Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[S3XY]

Note he's specifically talking about the 2021.4.12.2 -> 2021.4.15.x branch.

Most of the fleet (per teslafi data anyway) is still on 2021.4.X branches- mostly 2021.4.18 right now


Seems to make sense that minority of fleet on the development branch are shadow testing the vision-only stuff that Elon suggested would go wide soon.

My Y is on 4.18 right now but my 3 is on 4.15. Will be interesting to see how they differ.

 

[jbcarioca]

aa

There's a car dealer magazine? Is the circulation of that like 100?

There are millions of people in the US alone who depend on the auto dealer community. From banks, advertising agencies, software providers, myriad specialized equipment vendors, every auto manufacturer other than Tesla and many more. Apart from NADA there are numerous specialized publications. Just n case any of us imagine Tesla can singlehandedly wipe out auto dealers just consider that direct auto dealer us employment is roughly 2,000,000 people now. That number fluctuates but is consistently in that range. The employment in ancillary industry and services totally dependent on auto dealers is about 2,500,000. Ant time there is over four million people totally dependent on a specific thing, that thing will fight to survive. Now consider that the vast majority of those are deeply tied to local politicians.

actually the circulation figures for several of those publications are public. You can just search for them. While doing that consider there are large readerships for publications on the following topics, among many others: auto finance, tire retailing, F&I (separate from Auto Finance, dealer software.

Many of those benefit from Tesla also, and a handful benefit from the Tesla business model, not least because of Tesla rapid growth. Electricians, sign makers, printers, specialized service equipment vendors are all categories that have boomed because of the Tesla blistering growth rate. Still they cannot afford to alienate the much larger traditional customer base.

Then consider that the largest dealer groups themselves are more like Tesla than traditional local auto dealers.

We need not lock far to see how enormous the vested interests are aligned to be impediments to direct distribution.

the time is approaching when Tesla will be forced to modify present policies in order to continue growing. The opportunity to make creative solutions does exist. The question is when? Not If.

 

[madodel]

... just consider that direct auto dealer us employment is roughly 2,000,000 people now. That number fluctuates but is consistently in that range.

So roughly half are responsible for doing pinstriping and door edge guard addons to upcharge $1-2,000 on the dealer price, right?

 

[JustSaying]

Of course they can. Aluminum ingots are stored outside, on pallets, unwrapped, from the moment they leave the aluminum smelter. Then they are loaded on flat-beds, open to the weather and road spray, to be delivered (where they are likely to sit outside with the birds again).

View attachment 664946

With Aluminium having a melting point of 1,221°F (660.32°C), all organic contaminants get vaporized on the way to melting point.
Also most reclamation processes use only small quantities of scrap in new batches.
(Didn't Munroe say that his analysis of the aluminium alloy Tesla using was unknown to him? I am not if that will have any impact on the recycle process)

 

[generalenthu]

My Y is on 4.18 right now but my 3 is on 4.15. Will be interesting to see how they differ.

I am on the 4.15 branch on the 3. Today I saw a manoeuvre I had not seen before on highway. The car was approaching an exit on medium high traffic and had to change lanes. The guy behind didn't yield and the car after blinking for a bit, went slightly over into the right lane and came back. The guy/gal behind immediately yielded.

Not sure if this is new behavior. I had not driven any appreciable amount on NoA since the pandemic.

 

[powertoold]

Didn't Munroe say that his analysis of the aluminium alloy Tesla using was unknown to him? I am not if that will have any impact on the recycle process

Munro says it's an AA386 alloy with some special ingredients:

 

[JustSaying]

About 30%+ of castings in Fremont are stored similarly. They're just stacked on top of each other with no rigs or frames.

View attachment 664967

Even if perfect, as they are rough castings ,the next step is that they will have to be subjected to many cleaning, milling and tapping operations to bring them into assembly tolerances and surface preparation for adhesives.
Protected storage at that point will be critical.
(Just Saying)

 

[22522]

With Aluminium having a melting point of 1,221°F (660.32°C), all organic contaminants get vaporized on the way to melting point.
Also most reclamation processes use only small quantities of scrap in new batches.
(Didn't Munroe say that his analysis of the aluminium alloy Tesla using was unknown to him? I am not if that will have any impact on the recycle process)

This is like regrind in plastics.

