Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dl003]

If there is a link, I can't find it!

I think you have to be a Mac / iPhone user to subscribe to Apple News

 

[thx1139]

This Berlin delay isn't even confirmed is it? I'm not buying a 6 month delay without a solid reason.

I was also thinking wouldnt Tesla have a contingency to still create Model Y at Berlin and Austin incase volumes of 4680 cells arent at high enough level. Couldn they make a structural battery pack with 2170 cells? Maybe not the same level of energy, but still could be producing and selling cars from those factories rather then have them site idle doing nothing.

 

[chiptoe]

I think you have to be a Mac / iPhone user to subscribe to Apple News

Here is a direct link to the Motortrend article: 2021 Ford Mustang Mach-E vs. Tesla Model Y

 

[StealthP3D]

I think you have to be a Mac / iPhone user to subscribe to Apple News

Oh, no. I'm sure I could subscribe - I just don't want to.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The downward and upwards wedges are about to meet, this week or early next week. Whether it goes up or down at that point, I expect it to be a strong move.

Seeing how incredibly blatant what has been going, a bit worried they're gonna be successful in breaking the chart at that wedge point which would break all sorts of momentum. So be cautious anyone playing Q2 Calls. I have a couple July and Sept Calls that I've pretty much written off as total losses at this point cause if it breaks to the downside on that wedge, I could see it being Q4 before it gets back up into the 800/900's.

I still have a hard time seeing them break it to the downside considering Q2's momentum/potential, but Wall St has shown it's strength in manipulation for going on 4 months now.

 

[insaneoctane]

The downward and upwards wedges are about to meet, this week or early next week. Whether it goes up or down at that point, I expect it to be a strong move.

Seeing how incredibly blatant what has been going, a bit worried they're gonna be successful in breaking the chart at that wedge point which would break all sorts of momentum. So be cautious anyone playing Q2 Calls. I have a couple July and Sept Calls that I've pretty much written off as total losses at this point cause if it breaks to the downside on that wedge, I could see it being Q4 before it gets back up into the 800/900's.

I still have a hard time seeing them break it to the downside considering Q2's momentum/potential, but Wall St has shown it's strength in manipulation for going on 4 months now.

If they are successful, it will be time to make lemonade.

 

[22522]

Random thoughts on competitors and stock prices:

1. The ID suspension is the way it is because of poor promotional practices at VW. Bad engineering managers that treat their employees and customers with contempt. With as much time as people put into making cars, the cars should be great, best effort work.
2. That the Ford suspension does not look like a Ford suspension means there is more likely a mistake in the design that could show up as a recall.
3. As Tesla stock vacillates back and forth, people with stop losses will lose. Where is all the money coming from that people make by doing this. The German short sell scheme should not work if nobody willingly decides to throw their money away. Some must be leveraged and forced to sell, or think that moving money at a loss to another instrument that has more upside will cover the loss.

Swing trading makes money, but where is it coming from? New investors getting their lunch money stolen?

SNL may bring in some new lunch money. Maybe they should run a skit on how the stock market talks down the stock and takes their money. I thought Cramer's interview had a humor side to it.

Curt, I think, said something like "Our fellow investors, if they are not educated, are the biggest threat to the stock price."

Elon should maybe warn the new money. If the manipulators want to put as much lunch money on the table after the SNL awareness buzz, they will make the stock price surge starting into the weekend, maybe Thursday, to create an 'I am going to get left behind' feeling for anyone who looks at the stock on Sunday. They should want the lunch money to go in at $740, that way it is pretty easy to milk the stop losses by crashing the price by 10%, or whatever the current investing book suggests for stop loss thresholds.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

My current estimate for Q2 2021 can be found here:

Near-future quarterly financial projections

I agree. The credit values are a lot more predictable than analysts are recognizing. The difficulty is that for some reason each EU pool is highly secretive about the terms of each of their agreements. Also Tesla is in a pool that has never met it’s emissions target. I had done a deep dive of...

teslamotorsclub.com

Highlights are:

