Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Criscmt]

You're correct that selling covered calls will force MMs to sell stock as a delta hedge against their call purchases. I've thought about this effect myself, but I doubt that retail has the firepower to generate that much downward pressure, and the majority of those selling calls are very bullish and sell deep OTM calls that have little delta and therefore require minimal selling in order to hedge. Beyond that, we're just not seeing much in the way of volume, which is the bigger story in my opinion.

On the volume front, I thought volume last couple of days has been significantly higher than average in recent times. WDYT?

 

[Zero CO2]

But, is Ford committed to EV's, though? Because if they were, we wouldn't be having this conversation. He is sidelining the company who is actually changing the world in favor of, well, Ford. What message does it send? Instead of promoting innovation and actual commitment, he's promoting, well, Ford. I think a stand-up leader should call things what they are and send a clear message to the slackers that reads "you better get with the program or else." TSLA has been briskly advancing the cause alone under constant media attacks, with zero helps from his administration. Throw the 80-20 rule out the window. TSLA is the 1% that is doing 99% of the work. If he wants to advance the cause, promote TSLA.

all great points but clearly not the right location as mentioned in other posts .... situational leadership ... Biden should promote all EVs this helps the cause ... would not be a good look for him to be promoting Tesla at a Ford factory ... that would just be bad taste

 

[Zero CO2]

I thought all of this "Is cat" and "Is dog" stuff was a board joke. Now I'm not sure...

View attachment 663575

FLORIDA MAN

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Bearing in mind I saw a total of 6 S' on the ro-ro. And saw hundreds if not ~ a thousand S' waiting off the delivery lot in various places.

Hey I mean at this point, I'm just happy to see that they've produced a thousand S's

The fact that they are starting to be loaded onto trucks is a good sign....even if it's just one truck

 

[dww12]

all great points but clearly not the right location as mentioned in other posts .... situational leadership ... Biden should promote all EVs this helps the cause ... would not be a good look for him to be promoting Tesla at a Ford factory ... that would just be bad taste

Agreed but saying China is leading and that the USA is not making batteries is just false. If he had said Detroit then Ok, but he said USA.

 

[jbcarioca]

You might want to do some due diligence here. Even GM and Ford would be affected by the EV credit only being made by union workers.....The Mach E is built in Mexico.....Also ya know.....the fact that this a federal piece of legislation. They would be discriminating against Tesla if they said only union built...which means it will never hold up in court.

I'm amazed so many are buying into this idea that Tesla is going to get excluded

Everyone hopes you’re correct. However, the political positioning is detracting from Biden’s own environmental positions. That does make advancing the mission more difficult. The eventual legislation suffers by this distraction.

 

[FireMedic]

This dude knows his *sugar* when it comes to fast cars. Not biased by too much exhaust fumes, and VERY bullish about plaid S+

 

[Zero CO2]

Agreed but saying China is leading and that the USA is not making batteries is just false. If he had said Detroit then Ok, but he said USA.

who is the boogey man to many of these union folks ? China... at least according ot some of my conservative friends ... by saying China is beating US might get them moving ....saying Tesla just creates USA in-fighting " the enemy is out there "... sleepy Joe knows what he is doing .... I hope

 

[jkirkwood001]

View attachment 663579

In-your-face pro union and pro car dealerships - how can he not be anti Tesla at heart?....

Elon was originally on Trump's Business Advisory Council until he quit (it eventually disbanded). Does Biden have a similar council? If so, ...?

 

[insaneoctane]

It's hilarious (because there aren't words to convey how sad and disappointing it is) to me how everyone tries to pretend Tesla doesn't exist, like it's some foreign (alien?) manufacturer that slipped in under the radar and now makes cars within our borders. With American workers. With about as impressive an American supply chain as you can get.

The opposite should be true - Tesla should be held up as THE pinnacle of American innovation, entrepreneurship, dedication, and perseverance. But we continue to coddle the laggards - who have all but crippled our future on this planet - without acknowledging the cream that has risen to the top.

This ^ 100%

I'm also fed up of all the acceptance/excusing for people not doing the right thing....

• Tolerance with the idea that new US incentives may not apply to Tesla because Tesla doesn't "need it"? All automotive companies have had the same incentives as Tesla, but they've squandered them while they put out compliance punch-lines and kept pumping out ICE boxes and carbon- business as usual....now we're supposed to be "ok" with Ford/GM getting even more tax subsidies while their EVs play catch up and their profit-enriching ICE polluters continue to roll off the line while benefiting from a subsidized oil industry?
• Tesla's pace of innovation and vertical integration is illustrating how more US companies ought to be run, yet Biden gives a speech about the automotive future and EVs and Tesla (the most American car company BTW) isn't even mentioned?
• Elon-hate, even though he's simply looking out for our planet and species
• Barrage of FUD/MM articles on AP crashes, fires, etc. that totally skew the truth

I just can't look the other way when so many keep doing the "wrong" thing....and so many people seems ok with it.

<steps down from the soapbox>

 

[Cherry Wine]

On the volume front, I thought volume last couple of days has been significantly higher than average in recent times. WDYT?

I haven't paid attention to options volumes, but share volume over the last couple of days has definitely been average relative to recent days, and volume in general the past month has been on the low end of average going back through this past October (see below).

 

[Jack6591]

“I will run over you with my Tesla, and you will never hear it coming.”

Is this the opposite of FUD?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

They're starting to produce a pretty good amount of Giga castings at Austin. I get wanting to dial in the giga press machine in run them early on to work out in any kinks.