If you are just heating up the tool and will not use the castings, could that process be 100% regrind?

 

[S3XY]

Munro says it's an AA386 alloy with some special ingredients:

View attachment 665144

Wow, is SMR one of the secret ingredients?

 

[22522]

aa

There are millions of people in the US alone who depend on the auto dealer community. From banks, advertising agencies, software providers, myriad specialized equipment vendors, every auto manufacturer other than Tesla and many more. Apart from NADA there are numerous specialized publications. Just n case any of us imagine Tesla can singlehandedly wipe out auto dealers just consider that direct auto dealer us employment is roughly 2,000,000 people now. That number fluctuates but is consistently in that range. The employment in ancillary industry and services totally dependent on auto dealers is about 2,500,000. Ant time there is over four million people totally dependent on a specific thing, that thing will fight to survive. Now consider that the vast majority of those are deeply tied to local politicians.

actually the circulation figures for several of those publications are public. You can just search for them. While doing that consider there are large readerships for publications on the following topics, among many others: auto finance, tire retailing, F&I (separate from Auto Finance, dealer software.

Many of those benefit from Tesla also, and a handful benefit from the Tesla business model, not least because of Tesla rapid growth. Electricians, sign makers, printers, specialized service equipment vendors are all categories that have boomed because of the Tesla blistering growth rate. Still they cannot afford to alienate the much larger traditional customer base.

Then consider that the largest dealer groups themselves are more like Tesla than traditional local auto dealers.

We need not lock far to see how enormous the vested interests are aligned to be impediments to direct distribution.

the time is approaching when Tesla will be forced to modify present policies in order to continue growing. The opportunity to make creative solutions does exist. The question is when? Not If.

This local employement is deliberate. Ford could have been all company stores like Tesla, but laws were passed to reduce that concentration of “bully” power. People like to see a fraction of their spend on their community.

Geopolitically Tesla does this by locating factories. But higher granularity by adding a PR function to every gallery/metropolitan area is clearly needed! This PR function might be community relations.

 

[JustSaying]

Wow, is SMR one of the secret ingredients?

Sorry, I am a little slow , but what does "SMR"
stand for?
Thanks

 

[aswami]

aa

There are millions of people in the US alone who depend on the auto dealer community. From banks, advertising agencies, software providers, myriad specialized equipment vendors, every auto manufacturer other than Tesla and many more. Apart from NADA there are numerous specialized publications. Just n case any of us imagine Tesla can singlehandedly wipe out auto dealers just consider that direct auto dealer us employment is roughly 2,000,000 people now. That number fluctuates but is consistently in that range. The employment in ancillary industry and services totally dependent on auto dealers is about 2,500,000. Ant time there is over four million people totally dependent on a specific thing, that thing will fight to survive. Now consider that the vast majority of those are deeply tied to local politicians.

actually the circulation figures for several of those publications are public. You can just search for them. While doing that consider there are large readerships for publications on the following topics, among many others: auto finance, tire retailing, F&I (separate from Auto Finance, dealer software.

Many of those benefit from Tesla also, and a handful benefit from the Tesla business model, not least because of Tesla rapid growth. Electricians, sign makers, printers, specialized service equipment vendors are all categories that have boomed because of the Tesla blistering growth rate. Still they cannot afford to alienate the much larger traditional customer base.

Then consider that the largest dealer groups themselves are more like Tesla than traditional local auto dealers.

We need not lock far to see how enormous the vested interests are aligned to be impediments to direct distribution.

the time is approaching when Tesla will be forced to modify present policies in order to continue growing. The opportunity to make creative solutions does exist. The question is when? Not If.

Past technological innovations have caused similar disruptions to established sectors. The whole changeover to a new technological paradigm happens holistically with minimal harm to actual individuals if the market is allowed to play itself out without overt government intervention.

