Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Lol, whatever tomorrow may bring, today they're in love with the 50-d Moving Avg.

View attachment 659233

... then today, shortzes tagged the Lower-BB just as expected:

Man, you can see wedgie's moves coming like a long, slow train... woo, woo! Just play by the 10 Rules and you'll be fine.

Cheers!

TL;dr for those who need a refresher:

• Control your Emotions
• Trade the Stock Channel
• Have Patience
• Market Makers Rig the Game
• Don't Overtrade Options
• Avoid Margin
• Expect the Lie
• Be Honest* with Yourself

*Honesty means, once a quarter, add up all your trades (losses and gains) and divide by the number of hours you spent trading. Compare that to the gains you would have made if you had just "bought right'n'held tight". Very few traders beat the game over the long run. Best example: Jim Chanos.

 

[euro2012]

I disagree.
1. First they ignored Tesla.
2. Then they laughed at Tesla.
3. Then they fight Tesla.
4. Then Tesla won!
5. Now they whine and complain relentlessly about Tesla. My shoelace became untied. The dog ate my homework. Making BEVs is really hard. Tesla only makes money because of ZEV credits and Bitcoin. Tesla's AP and FSD is not fair since we can't beat or match it, we don't even understand how it can work without Lidar.

There is no stage 3. They chose not to fight, not to bring to market anything worth while. It is an unfair competition after all, an upstart Silicon Valley company taking on 100 year old multi-billion dollar industries. Clearly we are full on in the final stage 5 where they whine and complain themselves away into oblivion.

Make no mistake about it that Tesla has already won. Their first four production vehicles produced are the four safest vehicles ever manufactured according to NHTSA results. Their first four production vehicles have the highest range and best KwH battery rating (kwH needed per mile) than any other BEV ever made. And Tesla is improving with each upgrade, with each vehicle produced. If anyone is basing a Tesla win on its share price reaching XXX or XXXX, then you will be disappointed 50% of the time. And that is not on Tesla or Elon, that is on you. The relentless discussion on TMC on the hourly share price is a major distraction. The battle has already been won, and as time goes on and Tesla continues to fulfill its Mission by using its winning approach, its share price will be reflected accordingly. It is time. Only time. Enjoy the ride.

While true, I believe ‘Then they fight’ to refer more to those with A LOT more to lose, otherwise known as the fossil fuel industry (rather than direct competitors to Tesla).

 

[Artful Dodger]

Happy May The 4th.

Beware the Revenge of the 6th.

Cheers!

 

[Chunky Jr.]

It looked like it was going to be another ugly loss, but a late rally closed the gap some to make it less ugly but a loss nonetheless. Maybe the late rally will spill over to tomorrow and break the 2 game losing streak.

Today
Score:	673.60
Margin of W/L:	-11.30
Attendance:	29,592,605
High - Low:	25.75
Season
Record:	42-42
Total margin of wins:	952.84
Total margin of losses:	-984.91
YTD gain/loss:	-32.07	-4.54%
Best Win:	110.58	Mar 9
Worst Loss:	-68.83	Jan 11
Last 10:	4-6
Streak:	L2
Avg margin of victory:	22.69
Avg margin of defeat:	-23.45
Avg Attendance:	32,797,018
Avg Attendance of Last 10:	30,741,053
Avg High - Low:	40.36
Avg H - L of Last 10:	29.10

 

[JRP3]

Some valid points made about Tesla messaging confusion, specifically around the recent crash event.

 

[dhanson865]

Check out Trevors animation, it made quite the correction near OCISLY

https://twitter.com/x/status/1389672172747165699

I did not watch the launch, (boring, reliable now), only caught the landing. Coming in, I swore they were short a few hundred feed "south." Must be the lens playing tricks.

They do that on purpose, the thinking is that it reduces risk

* aim for the barge and have an engine failure you blow up the barge
* aim for the barge and have no issues you land OK

* aim for the water near the barge and have an engine failure you don't hit the barge, you blow up in the water
* aim for the water near the barge and correct at the last second and you land OK.

in the second pair of results the barge is safe either way.

 

[ZeApelido]

Hundreds of of thousands of cars being recalled for fire risk.



