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Not sure if you all follow Dr. know it all… But he’s a pretty sharp cookie. Multiple PhD‘s. Including physics and mathematics.

According to the math that he lays out in this video; FSD will be solved within the year. Couldn’t time stamp it; but if you start at 8:00 min mark you’ll get the nuts and bolts of it.

So…, two weeks is coming up quick!


This timeline is garbage.

Why? We don't even know if Tesla will have all or most of their FSD components based on "software 2.0" i.e. neural net modules. Right now, a lot of it is still "hard-coded" like control policy.

There is no exponential improvement in your control policy wrt. to more data if it's hard coded. Humans are too slow.

IF Tesla implements neural net architectures for all modules of FSD and IF those architectures end up being the right ones and IF they learn how to train them properly, then yes Tesla will have a system to repeatedly and rapidly (well, relatively) improve it's performance.

However, I doubt that will happen exponentially. Even as data available increases exponentially, continual improvements in the model mean the amount of instances that the driver disengages (disagreement with model) will go down, so maybe the flow of unique data may be linear. With a linear flow of data, eventually the model will asymptote and it will take a lot of time / additional data to eek out improvements.

So basically if they get the right architecture, I expect Yet Another S-Curve. But we are probably will start near the steepest part with V9 release. Improvements initially over first 3-6 months will be massive. Then we reach the flattening and improvements will still comb but take longer.
 
Priced in. We have been talking about inflation for 3 months.

Only priced in to an extent, in my opinion. I think we've found equilibrium within this game of the Fed offering reassurance on the one hand, while the data indicates something else.

I think if the Fed were to adopt a much more hawkish tone with regard to inflation, for instance, I think the markets would sell off. Otherwise, despite the Fed's attempts at reassurance, I don't think investors/traders will be mollified until they see evidence of lower inflation within the data. So while I don't expect rallies off of Fed speeches / minutes, I do think the possibility of selloffs still exist should the dot plot / inflation estimates indicate that rate hikes (and/or more of them) are coming sooner than later.
 
Never happen. The moment a bean counter (no matter how good) is made CEO of Tesla is the moment I'm completely out. Idiocy. It would mean Elon is dead or has lost his mind.
pretty sure Zack is Mechanical Engineer/Applied Mechanics first ...
 
Just noticed. A whole slew of Superchargers planned/under construction near Austin. 😄

View attachment 673997
Nice. This is the Bay Area supercharger map:
Screen Shot 2021-06-16 at 11.39.00 AM.png


This is what Austin's supercharger map should look like in a decade.
 
Never happen. The moment a bean counter (no matter how good) is made CEO of Tesla is the moment I'm completely out. Idiocy. It would mean Elon is dead or has lost his mind.
I agree. What makes Tesla unique in their respective industries is that the big decisions are presented and lobbied by the creators. The designers, engineers, production specialists, etc. And the physics and engineer CEO pulls the trigger. When bean counters have veto power over product development, you get GM ignition switch malfunctions and battery fires and glitchy touchscreens. No offense to accountants but sometimes the person that designed the product understands its intrinsic value more than the bottom line. This is coming from somebody that spent a 45 year career designing homes, not in accounting, so it's just my read.
There is a vision to developing and understanding things like the carbon wrapped motor that goes well beyond how it affects this quarters earnings report.
 
We need to create a new term, something to describe the progress of an auto manufacturer transitioning to EV that has surpassed the execution point of Tesla Motors just before Elon Musk took over.

Essentially proven technology design and very limited and un-scaled production. I feel like entities like Ford are just now reaching that point.....and it should have a name.

VW and the likes of Porsche have somewhat passed this point, but I want to know what to celebrate once Ford actually produces a few dozen F-150 EVs.
 
That sounds close to nationalization. I hope Tesla charges a pretty penny.
Remember Tesla's mission. Elon has said over and over that Tesla isn't out to kill off other EVs. To fulfill the mission, Tesla needs other automakers to make EVs too. Screwing over other EVs isn't the goal.

