Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Stretch2727]

This quote from Elon in the 2020 Q4 earnings call in February states the new Model S has 18650's. Although they are not commenting on it now he was pretty clear before they were 18650. Until I saw this I thought they may actually be 4680.

Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2020 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

TSLA earnings call for the period ending December 31, 2020.

www.fool.com

Alex Potter -- Piper Sandler -- Analyst

Great. Thanks. I was wondering, you mentioned how you'd like to increase your purchases of cells from suppliers. Does this require them to also have the capability to build structural 4680 cells of the sort that you're putting in these newer iterations of vehicles?

Elon Musk -- Founder and Chief Executive Officer

No, it does not. Although, we are talking with them about making the 4680 form factor, but they -- it is not required. For example, the new S currently uses the 18650 form factor. So they're just a more advanced cell, and we think we'll continue to use that form factor for at least a few years.But we will, over time, be retiring the form factors and try to move to a consistent form factor.

 

[ZeApelido]

Yep. I'm using the Zillow form to contact seller.
View attachment 673386

I actually sent this:

 

[Wicket]

This is what we are dealing with. Sell side analysts so transparently rationalize moving their PTs closer to whatever the current market price is that it's embarrassing.

Analysts at Canaccord Genuity on Monday cut their price target on Tesla Inc. (TSLA) shares to $812, from $974, on disappointment that the electric-car maker has nixed the Model S Plaid Plus (Tesla cancels Plaid Plus; ‘No need’ after upgrade to regular Plaid, Elon Musk tweets), which would be the sedan's top trim. Tesla last week launched top-of-the-line Model S Plaid (Tesla stock holds to weekly advance after 'Plaid' Model S) in an effort to breathe new life into the sales of the sedan, which has not changed much in its nearly 10-year existence. The "Plaid Plus" trim "was reportedly going to be the first to feature the new 4680 (battery) cell design. This signals to us the new cell format isn't ready for production just yet, and cell production capacity constraints for energy storage products like Powerwall remain," the Canaccord analysts said. "Coupling this with macro near-term uncertainty surrounding inflation and Fed policy causing a sector rotation out of growth and into value names, leads us to our PT reduction." The $812 target implies a 31% upside to Monday's stock price. Tesla shares have lost 12% this year, contrasting with gains around 13% for the S&P 500 index.

 

[dhanson865]

This two-factory situation only produces two types of vehicles (one with 4680's, one with 2170's) until the Austin factory is FULLY ramped up - at which point Austin Y will be out-producing Fremont Y.

That's a very low detail view.

Right now the 2170 lineup includes Y LR and Y Performance

In the future the 4680 lineup can include Y SR+, Y LR, and Y Performance

In the future the 2170 line up could add Y SR+ and could remove Y LR and/or Y Performance.

That leaves plenty of options on how to play produciton and logistics other than just lumping them all into 2170 vs 4680.

 

[Prunesquallor]

.
… That’s like putting a rack of ribs on a dainty dessert plate.

?????? You’re saying that like it’s a bad thing.

 

[Singuy]

Fortune 500 issue just came out today:

Fortune 500 list of companies 2021

The name is synonymous with business success. This is the 67th edition of our ranking of America’s largest companies. Together, the 500 corporations on this year’s list generated $13.8 trillion in revenue, or some two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Explore the list to see who prospered, who...

fortune.com

Not showing on the website, but per the Magazine table under: Total Return to Investors 2010-2020 annual rate rank, Tesla is #1 of all companies with a 63.0% annual return. With a 743.4% return for 2020, which is also #1.

Now the 100th largest company by revenue, up from 124th last year. This years estimated $49B in revenue gets us to #63, and 2022 revenue of $65B gets us to the top 50. Still a ways to go.

No U.S. company has produced a better return to investors over the last 10 years than Tesla.

