Thumper
Active Member
I wouldn't mind a major SP swoon right now so I can do a ROTH conversion I should have done long ago.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
The funny thing is, when I Google "How to Bet Against Elon Musk", the German story doesn't come up. But the first 20 or so hits are to stories indicating it's not considered a good idea to bet against Elon, billions lost, etc. It's not until my Google search lists a CNN story from 2018 (Take Private) that indicates this might be a good idea by providing 5 reasons to bet against Tesla.
You can't make this stuff up! The German article details how the leveraged short position they are recommending will perform at various levels of decline in share price but, unless that's not the whole article, there is no mention of how much you would lose if TSLA goes up!
I agree. Good comparison. Bottom line:
Ford’s first serious EV has put up a hell of a fight, and as more such models hit the streets—and especially as legacy carmakers gain EV experience—Tesla might find itself playing catch-up. Just not today. “When you move from Mach-E to Model Y,” Loh said, “you feel like you’ve taken a step into the future. The impact of that step is smaller thanks to the amazing job Ford’s done, but there’s no similar sense of wonder when you go from Model Y to Mach-E.” The Mach-E has much to recommend it, but the Model Y takes this comparison by a nose—for now.
And let's not forget. The Mach-E is probably sold at a 20k or so loss.
I welcome the competition. It hastens the demise of ICE. It drives innovation.
I also have full confidence in Tesla innovating at a faster pace than the competition.
HOLDING (not HODL - that to me implies a perceived risk in holding)
$63K vs $56.5K as configured (no tax incentives included). However, MotorTrend seems a bit confused as they had the “$10,000 Autopilot Option”. They did test (and were impressed by) FSD, but referred to it as Autopilot.
The Accountant
Active Member
My current estimate for Q2 2021 can be found here:
teslamotorsclub.com
Highlights are:
Near-future quarterly financial projections
I agree. The credit values are a lot more predictable than analysts are recognizing. The difficulty is that for some reason each EU pool is highly secretive about the terms of each of their agreements. Also Tesla is in a pool that has never met it’s emissions target. I had done a deep dive of...
teslamotorsclub.com
Highlights are:
- Deliveries of 213k (+134% vs PY) is an all-time record
- Auto Revenues double with 103% growth vs PY
- Total Revenues of $12B (+99% vs PY) is an all-time records.
- Gross Profit of $2.7B is an all-time record (more than double the prior year)
- Operating Income of $1.2B is an all-time record (more than triple the prior year)
- GAAP Earnings of $860m is an all-time record (about 8 times higher than prior year at +727% growth)
- Non-Gaap Earnings of 1.3B is an all-time record (almost triple the prior yeat at +192% growth
- EPS GAAP of $0.76 and non-Gaap of $1.16 (both records)
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I would be surprised if it were even close to that much, huge battery notwithstanding (we also need to include the value they gain from emission credits).
Does anyone have any insight how much Mach-e revenue Ford is withholding for warranty expense and how that compares to Tesla (and also to their ICE cars)?
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
That link doesn't take me to the story, it takes me to a page that is an irritating advertisement for an Apple News app. Not normal.
In other words "BUY THE DIP"My current estimate for Q2 2021 can be found here:
Near-future quarterly financial projections
I agree. The credit values are a lot more predictable than analysts are recognizing. The difficulty is that for some reason each EU pool is highly secretive about the terms of each of their agreements. Also Tesla is in a pool that has never met it’s emissions target. I had done a deep dive of...
Highlights are:
- Deliveries of 213k (+134% vs PY) is an all-time record
- Auto Revenues double with 103% growth vs PY
- Total Revenues of $12B (+99% vs PY) is an all-time records.
- Gross Profit of $2.7B is an all-time record (more than double the prior year)
- Operating Income of $1.2B is an all-time record (more than triple the prior year)
- GAAP Earnings of $860m is an all-time record (about 8 times higher than prior year at +727% growth)
- Non-Gaap Earnings of 1.3B is an all-time record (almost triple the prior yeat at +192% growth
- EPS GAAP of $0.76 and non-Gaap of $1.16 (both records)
It is normal for links from Ross. (He gets his new from Apple News and shares those links, which of course allows Apple to track usage.)
There should be a link you can click on that "ad" to get to the real article.
This Berlin delay isn't even confirmed is it? I'm not buying a 6 month delay without a solid reason.
And then post FSD beta drop, we are back to comparing a Model Y to a horse, pun intended.
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
Just the continued sell-off in high growth/high PE stocks, including green energy. Charts across these all look identical. The German FUD, while annoying, is probably not a huge contributing factor to the price action today.
Tesla said to be facing 6-month delay in opening Gigafactory Berlin, based on German report
Tesla’s issues in Germany have now reportedly resulted in a six-month delay of the start of production at Gigafactory Berlin,...
electrek.co
Tesla’s German Plant Delayed Until Next Year: Automobilwoche
Tesla Inc.’s factory outside Berlin won’t start production before the end of January next year due to delays affecting battery pack output, German trade magazine Automobilwoche reported, citing unidentified sources close to the company.
www.bloomberg.com
And previously...https://www.businessinsider.de/wirtschaft/mobility/tesla-minifactory-in-gruenheide-landesregierung-rechnet-auf-jahre-lediglich-mit-12-000-statt-der-versprochenen-40-000-mitarbeiter-b/
It makes sense. If they want to roll out MYs from Berlin with 4680s, and they just confirmed on the latest Earnings Call that 4680 production at scale is a ways off (or at least a few months delayed from their roll out at Battery Day)...then, yeah, it seems unlikely they will be opening in July 2021.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
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