And remember the true goal of the supercharger network. The supercharger network is not meant as a competitive advantage against other EVs. The point of the supercharger network is to mitigate EVs' one disadvantage against ICE. Elon made this clear at the very first supercharging demo back in 2012.

I'll say it again: supercharging is meant to compete against gas cars, not other EVs!

Elon has never said the supercharger network will be proprietary forever.
 
We need to create a new term, something to describe the progress of an auto manufacturer transitioning to EV that has surpassed the execution point of Tesla Motors just before Elon Musk took over.

Essentially proven technology design and very limited and un-scaled production. I feel like entities like Ford are just now reaching that point.....and it should have a name.

VW and the likes of Porsche have somewhat passed this point, but I want to know what to celebrate once Ford actually produces a few dozen F-150 EVs.

“Proof of concept”
 
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I agree. What makes Tesla unique in their respective industries is that the big decisions are presented and lobbied by the creators. The designers, engineers, production specialists, etc. And the physics and engineer CEO pulls the trigger. When bean counters have veto power over product development, you get GM ignition switch malfunctions and battery fires and glitchy touchscreens. No offense to accountants but sometimes the person that designed the product understands its intrinsic value more than the bottom line. This is coming from somebody that spent a 45 year career designing homes, not in accounting, so it's just my read.
There is a vision to developing and understanding things like the carbon wrapped motor that goes well beyond how it affects this quarters earnings report.
Wikipedia: Zach Kirkhorn

Excerpt:

From 2002 to 2006, Kirkhorn studied both Economics at The Wharton School and Mechanical Engineering and Applied Mechanics at the University of Pennsylvania as part of the Jerome Fisher Program in Management and Technology. In 2013, he received an MBA from Harvard Business School.
 
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Only priced in to an extent, in my opinion. I think we've found equilibrium within this game of the Fed offering reassurance on the one hand, while the data indicates something else.

I think if the Fed were to adopt a much more hawkish tone with regard to inflation, for instance, I think the markets would sell off. Otherwise, despite the Fed's attempts at reassurance, I don't think investors/traders will be mollified until they see evidence of lower inflation within the data. So while I don't expect rallies off of Fed speeches / minutes, I do think the possibility of selloffs still exist should the dot plot / inflation estimates indicate that rate hikes (and/or more of them) are coming sooner than later.
Reminds me of the pandemic drop. Stock took the fasted tumble in history before anyone even announced shut downs. Shut down came..and the stock just hovered, then recovered like a V.

Fed finally announced something, crash is like meh compared to earlier in Feb. Probably goes up from here.
 
Nice. This is the Bay Area supercharger map:
View attachment 674038

This is what Austin's supercharger map should look like in a decade.
Great! So in 10 years you'll be able to charge your Tesla almost anywhere in Austin, but you won't be able to buy one there... that's some smart thinking Tejas...
 
No. Passing some Mech E classes doesn't make you an engineer. He's a bean counter by trade. Putting a bean counter in charge of a tech company is fatal.
Whoa there. Let's take a step back and understand why exactly engineers make good businesspeople in the tech sector and why pure finance people don't.

The reason is NOT because counting beans is bad. Counting beans is a fundamental part of business. A business is gonna go nowhere if you can't count beans. Engineers make good CEOs partly because engineers are pretty good at counting beans. You don't think Elon Musk counts beans? Take a look at his "game of pennies" email.

Why don't pure finance people make good tech CEOs? The CEO needs to understand the process of creating technology. They don't actually need to understand the technology itself. You don't want a CEO designing parts at a CAD workstation. You damn sure don't want a CEO at a code review! But they need to understand how it is done. They need to understand when an engineering manager is telling you straight and when they're feeding you CYA BS. Pure finance people don't have that.

Bean counter with an engineering background? That's almost an ideal background for a big tech CEO, especially in a hardware field. Look at Apple.
 
Reminds me of the pandemic drop. Stock took the fasted tumble in history before anyone even announced shut downs. Shut down came..and the stock just hovered, then recovered like a V.

Fed finally announced something, crash is like meh compared to earlier in Feb. Probably goes up from here.
Chances of $TSLA going up = >0% ... longer the base though.....we can wait patiently :)