• Deliveries of 213k (+134% vs PY) is an all-time record
• Auto Revenues double with 103% growth vs PY
• Total Revenues of $12B (+99% vs PY) is an all-time records.
• Gross Profit of $2.7B is an all-time record (more than double the prior year)
• Operating Income of $1.2B is an all-time record (more than triple the prior year)
• GAAP Earnings of $860m is an all-time record (about 8 times higher than prior year at +727% growth)
• Non-Gaap Earnings of 1.3B is an all-time record (almost triple the prior yeat at +192% growth
• EPS GAAP of $0.76 and non-Gaap of $1.16 (both records)

Thanks!
Even though Berlin may be ... somewhat delayed (it is not progressing as fast as Austin, that's for sure) my guesstimate is that a small test-production will start in the autumn in at least one of the new GFs. So Q3 and A4 should have 'huger' production/delivery numbers.
Even when being pessimistic, the S/X situation has to be resolved in ½ year, which will make the numbers even better.

So, if above very great numbers are what we can hope to se in Q2, even without S/X, and the detractors have gotten wind of this and since we expect 2022 and onward to be even wilder for Tesla (re discussion about Toyota Corolla) then off course the next 2½ months is the best time to spread FUD and short&distort Tesla - before it is, more or less, too late.

The recent and ongoing anti-Tesla campaign makes even more sense now.

 

[22522]

The Y is good looking in person. They should sell a lot of them. (as many as they can make)

 

[ktrivedi70]

My current estimate for Q2 2021 can be found here:

Near-future quarterly financial projections

I agree. The credit values are a lot more predictable than analysts are recognizing. The difficulty is that for some reason each EU pool is highly secretive about the terms of each of their agreements. Also Tesla is in a pool that has never met it’s emissions target. I had done a deep dive of...

teslamotorsclub.com

Highlights are:

• Deliveries of 213k (+134% vs PY) is an all-time record
• Auto Revenues double with 103% growth vs PY
• Total Revenues of $12B (+99% vs PY) is an all-time records.
• Gross Profit of $2.7B is an all-time record (more than double the prior year)
• Operating Income of $1.2B is an all-time record (more than triple the prior year)
• GAAP Earnings of $860m is an all-time record (about 8 times higher than prior year at +727% growth)
• Non-Gaap Earnings of 1.3B is an all-time record (almost triple the prior yeat at +192% growth
• EPS GAAP of $0.76 and non-Gaap of $1.16 (both records)

First of all, thank you for doing this. The value that you bring to this forum is huge.
Secondly, a dumb question. With deliveries up 134% and Revenue up 103% but earnings (GAAP and non-GAAP) up by way more than that, are we starting to see the effects of that Tesla operating leverage we've been hearing about? And if so, can we expect to see that divergence continue?

 

[jerry33]

I agree with this - I can't imagine paying $200 per months for it, unless I was using my car as a robo-taxi, then it's OK

A pay-per-mile would be much more interesting, especially for casual users

I'd much rather pay up front. You can always come up with a one time large amount but the monthly subscription payments are what kills you financially.

 

[jerry33]

I don't have FSD on my SR+. I would probably be willing to pay a few hundred every time I went on a long road trip just for lane changes and NOA.

The problem here is that it takes a bit of time to become used to FSD and how it works. I suspect a number of people will get the subscription, really hate the first two weeks, and then cancel it never to get it again.

 

[-=buzz=-]

Tesla said to be facing 6-month delay in opening Gigafactory Berlin, based on German report

Tesla’s issues in Germany have now reportedly resulted in a six-month delay of the start of production at Gigafactory Berlin,...

electrek.co

Tesla’s German Plant Delayed Until Next Year: Automobilwoche

Tesla Inc.’s factory outside Berlin won’t start production before the end of January next year due to delays affecting battery pack output, German trade magazine Automobilwoche reported, citing unidentified sources close to the company.

www.bloomberg.com

And previously...https://www.businessinsider.de/wirtschaft/mobility/tesla-minifactory-in-gruenheide-landesregierung-rechnet-auf-jahre-lediglich-mit-12-000-statt-der-versprochenen-40-000-mitarbeiter-b/

It makes sense. If they want to roll out MYs from Berlin with 4680s, and they just confirmed on the latest Earnings Call that 4680 production at scale is a ways off (or at least a few months delayed from their roll out at Battery Day)...then, yeah, it seems unlikely they will be opening in July 2021.

