Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mengy]

Out of my depth for the specifics with this comment, but here goes anyway...

Tesla doesn’t need Wall Street anymore. They can self fund their mission going forward and adjust the growth speed as necessary. So, they technically don’t care what games the MM/shortz play. Almost. Tesla does offer their workers stock options. Tesla wants the workers happy with options to avoid the constant clawing of the unions from making any inroads. As long as the stock does well over a certain period of time, the workers are happy and the union is likely avoided. So while Tesla financially doesn’t need Wall Street, they need Wall Street to fairly value the stock- they are creating huge stockholder value. What’s “fair” though? What P/E is justified these days? If Tesla continues to be the juggernaut that it is, as long as the employees can weather any manipulation that Wall Street cooks up, and still be positive about their compensation, Tesla doesn’t need Wall Street.

I guess my point is that the employee options still ties Tesla to Wall Street a bit. Without that piece, they could totally not give a F.

This is true, Tesla is printing money now at an accelerating pace quarter to quarter.

It's hard to believe that just a couple of years ago I was still worried about whether or not Tesla would survive. I don't worry about that anymore.

 

[-=buzz=-]

But the best part is no part.
KISS, as they used to say. No particular need to complicate things waiting for the soon-to-come solution, IMHO.
It's not really as if Tesla needs more money quick, is it?
Though I confess I would prefer my MIE MY sooner than later ... But a good one, please!

Yes, but the scenario is: use a fallback/alternative or idle Berlin&Austin

I just wanted to correct the notion, that a structural pack needs to be 4680 honeycomb.

 

[Lessmog]

Yes, but the scenario is: use a fallback/alternative or idle Berlin&Austin

I just wanted to correct the notion, that a structural pack needs to be 4680 honeycomb.

I just don't see the desperation as warranted. Yes, battery cell holdup may delay start of production somewhat. We cannot know (nor can anyone else) by how much, or if it even matters. Start of production will certainly not be at full blast anyway. On the other hand, making detours into differentiated pack structures will create a swell of future problems in keeping tabs of all variants.

In my view, much better to let things run their course. Wait and see.

Don't panic. Trajectory is good.

 

[thx1139]

The new battery tech presented on battery day consist of multiple changes, one of which is the format (4680), while others include tabless design, dry-electrode manufacturing and chemistry changes. The larger cell format itself only requires the tabless design to eliminate fundamental problems arising from the large cell (long winding of electrode films), so those 2 components together could be implemented without dry-electrode and chemistry changes. Such solution would not get all the benefits presented, but would still be better than current battery cell tech.

As far as I know, Tesla does not have any problem achieving those 2 components at volume production (4680 cell format + tabless). On the other hand, they still have some scaling problems (yield / production speed / quality) for the dry-electrodes, which they are working on. In theory, they could choose to go ahead with 4680 format (including structural battery design) using the old wet slury electrode technology. However, that would require much larger foot-print to add energy-hungry drying owens to the factories.

So, making structural packs from 2170 is not on the table, that would make no sense. If they want to compromise they would go with tabless 4680 but using wet slury electrodes. That would mean giving up some cost saving on both the CapEx for the factories as well as on the cell production (i.e. per cell cost), but still better than sticking with the current 2170 cells.

I am thinking more about the factory changes that will be in place for the foundation of the Model Y to be a front cast a structural pack and a rear cast. I am thinking if you can swap put a 4680 cast for a 2170 cast then the factory for creating the foundation of the car wouldnt have to be changed.

 

[Artful Dodger]

They can certainly build a structural pack using 2170s and additional steel inserts.

It's not that simple. 2170 cells are cooled from the sides of the can, while 4680 cells are cooled through the bottom via the copper electrode. It would be impractical to redesign the cooling architecture of the pack just to substitute cells.

The following thermal analysis was conducted by a mechanical engineer back in Sep 2020 after the Battery Day presentation:

Tesla 4680 Cell: Thermal Analysis Suggests Unique Cooling System Design

On Battery day, Tesla told us the biggest barrier to a larger format cell is cooling the cell, and its new tabless electrode design fixes that problem.

insideevs.com

"The 2170 in Model 3 and Model Y is cooled by a fluid-filled cooling snake that pulls the heat out of the sides of the cell. This cooling snake eats up space in the pack limiting its volumetric efficiency.​

​

"Our heat transfer engineer’s calculations verify that there is NOT sufficient heat transfer to effectively cool the 4680 cells with the cooling snake concept used in Model Y and Model 3. The calculations also indicate that there IS sufficient heat transfer to pull the heat from the top and bottom of the cells.​

​

"How do they cool the cells now if they don’t pull the heat out the side of the cell?​

​

"The new tabless design has an excellent cooling path out of the ENDS of the cells. The electrode’s themselves make perfect cooling plates, which will allow Tesla to pull heat from the center of the cell and out the top and bottom of the cell.​

So existing 2170 cells are not drop-in replacements for tabless 4680 cells. The structural pack has a integrated cooling plate design rather than the liquid cooling "snake" used in current Models 3/Y without a structural pack.