To all my fellow TMC members who held on through the endless BS spewed by the doubters over the last DECADE, Congratulations! Hopefully you had the instinct and vision to have Tesla as your largest single holding.

To the doubters, naysayers, and short sellers, keep doubting, naysaying and shorting. You missed the stock of the century. Oh well

The mission continues...

Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy.​

Tesla was founded in 2003 by a group of engineers who wanted to prove that people didn’t need to compromise to drive electric – that electric vehicles can be better, quicker and more fun to drive than gasoline cars. Today, Tesla builds not only all-electric vehicles but also infinitely scalable clean energy generation and storage products. Tesla believes the faster the world stops relying on fossil fuels and moves towards a zero-emission future, the better.

Shorts wished they just missed out. My friend missed out on Tsla. They are not under a bridge unlike the shorts.

 

[Singuy]

I am beginning to wonder if Musk, having so many of his employees approached by Lucid and didn't sign due to a lack of funding, is convinced that they couldn't get the car out therefore he canceled the Plaid+...hmmmmmmm

 

[InDaClub]

I actually sent this:

View attachment 673423

Shame on you Joseph. I have cancelled your Father's Day gift.

 

[SN_8]

I actually sent this:

View attachment 673423

Zillow also included the property owner's phone number, but I told myself not to bother him while he is solving the world's problems tweeting with Miley Cyrus.

 

[Jack6591]

I’m retired, living in San Diego, and looking to cure my pandemic-cabin-fever. Since it’s just down the road, I’m going to check out Aptera.

The interior looks vaguely familiar…

 

[Krugerrand]

?????? You’re saying that like it’s a bad thing.

Yes. Too much on the plate. You’re not making it from the buffet to your table without dropping ribs all over the floor.

 

[juanmedina]

Free Tesla advertising from Michelin. I need those tires ASAP. Hopefully they are available in Q3 because I need them right away.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Free Tesla advertising from Michelin. I need those tires ASAP. Hopefully they are available in Q3 because I need them right away.

Take my money right now.
taking delivery of my Model Y Thursday. I’ll try to reserve the same treatment as the stock set tires of my Model 3. 10,000 miles and they were done. So I can try those nice tires

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Too much good info in this to summarize, but it looks like lots of battery sales in the future.
Storage providers face bankability challenge as customers prefer Tesla, other tier 1 battery suppliers

The supply shortage isn't about materials, but more about bankability, the willingness of investors and financial backers to take risks on battery manufacturers who aren't household names. A smaller pool of trusted manufacturers means fewer opportunities for big-money storage projects to secure the necessary volume of batteries and leaves the energy storage industry at odds with electric vehicle builders for a limited supply of batteries. A concentration in China also means the market is vulnerable to international affairs.

It's a challenge being compounded by rapidly rising demand. A June 2021 forecast from Wood Mackenzie estimates that the U.S. energy storage market will grow to 33 GWh a year by 2026 and be worth $8.5 billion. Zero-carbon electricity goals in the U.S. and worldwide have spurred more pressing needs for storage installations, which can handle the intermittency of renewable energy production.

 

[madodel]

I’m retired, living in San Diego, and looking to cure my pandemic-cabin-fever. Since it’s just down the road, I’m going to check out Aptera.

The interior looks vaguely familiar…

Yes, but you won't find orange in a Tesla.

 

[Wicket]

I spend too much time thinking about Tesla. My first thought seeing the Michelin commerical was that Elon would probably bring tire fabrication in house eventually and then attempt to innovate on the outdated concept of 'circles'.

edit: Come to think of it there might be something possible with changing the inflation psi rapidly at launch.

 

[Xepa777]

Uh, huh. #teamaustin

I think he’s talking out his ear, though, about CT start of production. No way a month after starting Model Y will they be ready to start CT. That’s like putting a rack of ribs on a dainty dessert plate.

Why do people keep quoting Sawyer? He's such a fraud. He gave like 20 predictions for the Plaid S event and literally like all of them were wrong.