The top dogs of the old paradigm lose their top dog position, but they seldom lose personal wealth or go personally bankrupt. Similarly, the shareholders also switch over to the new investments. The middle management layer as well as many specialized technicians find gainful employment for the most part or retire modestly. The blue collar layer of workers probably switch over to the new paradigm the easiest. The whole thing is massively helped by the fact that such paradigm shifting technologies often make the whole pie bigger for everyone. So, there are really no starving mobs left to riot.

This seemingly chaotic but efficient change requires that the media, politicians, regulators and the government let it all play out, with the confidence that the coming bigger pie will benefit them as well.

The only question left is - will the people be smart enough or dumb enough to let it play out naturally? Also, can the pace of change be so fast that those who might come in the way don't have time enough to gather their breath to put up any major resistance?

 

[dcvo89]

Sorry, I am a little slow , but what does "SMR"
stand for?
Thanks

Steven mark Ryan from the solving the money problem YouTube channel

 

[JustSaying]

Steven mark Ryan from the solving the money problem YouTube channel

Thanks

 

[dhanson865]

@gabeincal if you happen to be going through Modesto this might be interesting.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1396150010362875908

someone needs to tell them they are called Megachargers not semichargers.

 

[Bet TSLA]

CNN spreading more gratuitous FUD
So I follow this link to CNN: Extreme weather kills 21 ultra-marathon runners in China, reading about yet another weather related tragedy. I see this sidebar headline under "News and Buzz": Elon Musk agrees to pay $20 million and quit as Tesla chairman in deal with SEC. WTF???

 

[StealthP3D]

Past technological innovations have caused similar disruptions to established sectors. The whole changeover to a new technological paradigm happens holistically with minimal harm to actual individuals if the market is allowed to play itself out without overt government intervention.

The top dogs of the old paradigm lose their top dog position, but they seldom lose personal wealth or go personally bankrupt. Similarly, the shareholders also switch over to the new investments. The middle management layer as well as many specialized technicians find gainful employment for the most part or retire modestly. The blue collar layer of workers probably switch over to the new paradigm the easiest. The whole thing is massively helped by the fact that such paradigm shifting technologies often make the whole pie bigger for everyone. So, there are really no starving mobs left to riot.

I agree there are generally no starving mobs to riot from technological disruption (that happens when entire classes of populations are repressed economically). But your examples of individual impacts are not accurate. Sure, if a shareholder sees the disruption happening before everyone else they can sell and buy the next great thing. But someone has to be buying those shares for good money and they will eventually lose (or hand the loss off to another shareholder). When businesses are disrupted, plenty of people lose big time. Similarly, a good portion of the shares tend to be held by the "top dogs" in their industry and they are typically the last people to see the disruption, so, yes, they lose huge amounts of personal wealth. No, I don't feel sorry for them, it's just money.

I always prefer to look at the world realistically, not idealistically. It's true, people get hurt financially during periods of disruption but I don't think that's a bad thing. It is most unfortunate that disruption disrupts actual lives, but that's how we change and progress. I do agree with your point that technological disruption leaves society as a whole economically better off than before.

 

[StealthP3D]

CNN spreading more gratuitous FUD
So I follow this link to CNN: Extreme weather kills 21 ultra-marathon runners in China, reading about yet another weather related tragedy. I see this sidebar headline under "News and Buzz": Elon Musk agrees to pay $20 million and quit as Tesla chairman in deal with SEC. WTF???

I had to refresh the page 5 times for that story from 2018 to show up. I guess you could say CNN doesn't discriminate against news stories based on age?

 

[Tslynk67]

Weekend OT. The Eurovision Song Contest had a taxi karaoke feature. In a Tesla.

Come on, at least this isn't Ford talk.

Yeah, a Model S

 

[mrdoubleb]

Weekend OT. The Eurovision Song Contest had a taxi karaoke feature. In a Tesla.

Come on, at least this isn't Ford talk.

There are guilty pleasures and then there are guilty pleasures. Watching Eurovision is not in the good category.