However......it sure seems like a lot of casting pretty early on (and it's been growing pretty rapidly over the past few days) to the point where I'm starting to wonder exactly how far away they are from pilot production of the Y there.......

(They could easily stop making them at any point when they've feel that they've got it locked in)

 

[tschmidty]

In pretty much all TSLA groups across various platforms I am part of, retail investors are selling CCs. Most of them never were in options before.
Selling CCs leads to downward pressure on the stock. One can say, these retailers selling CCs won’t have even a marginal effect. Is this very likely the case, that there’s no marginal effect too here?
Another aspect of this I am wondering, is it getting overwhelmingly one sided?
Related, I wish I could see the historical numbers on shorting, including calls sold, across the market, might put this in better perspective.

@Curt Renz @generalenthu @Artful Dodger @StealthP3D @bxr140 @Lycanthrope and others

Do covered calls really exert downward pressure? I sell a few of them every week on TSLA and a couple others since with a stock that is volatile, it is profitable. I do really hate selling them on TSLA since I'd hate to get called and it does feel a little bearish but unfortunately/fortunately I have only had to sell a couple shares in order to buy to close/roll them, and it has allowed me to accumulate a heck of a lot more shares. FWIW, I only sell very short term (ie <10 days) calls and I watch the price movements fairly closely during the week.

Should I sell puts instead? I'd rather have my money invested in TSLA than tied up waiting. Buying puts/calls can be very profitable but is also spending money I could be using accumulating TSLA.

So for someone bullish on the stock, and wanting to accumulate more shares while it is being bounced around by market makers/algos/shorts/whatever it seems like a good way to get more shares without the full roll of the dice other options are.

 

[mongo]

They're starting to produce a pretty good amount of Giga castings at Austin. I get wanting to dial in the giga press machine in run them early on to work out in any kinks.

However......it sure seems like a lot of casting (and it's been growing pretty rapidly over the past few days) to the point where I'm starting to wonder exactly how far away they are from pilot production of the Y there.......

(They could easily stop making them at any point when they've feel that they've got it locked in)

They can reuse the aluminum, so no major downside to lots of test shots. They'll also need a bunch for trialing the post casting machining process. Then a bunch of machined ones for trialing assembly. Then...

 

[EVWatcher]

Do covered calls really exert downward pressure? I sell a few of them every week on TSLA and a couple others since with a stock that is volatile, it is profitable. I do really hate selling them on TSLA since I'd hate to get called and it does feel a little bearish but unfortunately/fortunately I have only had to sell a couple shares in order to buy to close/roll them, and it has allowed me to accumulate a heck of a lot more shares. FWIW, I only sell very short term (ie <10 days) calls and I watch the price movements fairly closely during the week.

Should I sell puts instead? I'd rather have my money invested in TSLA than tied up waiting. Buying puts/calls can be very profitable but is also spending money I could be using accumulating TSLA.

So for someone bullish on the stock, and wanting to accumulate more shares while it is being bounced around by market makers/algos/shorts/whatever it seems like a good way to get more shares without the full roll of the dice other options are.

As I understand if when you sell a call as a retail investor the market makers buy it from you. To hedge their position they sell Tesla and allocate cash to purchase those shares from you under the circumstances that the calls go in the money and they need to purchase shares from you.

I could be mistaken tho.

Whether or not retail traders like yourself have any impact on the stock price by doing this is I think an unknown. Max pain tends to have a pretty substantial effect on Tesla but to know what causes that I think we'd need to know what % of the open interest on calls and puts are written by retail. Which I think is unknownable? I don't really know what im talking about tho so do take this as advice.

 

[22522]

Another thing a casting can do that Tesla does not yet realize. It can mitigate the impact of the drivetrain hump that runs across the back of the car. With careful design there could be wheelchair tracks in the casting that would lat a wheelchair be rolled into the back of the vehicle. With a casting that is free. The drive train would need to support those grooves. It is a drivetrain

 

[deshkart]

Can someone translate this to share price in 2023 ? ... What are implications?

 

[willow_hiller]

As I understand if when you sell a call as a retail investor the market makers buy it from you. To hedge their position they sell Tesla and allocate cash to purchase those shares from you under the circumstances that the calls go in the money and they need to purchase shares from you.

If the market makers are Delta hedging, they'll only sell shares equivalent to the Delta of the option. So if an OTM option has a 0.5 Delta, they'll only sell 50 shares per contract. And it should only have a temporary impact on the SP if the option expires worthless. The market makers will buy them all back at expiry to remain Delta neutral.

 

[MC3OZ]

They're starting to produce a pretty good amount of Giga castings at Austin. I get wanting to dial in the giga press machine in run them early on to work out in any kinks.

However......it sure seems like a lot of casting pretty early on (and it's been growing pretty rapidly over the past few days) to the point where I'm starting to wonder exactly how far away they are from pilot production of the Y there.......

(They could easily stop making them at any point when they've feel that they've got it locked in)

Or they could ship castings from Austin to Fremont on a temporary basis, if that results in higher production at Fremont.

For Model Y production at Austin we know it is using 4680 cells, again a few cells could be shipped from Fremont to spin up trial production.

For volume production they need to make 4680s on site at Austin, they recently completed the shell of the 4680 cell production facility.
I think a minimum of 3 months from here, Tesla subsidiaries make most of the equipment needed for 4680 cell production, but there is a lot of equipment to ship and install.

One advantage I see is on lead times and deliveries, installations can be planned well in advance. there are probably no hold ups on battery production equipment.