Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
(not so pretty -- not enough colors / dragons / etc) picture time.
I see a pattern emerging on the 1 year chart.
1. breakout ~60% SP increase in 2 weeks => followed by 1 month consolidation
2. breakout ~80% SP increase in 3 weeks => followed by 2.5 months consolidation
3. breakout ~120% SP increase in 10 weeks => followed by ?? months consolidation
View attachment 660076

How long will be the current consolidation cycle ?
Does it scale like the breakout length ? That would be at least 8 months long.
How large will be the next breakout in terms of SP growth ? 180% ?
Puts us over 1,000 pretty quick!
 
  • Like
Reactions: Mike Ambler
The consolidation (flatlining) could easily last until 2022. That's when we'll really see the jump in revenue and profit from the fully armed and operational battle stations Giga Berlin and Giga Texas.

I don't think we'll stay flat for that long. My hunch is we'll be up around the ATH by the end of 2021 going into 2022. This summer and part of fall could stay relatively flat though, but eventually the MM's will wind this up so tight it will have to pop, and I don't think that will last more than six months or so.

But hey I can't tell the future either, lol.
 
(not so pretty -- not enough colors / dragons / etc) picture time.
I see a pattern emerging on the 1 year chart.
1. breakout ~60% SP increase in 2 weeks => followed by 1 month consolidation
2. breakout ~80% SP increase in 3 weeks => followed by 2.5 months consolidation
3. breakout ~120% SP increase in 10 weeks => followed by ?? months consolidation

How long will be the current consolidation cycle ?
Does it scale like the breakout length ? That would be at least 8 months long.
How large will be the next breakout in terms of SP growth ? 180% ?
You gotta take into account of event that happened. For example SP500, there isn't another SP500 to be included again. Just saying
 
The consolidation (flatlining) could easily last until 2022. That's when we'll really see the jump in revenue and profit from the fully armed and operational battle stations Giga Berlin and Giga Texas.
Early 2022 they'll be doing the 4Q21 earnings call confirming nearly 100% growth, a P/E around 220, and an absolute lock for another year of near 100% growth.

I just can't see that failing to be priced in prior to 2022. That's all practically a certainty right now.
 
The Y isn't just a bigger Model 3, it's a whole new level of amazing Tesla car, isn't it? Now I know why Tesla expects it to be the best selling car by revenue in 2022 and by count in 2023.

If you drive a lot on the highway, definitely get FSD. Autopilot is amazing, but Navigate on Autopilot is a huge step up for highway driving.

I've only seen one issue with Model Y that makes it a worse choice than Model 3 (excluding the obvious price difference).

Ear pain/Pressure help Apparently something in the rear half of the design creates a noise that is somewhere between annoying and painful depending on the adjustments of the parts around the hatch and the sensitivity of the driver/passenger that experiences it.

Since not everyone complains about it but you can hear it on a youtube video I'm assuming most just ignore it and on most model Y it's a minor issue.

Literally other than that one possible issue the only reason I know of to not get the Y is the price difference between it and the 3.

I've always assumed I'll end up with a 3 and a Y but pricing after 4680s become common could sway me into getting two of one and zero of the other.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: CorneliusXX
View attachment 660026


the tesla rep told me they expect to receive them not until October, he said they don’t know what is going on, they have never seen so many orders, ever. The last month was crazier than ever for the number of reservations.

The SP is surely not following the same trend as reservations.
Here in Santa Barbara nd Ventura Counties of SoCal, I see more Model Y than Model 3's! Think about it. The Model 3 has been produced for 3 years vs. the Y for barely 1 year.
 
I've only seen one issue with Model Y that makes it a worse choice than Model 3 (excluding the obvious price difference).

Ear pain/Pressure help Apparently something in the rear half of the design creates a noise that is somewhere between annoying and painful depending on the adjustments of the parts around the hatch and the sensitivity of the driver/passenger that experiences it.

Since not everyone complains about it but you can hear it on a youtube video I'm assuming most just ignore it and on most model Y it's a minor issue.

Literally other than that one possible issue the only reason I know of to not get the Y is the price difference between it and the 3.

I've always assumed I'll end up with a 3 and a Y but pricing after 4680s become common could sway me into getting two of one and zero of the other.
I have sensitive ears. I have had zero issues in my brand new Model Y, and that thread made me needlessly worry about getting a Y. It’s a nonissue.
 
Short interest by @ihor3 seems to be of very low quality

Look at the huge discrepancy in the number of shares shorted for March through April shown in https://twitter.com/ihors3/status/1384564135518683138?s=20… and https://twitter.com/ihors3/status/1387426431974641666?s=20…

And, look at this Dec-15-2020 - Dec-31-2020, SI went up by 50% going by Nasdaq and other sources too. But ihor has been sharing very inaccurate data.
If his data was reasonably accurate in that Jan-04 tweet, one would've learnt that the S&P inclusion peak was yet to be reached with so many shorts needing to cover.
I wonder if he's sharing bogus data fooling everyone.

@Artful Dodger You share the view that @ihor's data is inaccurate, right?
 
Last edited:
Short interest by @ihor3 seems to be of very low quality

Look at the huge discrepancy in the number of shares shorted for March through April shown in https://twitter.com/ihors3/status/1384564135518683138?s=20… and https://twitter.com/ihors3/status/1387426431974641666?s=20…

And, look at this Dec-15-2020 - Dec-31-2020, SI went up by 50% going by Nasdaq and other sources too. But ihor has been sharing very inaccurate data.
If his data was reasonably accurate in that Jan-04 tweet, one would've learnt that the S&P inclusion peak was yet to be reached with so many shorts needing to cover.
I wonder if he's sharing bogus data fooling everyone.

@Artful Dodger You share the view that @ihor's data is inaccurate, right?
It's a little more nuanced than that. I think Ihor's sample set includes mostly retail brokers and other subscribers, but specifically excludes abusive naked short sellers (they won't pay for Ihor's data). Those are the large hedge funds with Options Maker Maker priviledges.

So Ihor's data is skewed, but USEFUL! It shows clearly the divergence in the short interest between these two classes of market participants. Subtract Ihor's data from the NASDAQ short interest data and you are left with the Options Market Makers.

Something the SEC should be looking into, if they didn't have their cushy future retirement jobs at steak. Screw the oath, and the public (what they don't know, they can't blame on us).

I blame them. ;)

Cheers!
 
Last edited:
Ah, so internal memos at Tesla are lying to the employees who are building the cars..lol. Hopefully they wouldn't notice their assembly line is shut down.

I'll never understand the amount of self blindness it takes to be this wrong about something for this many years, and yet just keep digging.... I mean what will it take for them to change their tune? It's truly shocking!

EDIT: The comment above is referring to the John Rosevear tweet. Sorry for any confusion.
 
Last edited: