Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dhanson865]

Customers have no choice. There's no way to specify which factory you get your Model Y from.

I'm going to make a rough suggestion: consider a straight line drawn between El Paso TX and Gary, IN. If you live on the left-hand side of that line (including residents of Chicago) you get your Model Y from Fremont. If you live on the right-hand side of that line, you get your Model Y from Austin. The exact nature of the divide is up to Tesla, who will take numerous factors into consideration and no doubt keep it all a secret.

I'd do it a different way.

I'd make the Y lineup 3 vehicles by adding a new shorter range AWD option

SR+ AWD Model Y
LR AWD Model Y
Performance AWD Model Y

Do SR+ AWD and some LR from Fremont (if the range is the same), do the majority of LR and all the performance from Austin.

You still have some sort of dividing line but if you have any range or quality difference you can push the higher trims out of Texas

If there is no difference between Fremont and Austin you can have both making lower trims. If there is a difference let Fremont make the cheaper trim and make sure the higher trims come off the newer lines.

I'm assuming they are cell limited and will be able to make a 3rd trim once they have more body lines up and running. If Cell production outpaces body production at any point then cut the SR+ again and lower the price on the LR.

 

[dhanson865]

Here's some free advertising:

View attachment 673373

The problem here is Diess forgot to mention that the model 3 had given the VW bug a 2 day head start....

Naw, he's just suggesting Age goes before Beauty.

 

[Wicket]

Comments from Adam Jonas attached. I'd like to request focusing on arguments in this report rather than past grievances with him. My understanding is in practical terms he is influential with institutions. And anyway, he's mostly singing their praises these days it just comes with that extra Adam spice of thinking he knows best what Tesla should do (don't we all). I'm intrigued by the idea of accounting in the valuation for SaaS revenue. I don't even have that in my model right now. Nor do I have Tesla as a tier 1 supplier although it does seem like a valid possibility (how hard would it be to scale up those carbon-wrapped rotors with a -5% modifier of secret sauce? I'd love for them to sell to companies that are still doomed anyway and take their money on the way out the door). Trouble with valuing this company, that might be hurting it in the market, is they have like 10 different amazing things they can do in the future that are so nascent you can't connect any points together to quantify them. I mean some birdie comes back from the future and tells me they are selling 50GWh/year or 1000GWh/year in 2030 for TE and I'll believe it.

Also as bonus I added an amusing picture I wandered into on a TSLAQ account but it's still amusing.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Comments from Adam Jonas attached. I'd like to request focusing on arguments in this report rather than past grievances with him. My understanding is in practical terms he is influential with institutions. And anyway, he's mostly singing their praises these days it just comes with that extra Adam spice of thinking he knows best what Tesla should do (don't we all). I'm intrigued by the idea of accounting in the valuation for SaaS revenue. I don't even have that in my model right now. Nor do I have Tesla as a tier 1 supplier although it does seem like a valid possibility (how hard would it be to scale up those carbon-wrapped rotors with a -5% modifier of secret sauce? I'd love for them to sell to companies that are still doomed anyway and take their money on the way out the door). Trouble with valuing this company, that might be hurting it in the market, is they have like 10 different amazing things they can do in the future that are so nascent you can't connect any points together to quantify them. I mean some birdie comes back from the future and tells me they are selling 50GWh/year or 1000GWh/year in 2030 for TE and I'll believe it.

Also as bonus I added an amusing picture I wandered into on a TSLAQ account but it's still amusing.

Important thing to note there is his EPS expectations......which are about 30-50% too low for 2021, 2022, and 2023.

So lots of upside to his PT based on his own calculations.

 

[elasalle]

Tesla Model Y News and Reviews | InsideEVs

Get the latest on new Tesla Model Y models including first drives, in-depth reviews, concept car photos, new features, recalls and more.

insideevs.com

 

[MartinAustin]

I'd do it a different way.

I'd make the Y lineup 3 vehicles by adding a new shorter range AWD option

SR+ AWD Model Y
LR AWD Model Y
Performance AWD Model Y

Do SR+ AWD and some LR from Fremont (if the range is the same), do the majority of LR and all the performance from Austin.

