Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[redan]

Plus Israel is a new market they are shipping to.

Tesla Model 3 to Become Israel's Best-Selling EV, as Ship with 1,500 Units Arrives at Port

Having opened sales in Israel, Tesla met with great success. Thousands of orders were placed on the first day, but in Q1 2021 the company was able to deliver only a small fraction of them. Now a vessel with 1,500 made in Giga Shanghai Model 3s arrives in Israel to deliver the long-awaited cars...

www.tesmanian.com

The largest batch of Tesla, at 1,500 units, will arrive by ship in the port of Ashdod on May 2, according to Calcalist. Within a few days, the vehicles will be unloaded and their preparation for delivery to customers will begin. After registration, Model 3 will become the best-selling electric vehicle in Israel in May and Q2 2021. This also paves the way for Model 3 to become the nation's best-selling electric vehicle in 2021. 1,500 registered vehicles will exceed the total number of all electric vehicles sold in Israel in 2020.

 

[SN_8]

Thank you for posting this....and what BS. There's nothing faster to react towards a situation than a battery. My distaste grows more and more every time I hear Buffett speak. Funny, doesn't matter whether his proposal works out or not, he'll just throw 4B at the situation.

I agree, but I did sort of like his response to the next "would you insure SpaceX's Mars missions" question. While Ajit Jain displayed narrow-mindedness ("I'll pass"), Warren at least showed pragmatism ("Depends on the premium") and some wit ("a discount if Elon's on board").

 

[2daMoon]

IMO, it's unlikely that ESG purchases by ETFs lead to 40M shares traded of TSLA on Friday.

C'mon, if this were so, what did lead to that bump?

This seems akin to inferring investors came to their senses and bought a (THE???) growth stock based upon reason, facts, math, science, and a range of business fundamentals? Such a concept as this could, at best, be considered utter balderdash!

Those sorts of things never happen in Backwardsworld where good news is bad, bad news is worse, and the obvious pick of the litter is ignored for the runt.

/s

Naturally, I'll take these bumps anyway they come and keep on HODLing.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Apple Feed is now pushing Business Insider article on GF Berlin 6 month delay. No link provided to this filth, you can look it up if needed. So Business Insider is citing Automobilwoche who is in turn is citing "company sources" who in turn "decline to comment". What hot horseradish this is. These articles show signs of desparation.

"Tesla CEO Elon Musk has given his German team six more months to start production at its delayed factory near Berlin, the German weekly Automobilwoche reported, citing company sources.
A Tesla spokeswoman declined to comment on the report, referring to last month's official statement by the carmaker that put the start of production at the Gruenheide site towards the end of 2021."

And look at the photo (above) they provide of the GF Berlin in their article, a dead giveaway. When was that, October 2020? When Tesla itself provides a compelling up to date photo of GF Berlin as part of their April 26th release of Q1 2021 financials (shown below). Business Insider should be ashamed of themselves.

The knowledge and information shared on TMC is invaluable. Thank you all for your posts, for the posts I agree with as well as the posts I do not agree with. The supression of reality on all things Tesla give all of us here on TMC a monetary advantage to profit from misinformation and FUD spewed out by the Media and those who pay into their coffers.

 

[lascavarian]

Of course Ford trucks will not disappear instantly from the roads. Their resale value will plummet, so plenty will sell used. But that won't keep Ford alive.

What owners will avoid is losing money on a trade-in therefore just keep the truck. Ford will have a robust service business for years after they sell their last ICE vehicle IMO.

 

[-=buzz=-]

Apple Feed is now pushing Business Insider article on GF Berlin 6 month delay. No link provided to this filth, you can look it up if needed. So Business Insider is citing Automobilwoche who is in turn is citing "company sources" who in turn "decline to comment". What hot horseradish this is. These articles show signs of desparation.

"Tesla CEO Elon Musk has given his German team six more months to start production at its delayed factory near Berlin, the German weekly Automobilwoche reported, citing company sources.
A Tesla spokeswoman declined to comment on the report, referring to last month's official statement by the carmaker that put the start of production at the Gruenheide site towards the end of 2021."

View attachment 658942

And look at the photo (above) they provide of the GF Berlin in their article, a dead giveaway. When was that, October 2020? When Tesla itself provides a compelling up to date photo of GF Berlin as part of their April 26th release of Q1 2021 financials (shown below). Business Insider should be ashamed of themselves.

View attachment 658944
The knowledge and information shared on TMC is invaluable. Thank you all for your posts, for the posts I agree with as well as the posts I do not agree with. The supression of reality on all things Tesla give all of us here on TMC a monetary advantage to profit from misinformation and FUD spewed out by the Media and those who pay into their coffers.