Not Teslas.

I'm sure there will be a big hullabaloo about this.

Hyundai recalls over 390,000 vehicles in U.S. and Canada for possible engine fires

Hyundai is recalling more than 390,000 vehicles in the U.S. and Canada for two problems that can cause engine fires. In one recall, owners are being told to...

www.marketwatch.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

Re when will the robotaxi take place - and where: yes, you are right, it being in Las Vegas first is all speculation on my part. We do know that TBC (Boring CO) is planning use supervised Model Y's for the Las Vegas Loop tunnels, and I don't see Tesla /TBC spending extra resources to design and produce their minibus till the C19 episode is over for good.

So it is only a stretch guessing that Tesla will extend the area covered by the MY's from the tunnels only to also include the LV road surface...would only be the logical thing to do. Especially while the rest of the loop is still under approval/ design/ construction. What better place to start robotaxis when all you have to do is just remove the drivers; at that time Tesla and the NHTSA will have historical, documented data on the safety of driverless Teslas. The future may turn out different, but for now I would put my odds at better than 80/20.

Actually Elon/TBC has already said they plan to operate the Las Vegas CC fleet autonomously, removing the human drivers when FSD is ready.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well.. on 23rd there is the next meeting where some people rumor that they will enact rues to get the average CO2-emissions to BELOW 43g/km in 2030 (goal this year: 95g). Those numbers are always fleet-average. So if you keep on selling trucks/Semis/... you have to offset those with EVs or by credits from EV-Makers.

Yes, definately FUD for Stellantis. The value of their 395K hybrids vs only 4K true BEVs is going to shrink up dramatically with upcoming EU regulatory changes:

Once 'green' plug-in hybrid cars suddenly look like ... - Reuters https://www.reuters.com › business › retail-consumer

 

[PeterJA]

TSLA: German readers urged to help bring Elon Musk ‘to his knees’ by betting against Tesla

Tesla is no stranger to entities that are actively betting against it. Being one of the most shorted companies for years means that it is used to attacks from several fronts. But recently, Tesla ended up on the receiving end of what could very well be the strangest efforts against it to date...

www.teslarati.com

Even on his knees, Elon would tower over these mosquitoes hovering and whining and trying to bite.

Many HODLers have waited a long time for Tesla's revenue and stock price to reach the knee of the exponential curve and start to "explode with unrelenting fury" (Ray Kurzweil's phrase). Last year was a thrilling preview, but of course we ain't seen nothin' yet. @The Accountant's Q2 estimates are another hint. Maybe it won't be long before Tesla crushes the mosquitos like a bug.

So bring it on, shorts. Bring Elon to his knees. It won't be the knee that you expect.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I did not watch the launch, (boring, reliable now), only caught the landing. Coming in, I swore they were short a few hundred feed "south." Must be the lens playing tricks.

OT.

Lol, that's WHY they do that intentionally. If everthing is running correctly, then the booster translates horizontally to land on the recovery ship. If something goes wrong, the booster lands in the ocean. That's why the center core of Falcon Heavy didn't dis Troy the landing barge when it came in hot. This IS rocket science, after all.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Fremont flyover - May 3, 2021

The factory is buzzing again: there is new construction behind the GA 4.5 line, refresh S&X and Semi on the track and delivery lot half full. It seems they were painting the delivery lot guiding lines over the weekend - work is still ongoing. Enjoy

Nice to see some refreshed Model S vehicles begin stacking up.

 

[Nocturnal]

Actually Elon/TBC has already said they plan to operate the Las Vegas CC fleet autonomously, removing the human drivers when FSD is ready.

That is an under appreciated bit of synergy. The Vegas tunnel presents both a chance to show the tech to a metric crap ton of people, and provides a very controlled test environment.

I wonder if we might see a platooning type setup in between human and full auto.

 

[insaneoctane]

Hundreds of of thousands of cars being recalled for fire risk.



Not Teslas.

I'm sure there will be a big hullabaloo about this.