You still have some sort of dividing line but if you have any range or quality difference you can push the higher trims out of Texas

If there is no difference between Fremont and Austin you can have both making lower trims. If there is a difference let Fremont make the cheaper trim and make sure the higher trims come off the newer lines.

I'm assuming they are cell limited and will be able to make a 3rd trim once they have more body lines up and running. If Cell production outpaces body production at any point then cut the SR+ again and lower the price on the LR.

This two-factory situation only produces two types of vehicles (one with 4680's, one with 2170's) until the Austin factory is FULLY ramped up - at which point Austin Y will be out-producing Fremont Y.

At that point Fremont will do some serious down-tooling and revise their Model Y to use 4680 packs etc. I also hope they revise the Paint Shop to bring it up to the same capability as Austin and Berlin - after which, they can start to offer METALLIC SILVER AGAIN and some other colours that other people might want

During the Fremont down-time, Austin will be supplying all Model Y previously supplied from Fremont+Austin. (including exports out of USA?)

Once Fremont is operational again, they will go back to supplying America using the same bifurcated sourcing as when they started. The Model Y is going to become America's fastest-selling vehicle. They will need two large factories supplying the USA.

One question that remains is what will happen to Model 3 production during the downtime - will it stop as well and everything crosses over to 4680?

 

[Wicket]

Important thing to note there is his EPS expectations......which are about 30-50% too low for 2021, 2022, and 2023.

So lots of upside to his PT based on his own calculations.

Those short term numbers are low I agree but it looks like he is using a sum of parts with even longer term duration than 2023 mostly e.g 358$/share for auto for 5.5m units in 2030 (ok haha -- that's a pretty bad estimate).

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Those short term numbers are low I agree but it looks like he is using a sum of parts with even longer term duration than 2023 mostly e.g 358$/share for auto for 5.5m units in 2030 (ok haha -- that's a pretty bad estimate).

Yup, he essentially thinks that Tesla will only do auto-industry standard gross margin, operating margin, profits, and earnings even though Tesla at a 200k/quarter production rate already bests the auto industry on those terms. Tesla at 5 million annual production rate will reach operational margin/profits similar to Apple. So to sum it up, he's a joke....even though he has a 900 PT.

 

[StealthP3D]

Customers have no choice. There's no way to specify which factory you get your Model Y from.

I'm going to make a rough suggestion: consider a straight line drawn between El Paso TX and Gary, IN. If you live on the left-hand side of that line (including residents of Chicago) you get your Model Y from Fremont. If you live on the right-hand side of that line, you get your Model Y from Austin. The exact nature of the divide is up to Tesla, who will take numerous factors into consideration and no doubt keep it all a secret.

How about Tesla says you can ensure you buy a Tesla built in the factory of your choice if you contribute $1800 to our fund to promote Tesla. Don't worry, this is money you are not paying us for advertising.

 

[Wicket]

Yup, he essentially thinks that Tesla will only do auto-industry standard gross margin, operating margin, profits, and earnings even though Tesla at a 200k/quarter production rate already bests the auto industry on those terms. Tesla at 5 million annual production rate will reach operational margin/profits similar to Apple. So to sum it up, he's a joke....even though he has a 900 PT.

At this point I find it remarkably difficult to figure out just what the PT should be but it's a lot more than 620 which is good enough for me. It's like the sum of 8 exponential revenue curves with unclear margin trajectories. I'm always coming up with 1T$+ revenue numbers which is truly mind boggling when you consider it and I feel like there has to be some moderating penalizer factor one has to add just for the complexity of organizing a company at this scale (and fending off regulators and nationalists/protectionism).

 

[aswami]

Except this was definitely the case with the Model Y rollout. Remember when they allegedly didn't know if they would produce it in Reno or Fremont less than one year from production start? Or the Model Y reveal event, when it was barely showcased. Like this image: (ps, the model Y is the blue one on the right you can barely see).

View attachment 673333

Tesla has great demand and margins but nothing is unlimited. They still have to be careful. It is interesting to watch how they deal with the eventual rollout out of 4680's to most of their lineup.

