will sell used. But that won't keep Ford alive. With their debt load and dependence on the F-series, the kind of market-share losses that Tesla inflicted on luxury ICE makers will doom Ford.

Mach-E can't save them, IMO. How could it when Model Y continuously drops in price and increases in capability, even if Ford had the will and the batteries to scale up Mach-E production? Tesla's FSD will be a mortal blow to old Henry's company... Cybertruck will be the coup de grâce.

BTW, I lived in the midwest for half my life before I moved to California with the pansies. So I have some familiarity with the truck-nut tribe.
 
OT, but for anyone driving through Albany, Crossgates Mall has 20 Superchargers and is never crowded. Colonie Center is slightly more convenient to the highway but only has 6 Superchargers and is frequently crowded. Crossgates might be worth the extra minute or two drive.

To make this slightly on topic, Tesla would sell a lot of cars here if they put a gallery in either mall. The closest Tesla store is 2 hours away. Hopefully when battery production increases and Austin is online we will see more effort to get the laws changed in New York to allow more stores. There is a lot of demand here, but people like to test drive before buying.
All: If you find yourself at either supercharger, a short detour away is one of if not the best bakery I’ve ever been to.
Bella Napoli in Latham is well worth the trip. You’ll thank me later. We go out of our way from the Philly area when we go to New Hampshire or Bar Harbor, either on the way up or back. Can’t wait for the next trip!
 
EDIT: I see the OP deleted the post to which I replied. For context, this is to address the twitter notion that TSLA's addtion to the S&P 500 ESG index caused Friday's runup in SP (it didn't).

ETFs that track the S&P 500 ESG hold ~0.10% of AUM vs S&P 500 ETFs: (they are tiny)

Ratio of ESG 500 to S&P 500.png


This isn't so much a 'chicken-and-egg' comparison; it a 'brontosaurus-and-egg' comparison. :p

IMO, it's unlikely that ESG purchases by ETFs lead to 40M shares traded and +7% intraday run of TSLA on Friday. But let's watch how the S&P 500 ESG index tracks over Q2. All buying is good (in general).

However, whatever accumulation for ESG 500 would have occured during the closing cross on the Friday before inclusion, similar to the way Fri Dec 18, 2020 was a 231M share trading day prior to TSLA inclusion in the S&P 500 (in effect at the start of Mon, Dec 21, 2020).

Cheers!
 
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3:45 - Couple of questions related to Elon:
Thank you for posting this....and what BS. There's nothing faster to react towards a situation than a battery. My distaste grows more and more every time I hear Buffett speak. Funny, doesn't matter whether his proposal works out or not, he'll just throw 4B at the situation.
 
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I know I will get a billion disagrees. Reality isn't subject to a vote on message boards.
You missed the key "reality" point. The vast, vast majority of tribal Ford owners will not consider the electric version of the truck. They will buy the gas or diesel model. Going electric will be a bridge way too far for them. So Ford won't sell many electric pickups ever. This lack of ability to start the transition slowly will be Ford's death knell. The tribe will struggle once massive oil subsidies end and serious EPA pollution standards for new vehicles are enforced (could be another decade but it will happen); new oil-fueled trucks will just be too expensive to own and operate so most of the tribe will cling to older models killing off most of Ford's new truck sales. Fords electric truck will not have evolved, maybe not even survived, so that when capitulation (of tribal truck buyers) eventually happens the only decent electric trucks won't be made by Ford. Many members of the tribe will stick with old gas trucks until they (the tribe members) literally die.