Elon has already said Berlin will start with the structural pack. Any notion of a temporary substitution of tabless 4680s with existing 2170 cells mean you have not studied how the technology works.

HINT: It don't work that way.

Cheers!

 

[-=buzz=-]

I wish I could figure out people like that. Was it originally a short position gone bad? A negative interaction that caused a cycle of antagonism? Jealousy?

Don't know about Lora.
But Adam Jonas used to be a big cheerleader with glorious valuations and prospective market opportunities.
Then he got knocked down a few times during earnings calls, when he fished for confirmation on his speculative new market entries/developments/products..
That, or MS went net short, who knows...

 

[ZeApelido]

This Berlin delay isn't even confirmed is it? I'm not buying a 6 month delay without a solid reason.

Dude, has the media ever been wrong?

 

[Unpilot]

Ok 25 more...first time using margin...but I'm pissed off ...so there.

 

[ZeApelido]

I so hate this game. A complete waste of global resources.

• Put all stock markets on a 200ms clock, 100ms (blind) bids, 100ms matching, next round. No front-running and paying for faster access to make more money!
• 1cent transaction tax. Millions of iceberg orders and HFT will cost you money.
• Minimum holding time 10 seconds. No subsecond HFTs running wild.

Sadly it will only ever be a dream.
It's likelier that Lora Kolodny proposes to Elon.( But first, hell has to freeze over...)

Maybe this is too much for this forum, but

I love you.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

I am thinking more about the factory changes that will be in place for the foundation of the Model Y to be a front cast a structural pack and a rear cast. I am thinking if you can swap put a 4680 cast for a 2170 cast then the factory for creating the foundation of the car wouldnt have to be changed.

Quite apart from the issues associated with changing the design and manufacturing process at this late stage, Elon has stated several times that Tesla are constrained by the supply of 2170s. Where would they get the additional 2170s to manufacture 10-20k Berlin Y per month and a similar number in Austin a few months later?

 

[ZsoZso]

That's not what Drew Baglino said during the 2021 Q1 Conference Call:

"Yes, thanks. Just one thing I would add is there's been a lot of questions about yields. Actually, I noticed people asking about that. The yield progress has been really strong every day, and we were really still in commissioning phase.​

​

"We were really still in commissioning phase with most of the tools to the point where we're confident that the yield trajectory aligns with our internal cost projections. We did talk about yield also at Battery Day, which is one of the reasons why it's useful to check in on that. It takes a while, as Elon just mentioned, to go from prototype to production. And it's not just parts.​

​

"It's processes, it's equipment. But as we've matured the process equipment, we've gotten to where we need to be on the yield side."​

All right, you win, I know nothing about this topic*, just imagining things...

Spoiler: rambling of a random guy on the internet

You might imagine some random member of the 8-people engineering team working on the dry-electrode process improvement at Kato road, may say something like:
It is a problem of combination. They can get high yield, they can get high throughput, they can also get high quality cells -- just not all at the same time
The typical: do you want fast, cheap, good quality product ? Pick 2 out of those 3.

* I have no official source for any of this information

 

[lafrisbee]

OT
To lighten up the day..and because I think I might have come up with a skit for SNL


Go Old School.
Bring back the coneheads. Have them attempting to stop Elon from having Earthlings leave Earth... They could skit them intentionally wrecking the SN Ships. Bribing Bernie Sanders with Eternal life in a Portrait of Dorian grey kind of way.. And when all else fails they have a breakthrough...they infiltrate the neural link program and have a time table whereby when Elon gets his neural link they will finally control his brain.
EDIT: But it all falls apart when the younger Conehead female becomes pregnant with Elon's child...you guessed it, Grimes gives birth to...

X Æ A-12. A good traditional conehead name.​

 

[aubreymcfato]

Out of my depth for the specifics with this comment, but here goes anyway...

Tesla doesn’t need Wall Street anymore. They can self fund their mission going forward and adjust the growth speed as necessary. So, they technically don’t care what games the MM/shortz play. Almost. Tesla does offer their workers stock options. Tesla wants the workers happy with options to avoid the constant clawing of the unions from making any inroads. As long as the stock does well over a certain period of time, the workers are happy and the union is likely avoided. So while Tesla financially doesn’t need Wall Street, they need Wall Street to fairly value the stock- they are creating huge stockholder value. What’s “fair” though? What P/E is justified these days? If Tesla continues to be the juggernaut that it is, as long as the employees can weather any manipulation that Wall Street cooks up, and still be positive about their compensation, Tesla doesn’t need Wall Street.

I guess my point is that the employee options still ties Tesla to Wall Street a bit. Without that piece, they could totally not give a F.