Yes! The switchover to 4680 will be a case study in itself. Model Y 2.0 from Austin and Berlin have been hyped already for improvements beyond just the batteries. But that's not very common public knowledge. So, the demand for legacy MY from Fremont continues. When it is time to switchover, how will they do that? I don't think they can have a gradual transition period when they sell a mix of legacy MYs out of Fremont and new MYs out of Austin. My guess is that they will stockpile sufficient new MYs out of Austin (may be a month or so of inventory) and not deliver them immediately. At the same time, they will choose a sunset date for Fremont MY production, say Aug 31st. They will deliver all the legacy MYs out of Fremont until they run out of stock some time in September. Once they run out of Fremont stock, they will start delivery Austin MY from say Oct 1st or a little earlier.

Makes sense?

 

[Prunesquallor]

Some Sawyer Merritt “inside” info:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1404564499391262721

Paging @Krugerrand

Also:

Modularized Supercharger design for faster installation

Megapack costs falling

Cybertruck production beginning in November. Four CTs are roaming wild.

 

[gabeincal]

 

[MC3OZ]

One question that remains is what will happen to Model 3 production during the downtime - will it stop as well and everything crosses over to 4680?

My guess is that if they shut Model Y production at Fremont, that may be a short-term opportunity to make more Model 3, that would make sense, if Fremont is the only factory making Model 3 in the US.

I don't see a strong argument for migrating Model 3 to 4680 at this time.

How I would do that is make a new version of Model 3 and/or Model 2 at Austin and Berlin with 4680 and castings, then shut Fremont and migrate to the new version. Maybe Berlin and Austin will just make Model 2, and Model 3 will remain unchanged for a while.

 

[pz1975]

Yep. I'm using the Zillow form to contact seller.
View attachment 673386

Funniest post I have ever read on here - well done!

 

[Prunesquallor]

OK, guys, gals, dogs and cats:

First day in a long time my entire portfolio is green.

 

[RubberToe]

Fortune 500 issue just came out today:

Fortune 500 list of companies 2021

The name is synonymous with business success. This is the 67th edition of our ranking of America’s largest companies. Together, the 500 corporations on this year’s list generated $13.8 trillion in revenue, or some two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Explore the list to see who prospered, who...

fortune.com

Not showing on the website, but per the Magazine table under: Total Return to Investors 2010-2020 annual rate rank, Tesla is #1 of all companies with a 63.0% annual return. With a 743.4% return for 2020, which is also #1.

Now the 100th largest company by revenue, up from 124th last year. This years estimated $49B in revenue gets us to #63, and 2022 revenue of $65B gets us to the top 50. Still a ways to go.

No U.S. company has produced a better return to investors over the last 10 years than Tesla.

To all my fellow TMC members who held on through the endless BS spewed by the doubters over the last DECADE, Congratulations! Hopefully you had the instinct and vision to have Tesla as your largest single holding.

To the doubters, naysayers, and short sellers, keep doubting, naysaying and shorting. You missed the stock of the century. Oh well

The mission continues...

Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy.​

Tesla was founded in 2003 by a group of engineers who wanted to prove that people didn’t need to compromise to drive electric – that electric vehicles can be better, quicker and more fun to drive than gasoline cars. Today, Tesla builds not only all-electric vehicles but also infinitely scalable clean energy generation and storage products. Tesla believes the faster the world stops relying on fossil fuels and moves towards a zero-emission future, the better.

 

[MartinAustin]

Some Sawyer Merritt “inside” info:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1404564499391262721

Paging @Krugerrand

Also:

Modularized Supercharger design for faster installation

Megapack costs falling

Cybertruck production beginning in November. Four CTs are roaming wild.

Me discussing an Austin Y production start in October with Sawyer Merritt...

 

[Krugerrand]

Some Sawyer Merritt “inside” info:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1404564499391262721

Paging @Krugerrand

Also:

Modularized Supercharger design for faster installation

Megapack costs falling

Cybertruck production beginning in November. Four CTs are roaming wild.

Uh, huh. #teamaustin

I think he’s talking out his ear, though, about CT start of production. No way a month after starting Model Y will they be ready to start CT. That’s like putting a rack of ribs on a dainty dessert plate.

 

[Mengy]

Some Sawyer Merritt “inside” info:

Four CTs are roaming wild.

That would be interesting if four Cybertrucks were really roaming around the country test driving. I'm not sure I believe him on that, I mean wouldn't we have pics of public sightings if this were true?