Hyundai recalls over 390,000 vehicles in U.S. and Canada for possible engine fires

Hyundai is recalling more than 390,000 vehicles in the U.S. and Canada for two problems that can cause engine fires. In one recall, owners are being told to...

www.marketwatch.com

Fire risk on a Hyundai? I thought only Tesla’s caught fire. /s

 

[Artful Dodger]

Are they attempting 600 this week?
Or are these the fake ones that get pulled last minute to confuse the market?

View attachment 659456

Lol, that is NOT the Order Book; that's the Options Open Interest from YESTERDAY

Options OI changes like the tide; the Order Book changes like the wind.

 

[insaneoctane]

Actually Elon/TBC has already said they plan to operate the Las Vegas CC fleet autonomously, removing the human drivers when FSD is ready.

I think that while many visitors in Las Vegas might be enamored by a self driving car in a tunnel...my goodness what an easy subset of FSD to solve. Stay within the newly painted bright clear lines at up to 35MPH. Even Waymo could do that.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Yes, definately FUD for Stellantis. The value of their 395K hybrids vs only 4K true BEVs is going to shrink up dramatically with upcoming EU regulatory changes:

Once 'green' plug-in hybrid cars suddenly look like ... - Reuters https://www.reuters.com › business › retail-consumer

I’m still confused as to whether Stellantis as a whole got pulled into the Tesla pool, or whether it’s only the FCA component. They were still separate in the last ICCT Market Monitor. PSA-Opel isn’t that far from their target, so the recent comments are not that far off if referring to just PSA-Opel.

But the FCA/Honda pool looks to be in pretty bad shape on its own. Merging PSA-Opel in the pool will help some, but it will still be underwater.

Maybe Stellantis would just prefer to pay the EU fines rather than pay Tesla (I.e., when do you stop paying for your competitor’s new factories?).

 

[Nocturnal]

I think that while many visitors in Las Vegas might be enamored by a self driving car in a tunnel...my goodness what an easy subset of FSD to solve. Stay within the newly painted bright clear lines at up to 35MPH. Even Waymo could do that.

Fortunately, that doesn't matter. A vehicle driving itself in any condition will be seen as magic by all but a few % of the population. Don't forget that we are the weirdos.

 

[Singuy]

I think that while many visitors in Las Vegas might be enamored by a self driving car in a tunnel...my goodness what an easy subset of FSD to solve. Stay within the newly painted bright clear lines at up to 35MPH. Even Waymo could do that.

Except Waymo couldn't...unless if people are into CO poisoning.

 

[RobStark]

Probably 395k PHEV's and 5k BEV's, no batteries otherwise...

But indeed, the other auto-makers must be queuing up to pool with Tesla

It doesn't look like Stellantis gets serious until the end of 2023. It looks similar to VW Group from then on.

Stellantis has also provided an update on its planned battery cell factories. ‘The battery factory in Douvrin, northern France, will start production at the end of 2023 as planned. The second factory at the Opel site in Kaiserslautern, on the other hand, will not start production until the end of 2025. The start of production in Kaiserslautern was originally planned for 2024 but has now been pushed back by at least one year. Together, the two battery cell factories are expected to have an annual production capacity of 50 GWh. Although the group has not revealed further details on how the capacities will be distributed, earlier reports suggest that the capacity could be divided equally between the two plants.

The Automotive Cells Company, a joint venture of the Stellantis Group and the Total subsidiary Saft, is responsible for the development and production of the battery cells and modules. A year ago, the official go-ahead was given for a battery cell pilot production in a factory of the manufacturer Saft in Nersac in the southwest of France. The project benefits from the financial support of 1.3 billion euros from the French and German authorities and received approval from European institutions through an IPCEI project.

The Group’s plans do not stop at the two battery cell plants: Stellantis wants to decide on further plants in Europe and North America before the end of the year. Whereby it is more a question of the locations. The company is already planning a global production capacity of 130 GWh by 2025 and 250 GWh by 2030, and this is only the planned production capacity of the Automotive Cells Company. It is unclear whether Stellantis is also planning with other cell suppliers.

Stellantis reveals key details of electrification plans - electrive.com

The new 14-brand car company Stellantis has given more details about its electrification plans. These include four platforms for electrified models and more battery factories. Stellantis wants to substantially increase sales of electrified cars in Europe from 14 per cent this year, (around...

www.electrive.com