I think this isn't as much about time delay as it is about fundamental changes to the plant layout.
The original plans intended 4 mostly self contained multi story facilities. (Like you can see at Giga Texas.) Due to water protection rules, they where denied to use pilings, which turned most of the initial factory into a single story facility with additional support buildings. There simply isn't enough space left to 4x from that...

 

[JRP3]

South Buffalo Tesla plant faces backlash for hiring efforts

Assemblyman Pat Burke wants Tesla to return state funding.

spectrumlocalnews.com

Burke says people are tired of repeated issues at the site and Tesla should look to return some of the $950 million in state funding it received for the factory.

"The whole project has been mired in corruption and scandal and excuses and excuses. We're tired of it. It's reasonable to say, well the pandemic affected this, but when you've got so many ugly things on the other end of that, that's when people are like, it doesn't pass the sniff test anymore," said Burke.

 

[woodisgood]

I’ve noticed the FSD videos of 8.2 have more or less stopped being produced from the usual Youtubers. This leads me to believe they’ve gotten 9.0 and are currently using it and making videos to be released when the NDA is lifted.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

South Buffalo Tesla plant faces backlash for hiring efforts

Assemblyman Pat Burke wants Tesla to return state funding.

spectrumlocalnews.com

The famous hard data point of "sniff test". Lol

Tesla has certainly be doing about the minimum to meet requirements at Buffalo, but these clowns should be wary of pushing Elon out right as things begin to scale. Tesla now has the cash to dip right down to Philadelphia and set up shop in the recently exploded and now shuttered oil refinery. We'd be happy to match their tax breaks and we're not land locked!

Infinite room to expand and massive supplies of both high-end engineering students and alcoholic line workers. Free cheesesteaks.

 

[avoigt]

I don't know what is going on behind the scenes. But... Berlin is just not progressing very much, day by day, week by week. (Caveat: From what can be observed via drones.)
Not compared to Austin. Only thing that slowed that down was the surprise winter.

There might be good reasons: They might be busy inside. The non-temporary permit may turn up soon. But visible progress just seems ... slow.

Sorry but that's incorrect. Tesla has even got a permit to work now weekends and in 3 shifts on the Giga Berlin construction site. The only reason why you might believe it's going slow compared with Teslas is simply that the outside buildings in Berlin are to a large extend finished for phase 1. The media is trying to create a false narrative here too. Be careful all, what you read and believe.

 

[JRP3]

and we're not land locked!

Neither is the Tesla RiverBend site

 

[CorneliusXX]

I don't know what is going on behind the scenes. But... Berlin is just not progressing very much, day by day, week by week. (Caveat: From what can be observed via drones.)
Not compared to Austin. Only thing that slowed that down was the surprise winter.

There might be good reasons: They might be busy inside. The non-temporary permit may turn up soon. But visible progress just seems ... slow.

It slow speed has felt the same to me too - But looking at this weeks drone videos there does appear to be a lot of work done on the paint shop internally and that tends to be one of the items with the longest lead time to start production. Some examples from this week's videos. credit Tobias Lindh and flybrandenburg

The casting machine area feels like it's taking forever with still no roof on the building - but there appears to be two machines installed - which should be plenty to get production under way given that is the same amount as they have in Fremont and they are pumping out vehicles there.

The BiW and GA facilities have plenty of work to be done

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

Sorry but that's incorrect. Tesla has even got a permit to work now weekends and in 3 shifts on the Giga Berlin construction site. The only reason why you might believe it's going slow compared with Teslas is simply that the outside buildings in Berlin are to a large extend finished for phase 1. The media is trying to create a false narrative here too. Be careful all, what you read and believe.

Thanks for the correction.
I have deleted my post.