Rumors regarding delays in Berlin are, that instead of waiting for the official approval/permits of the original plans and filing changes immediately afterwards, Tesla couldn't/wouldn't wait any longer and decided to file updated plans now.
Sadly this resets a number of permit processes like environmental studies and public display of the plans with a response period and subsequent reconciliation of raised issues.
That was one of the issues Tesla pointed out in their input to an ongoing court case regarding the german permitting processes.

 

[capster]

Trucks aren't phones. Every mm on a smart/cell phone is precious. There is plenty of room for buttons on a truck dash.

Truck purchases aren't rational decisions. At least not the $40k-$100k types.

Small margin fleet sales of $27k work trucks are rational decisions.

Retail truck purchases are emotional decisions. Even what anthropologist call tribal cultural decisions.

Getting a F Series owner to switch to Silverado is a bridge too far most times. That is switching bands not tribes.

Asking an F Series owner to buy a Cybertruck is like asking him to switch from the Midwestern tribe or Southern tribe to the California tribe. And then the Cybertruck design is like asking him to get a face tattoo signifying his new allegiance.

This will not happen in 10 years much less five. Yes, there will be exceptions. Largely, F Series, Silverado and Ram owners that also own EVs and HEVs that do in fact just need the utility of a truck but otherwise don't see themselves as members of those tribes. Slowly convincing the youngest members of the Southern and Midwest tribes is likely.

I read here not too long ago that the unveil of Model 3 would suck up so much demand it would bankrupt at least one legacy automaker. Maybe two. Then it became once Model 3 was in mass production it will kill at least a couple of legacy automakers. Then ,well, Model Y.

I believe Tesla will sell every Cybertruck they can make without discount. But it will largely go to non Detroit pickup owners. Japanese brand truck owners. Everyday sedan, crossover, and small SUV owners that want the utility of a pickup but weren't willing to pay the fuel weekly of an ICE pickup when they only needed the utility occasionally. Or didn't see themselves as members of the Midwestern or Southern tribes. Or "I don't listen to Country music and have sex with my sister" members of the California and New York tribes.

I know I will get a billion disagrees. Reality isn't subject to a vote on message boards.

As you say the choice is irrational in the large majority of buyers which I would call a fashion decision, though some might bridle at such terminology.

I would generally agree with your conclusion but for some things that you gloss over. The Cybertruck offers qualitatively superior performance and at least one substantial new function: autonomous driving.

Lots of dedicated horse and buggy owners might have taken longer than others to switch to the automobile, but I doubt it was more than a handful of years in the large majority of cases.

Unless you believe that Ford, GM, or anybody else is going to be bringing out mass quantities of autonomous electric pickups in short order, there’s going to be a shift. Maybe Ford and GM will be able to position themselves so that they don’t die, but the history of technological market disruption suggests the odds aren’t on their side.

Besides, Tesla can bring out a traditional looking pickup in quantity before anyone else if necessary.

Fashion often changes rapidly especially at times of societal stress and change. So I think you are overconfident of your position. [Edit: Few are going to be willing to be seen as trapped in the past.]

Even deep rooted societal structures in very tradition bound societies can change drastically in short order given the right conditions—especially if there is a powerful agent for change. Consider for example The dissolution of the monasteries in the 16th century by Henry VIII In Britain.

 

[st_lopes]

What owners will avoid is losing money on a trade-in therefore just keep the truck. Ford will have a robust service business for years after they sell their last ICE vehicle IMO.

I think you mean dealerships and parts suppliers will.

 

[AudubonB]

Weekend semi off-topic.

In honor of all the Cybertruck discussion and the Austin Gigafactory, I thought it appropriate to share the iconic car of my childhood. Dad had a long spell as US Naval Attaché to NATO, and after Berlin and Paris, his last post in Europe was in London. So he came back with a brand-new 1952 AUSTIN, which certainly must take the honors as the Cybervehicle of that era. He even got it in left-hand drive, somehow.
Best part: those illuminated flippers in the B-pillar (you can just see the lhs if you look closely), that popped up when you activated the turn signal. Take that, you No-Side-View-Mirror wannabes. The Austin didn't have those mirrors, either.
Worst part: when 4-yo me fell out of the front door as we careened down the _____'s steep and curvy driveway and the door popped open. Seat belts? What are those?

 

[capster]

...
The advent of the Mini-van might be a worthy example of something "nobody wanted" yet became ubiquitous over a short period of time. (think Danny Di Vito and John Travolta in Get Shorty, "this is the Cadillac of minivans")
...

A marketing VP at Chrysler once told me something like "Yeah, lots of folks buy minivans because they‘re so practical with kids—but then people get the hell out of them as soon as they can."

 

[Lessmog]

Apple Feed is now pushing Business Insider article on GF Berlin 6 month delay. No link provided to this filth, you can look it up if needed. So Business Insider is citing Automobilwoche who is in turn is citing "company sources" who in turn "decline to comment". What hot horseradish this is. These articles show signs of desparation.