 

[goinfraftw]

Why do people keep quoting Sawyer? He's such a fraud. He gave like 20 predictions for the Plaid S event and literally like all of them were wrong.

Twitter is an information social network whose inherent unit value is based on quickness and verifiability of the info shared on it.

Suffice it to say, if he keeps doing that - then his Twitter followers will turn on him and, the thing he's relied on, won't be as positively valuable to his life...

I don't think he's a fraud, it's just really hard these days to get consistently reliable sources outside of those that work at Tesla.

 

[DragonWatch]

Forward Observer

First, if you are a short term trader ~ ignore me.

Second, Dragons View requires most of my undivided attention as it is new to us. Dragons Den, just needs a nod that all is well.

Now, probably most long term retail investors, like me, know already, active radar can be fooled. I was brought up in the military that sought ways to avoid being painted by radar; while painting with radar. I also remember cowboys claiming that their dirty car would stand less of a chance of being tagged by police radar while speeding. Then, there is my Tesla camera reaction in the Pacific Northwest ~ on heavy rainy days, it has trouble functioning. Do you really think radar would be any better? Think about yourself, mr/miss human radar in very heavy rain ~ are you perfect? Stealth technology is nature at its best.

The yoke steering wheel; wheel is no longer relevant; since it is not round It is a transitional piece between one hundred year old technology and advanced technology called driverless. Think about needing to avoid a nut job fossil fuel car driver. You might just want to take control of the situation. How long will it take to wash out of a system called fossil fuel industry and rinse in the new electric. Ten, twenty, thirty years? That new Ford 150 touted to crush Tesla, does it have driverless capability. Is Ford installing radar or cameras such that for an added $10K it becomes driverless? I am about to have my Tacoma serviced yet again, every 5K miles ~ like it or not. My two year old Model X has not had a service yet. Will Ford require its 150 to be serviced? Yes, Tesla did initially once a year. I bet on the stock with the first X instead of purchasing the service plan.

Think about the Ford 150, is there a driverless option because the cameras and or radar are installed and a database is being collected? If no driverless system is gamed into the production model, how is it any better than the fossil fuel version of a Ford 150. How long will it take to wash out before there is a driverless version of Ford 150?

My wife will not allow me to buy a cybertruck ~ too long. Now, if it was the size of our Tacoma, i would be right there. It has taken ten years to get where Tesla is today. They will make a smaller truck for me even if I am height challenged. Good things come to “me“ who wait.

If you are a zero-sum-gain kind of thinker, bet on Ford or Chevy. If you are like me, ask Toyota how they got to be where they are vs Ford and Chevy today. Back in the late sixties and early seventies both Ford and Chevy talked dog poo about Toyota ~ I was not into stocks back then:-(

I wanted to add ~ some were talking about mergers. If Tesla is selling upwards of 185k (round number) per quarter. Which automakers are losing those sales. That will tell you who will merge and who will fold. Start looking at who is buying Tesla used cars and which brands are needing more car washes on the typical used car lots. I recently saw fields of new vehicles looking for homes or “homeless.” Are they homeless due to missing chips, or no one wats the mutts?

I am very excited to be where I/we are today ~ since I am no one, it is hard to truly tell.

Dragons View is about to lose all its ivy, and be configured to a 320 amp system so I can charge two Tesla’s simultaneously. Two years before our third iteration of solar panels ~ I hope solar roof.

There is more, but you are bored and Sadie our dog needs feeding

 

[wtlloyd]

For sale by owner as well.

I guess Elon does not want to pay out a few million to a real estate agent.

Those are the worst photos for a listing I have ever seen on anything for over $1 million. Notice he is listing it for $2.5 million more than he had it at a year ago, before he removed the listing in November. ALSO notice he paid $14 million less than now asking, just 4 years ago - AND that when he bought it, he paid $6.5 million BELOW asking price!
Dude just can't help making money.