OTOH, keep in mind that Elon himself said it preferred a lower SP for the workers - if I understand correctly it granted them more stock options...
Of course, the FUD gets under the skin of everyone: when friends and family think Tesla is going to collapse everyone doubts and stock options aren't that appealing anymore.
So while I think a lower SP is good (more shares for the workers) the FUD part is not.

 

[-=buzz=-]

It's not that simple. 2170 cells are cooled from the sides of the can, while 4680 cells are cooled through the bottom via the copper electrode. It would be impractical to redesign the cooling architecture of the pack just to substitute cells.

Then, if you were going to make tabless 2170 cells on a new line, why not just make a 4680 line? That seems to be precisely what Panasonic is doing at Giga Nevada.

Well you've got 10mm to work with (4680s wiring & cooling plate) and i don't think the current 3/Y modules need more than 5mm per side. Cooling is integrated in the module, hook it up at the front/ back of the pack instead of the cooling plate. Add in some I-beams between the modules...

This is all ballpark engineering guesswork. Whether the details fit, only Tesla knows. And it certainly needs development effort.
We'll see once Berlin/Austin start production.

So existing 2170 cells are not drop-in replacements for tabless 4680 cells. The structural pack has a integrated cooling plate design rather than the liquid cooling "snake" used in current Models 3/Y without a structural pack.

Elon has already said Berlin will start with the structural pack. Any notion of a temporary substitution of tabless 4680s with existing 2170 cells mean you have not studied how the technology works

I explicitly said this isn't about replacing the cells within the honeycomb structure, but to create a steel frame/box with the same external dimensions as the 4680 pack and sufficient load bearing to replace the honeycomb without compromising the vehicle structure as a whole. Then fill the space within this frame with Model3/Y modules..

I fully understand that this has drawbacks! But we were talking about fallbacks if 4680 production somehow fails...

• Source 4680-cells from suppliers. -> Requiring transfer and qualification of tabless technology? Different chemistries.
• Build something with what you've got,which doesn't affect the rest of your design/production line. -> 2170s in a 4680-sized box...

You argue some minute aspects of this discourse without following the main arguments.
I'll leave it at that..

 

[Curt Renz]

Some buying with volume has been coming in during this hour for TSLA. I see no fresh positive news, which was essentially the case during the big up move on Friday.

This takes TSLA back above its 50-day SMA (simple moving average) of $684, which had been supportive for a while, but was pierced to the downside earlier today. Closing above that SMA could be encouraging.

 

[jerry33]

The Cybertruck looks the way it does because of aerodynamics (range) and low cost of construction. How many "traditional" shape truck buyers will be willing to pay more for less performance to have the old look? We will see....

My guess is very few. I can recall how quickly the pre-WWII style cars (tall and narrow) went after the 1950's style cars (short and wide) arrived. You looked at the older cars and thought "Oh, old car". Now it will be "Oh, old truck".

 

[jerry33]

I have no inside info on how Ford models their business. I do know that I made a profit from warranty service. Whatever is not pulled from reserves for warranty for actual service at the end of warranty is income dollars from the customer to the bottom line.

Warranty service can be a loss if the product is poor. Reserves are real money and a quality product that exits warranty with minimal draws against reserves delivers profit.

Warranty is really a service contract (simple view) purchased by production divisions for the product they deliver to Marketing. Marketing sets pricing by simply adding the warranty into the MSRP. With every sale, deferred revenue flows in for these multi-year contracts.

I would also guess that dealers are obligated to purchase repair parts from the mothership for out of warranty repairs and this is also profitable for the mothership In most cases.

Can this save the mothership, no. But it may provide extra months to figure out how cut back and fix the business, merge, etc

As long as Ford's CEO and other top execs get their golden parachute, nothing else matters.

 

[jerry33]

I haven't seen this posted, apologies if someone else has

Tesla Economist / "What Does Q1 Tell Us Tesla's Business is Really Worth Now, if we Remove the Cost of Growth?" (P/E of 50 now, 10 later)

(timestamp to effects of the investment/growth, go earlier for full argument, 14 minutes play)

His argument is that if you stop investment now, what P/E ratio do you get based on current situation? His conclusion is around P/E of 50 now,

If you add in the growth aspects - new models energy etc, he suggests a P/E of 10 using that expanded level of revenue

I just wondered about others' opinions, especially @The Accountant

P/E ratio is just silly for a growth company. All that should be cared about is cash flow, cash reserves, and execution. P/E ratio is for mature (stagnant) companies.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

This is so dumb. Car and Driver claims Tesla still not making money building cars because they look at earnings after all the deductions and completely ignore the fact that before stock based compensation (and other deductions), they made a ton of money. I'm glad CleanTechnica is busting this myth, but the fact that the myth is still so pervasive is annoying.

Tesla Myth: "Tesla Is Losing Money Making Cars" - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! Around the end of ... [continued]

cleantechnica.com

 

[Tslynk67]

A few more @680.69... hard for me to believe at this point in the game.

You caught the bottom beautifully there - I was too soon, bought 50x @ $690