"Tesla CEO Elon Musk has given his German team six more months to start production at its delayed factory near Berlin, the German weekly Automobilwoche reported, citing company sources.
A Tesla spokeswoman declined to comment on the report, referring to last month's official statement by the carmaker that put the start of production at the Gruenheide site towards the end of 2021."

View attachment 658942

And look at the photo (above) they provide of the GF Berlin in their article, a dead giveaway. When was that, October 2020? When Tesla itself provides a compelling up to date photo of GF Berlin as part of their April 26th release of Q1 2021 financials (shown below). Business Insider should be ashamed of themselves.

View attachment 658944
The knowledge and information shared on TMC is invaluable. Thank you all for your posts, for the posts I agree with as well as the posts I do not agree with. The supression of reality on all things Tesla give all of us here on TMC a monetary advantage to profit from misinformation and FUD spewed out by the Media and those who pay into their coffers.

BS Inside is an old acquaintance here.

Pardon me if I don't rush to check the author, but there are more than one "excellent" "competent" "news" "journalists" in their employ with "no" secret mission but a "devotion" to "truth" in "writing".

If anything, I would read those damp, overused tea leaves as an indication of a rising TSLA SP being imminent. Just as soon not, though. Thanks for the tip!

 

[capster]

...

Cybertruck's stainless steel body will never rust. Think about what that means for the mission, and what it would have meant for Ford if they had started using stainless steel for car bodies 90 years ago?

...

Ford probably did think what it meant and that’s why they didn’t do it.

 

[capster]

...
BTW, I lived in the midwest for half my life before I moved to California with the pansies. So I have some familiarity with the truck-nut tribe.

Wait, I’m confused; are you referring to the left- or the right-truck-nut tribe here?

 

[aubreymcfato]

EDIT: I see the OP deleted the post to which I replied. For context, this is to address the twitter notion that TSLA's addtion to the S&P 500 ESG index caused Friday's runup in SP (it didn't).

ETFs that track the S&P 500 ESG hold ~0.10% of AUM vs S&P 500 ETFs: (they are tiny)

View attachment 658938

This isn't so much a 'chicken-and-egg' comparison; it a 'brontosaurus-and-egg' comparison.

IMO, it's unlikely that ESG purchases by ETFs lead to 40M shares traded and +7% intraday run of TSLA on Friday. But let's watch how the S&P 500 ESG index tracks over Q2. All buying is good (in general).

However, whatever accumulation for ESG 500 would have occured during the closing cross on the Friday before inclusion, similar to the way Fri Dec 18, 2020 was a 231M share trading day prior to TSLA inclusion in the S&P 500 (in effect at the start of Mon, Dec 21, 2020).

Cheers!

This is good news. Years ago i asked a ESG fund manager if they invested in Tesla and she said it did not meet the criteria. Good to see this change, ESG investing is growing fast. I'd bet Hiro Mizuno bears some responsability, he's an expert in the area.

 

[dhanson865]

What owners will avoid is losing money on a trade-in therefore just keep the truck. Ford will have a robust service business for years after they sell their last ICE vehicle IMO.

Ford dealers will, ford suppliers will, Ford won't.

 

[lascavarian]

I think you mean dealerships and parts suppliers will.

Warranty work is funded by the mothership. The mothership has set-aside reserves for warranty for a few years plus IP. Built into pricing is profit on parts, training etc.

There will be some horrible years but there might be a path forward if the product delivers value.

 

[dhanson865]

Warranty work is funded by the mothership. The mothership has set-aside reserves for warranty for a few years plus IP. Built into pricing is profit on parts, training etc.

There will be some horrible years but there might be a path forward if the product delivers value.

If you mean there will be work to do yes, there will be, but "set aside reserves" lead to losses not profits and that isn't a robust business in my mind

Ford will have a robust service business for years after they sell their last ICE vehicle IMO.

So if robust = lots of work for the dealers and lots of profit for suppliers, yep I agree.

But if robust = profit for Ford somehow, then I disagree.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Sadly this resets a number of permit processes like environmental studies and public display of the plans with a response period and subsequent reconciliation of raised issues.

This has not yet been decided, per @avoigt on his twitter. German authorities may or may not decide further public hearings are necessary. But this has NOT been decided, so not SAD.

 

[st_lopes]

Warranty work is funded by the mothership. The mothership has set-aside reserves for warranty for a few years plus IP. Built into pricing is profit on parts, training etc.

There will be some horrible years but there might be a path forward if the product delivers value.

Echoing @dhanson865 providing warranty service does not generate any profit for Ford. It only does if the actual warranty costs are less than they had estimated at time of sale. Even then, there would be no cash in flow to Ford, just an accounting entry to release accrued liabilities for warranty reserves.

So, like it or not, if Ford doesn’t successfully transition to EV in this decade, it will run out of money.

 

[Prunesquallor]

It looks like LoraK is on the job. Rest easy.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1388587746004983808