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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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TSLA has been hovering close to its 200-day SMA (simple moving average) for over a month. TSLA closed slightly below that SMA on Tuesday and Wednesday, then closed above today. That SMA now stands at $612.48 and continues in a rising mode. From a technical perspective, I’d like to see TSLA kick more smartly above that SMA and attack its 50-day SMA, which today is at $647.77 and declining. It would be best for longs, if TSLA does this before those two SMAs cross each other.
 
Shocker for today.

Honda discontinues hydrogen-fuelled Clarity FCV due to slow sales


Edit: sigh…🤮

BMW Latest Maker to Accelerate Hydrogen Fuel Cell Development

 
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Where do they get all this extra $$??

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Okay, I'm working this math on my fingers ...

Let's see, um, 12 Billion on 4 factories ... that's like money enough for 10 or 12 Gigafactories, isn't it? 🤔
 
Unless Cruise and GM are completely delusional,I no longer believe Tesla Robotaxi will be as lucrative.

The Origin would definitely be a preferable ride to a Model 3. Much easier entry/exit, tons of legroom, sitting up high…. In fact if they converted the interior to 4 separate compartments with nice touchscreen, workstation, recliner…, it would make a great commuter vehicle.

The stunning part is their claim of half the cost of a current EV SUV, when they hit scale. Maybe $35k? With 1M mile life that’s less than $0.05 / passenger mile! That does not leave a lot of room, for Tesla to beat them.

If they have enough miles, then even the cost of mapping and map maintenance may amortize down to a low cost per mile.

I guess removing airbags, wheel, pedals… saves enough money to pay for the 40 sensors?

Tesla needs a dedicated purpose built Robotaxi. I am sure Tesla can win on efficiency eking out another few cents / mile advantage.

On the good side from a Tesla investor perspective, they’re only claiming a few thousand San Francisco miles between accidents (or human interventions where it might have wrecked?), so they have a long way to go to get to the safety needed. We really don’t know how close Tesla is at this point.

Also they’re projecting a price only $5k annually below Uber in San Fran.

Main questions:
1. Is GM delusional at hitting a cost of $35k, and how long to hit scale?
2. How long for them to hit safety/nuisance intervention targets compared to Tesla?
3. Will Tesla provide a very nice pure Robotaxi soon. Of course I do not believe scale would be the problem for Tesla.
4. Maybe it’s OK to have competition, as if they hit cheap enough, there will be a very large demand.
5. Does their price assume you have to share the vehicle. In which case, it’s a pretty high price.

Um, I’ll go with "Is GM completely delusional?" ;) for $1000.
 
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...lap after lap after lap after lap. Once I hear this, I'll most likely mash the order button. I really wanted the extra range for full track days, but maybe if get more superchargers this becomes less of an issue.
That will come sooner or later. I asked the new road course near me about that and they said they were already looking into it. Fingers crossed because it looks like an awesome track.
 
Shocker for today.

Honda discontinues hydrogen-fuelled Clarity FCV due to slow sales


Edit: sigh…🤮

BMW Latest Maker to Accelerate Hydrogen Fuel Cell Development

Here's an interesting analysis of Toyota's struggles to develop a hydrogen combustion engine - a massive waste of effort and energy to basically confirm that it's an evolutionary dead end. A quote from the video sums it up: "Turning usable electricity into hydrogen is unlikely to make sense from a global energy or green house gas point of view".
 
Again, Elon already told us during one of the many conference calls since Bty Day that Kato Rd would support Giga Berlin at first. .....

Cheers!
So, the world is battery constrained and the 4680 batteries from Kato are the most advanced high tech battery ever made and we are going to ship them across the ocean. I have 2 (hypothetical) questions.
  1. How much is the ship insured for in case something happens to it? $2 Billion? $20 Billion? $200 Billion?
  2. Will it have an armed escort since the cargo is so valuable?
This sounds like the making of some Tom Clancy covert operation movie. 😂
 
Here's an interesting analysis of Toyota's struggles to develop a hydrogen combustion engine - a massive waste of effort and energy to basically confirm that it's an evolutionary dead end. A quote from the video sums it up: "Turning usable electricity into hydrogen is unlikely to make sense from a global energy or green house gas point of view".

A friend of a friend.... says that mixing in hydrogen is the current idea. I'm not sure they believe in it, but it's a wage for them
 
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Reactions: capster
So, the world is battery constrained and the 4680 batteries from Kato are the most advanced high tech battery ever made and we are going to ship them across the ocean. I have 2 (hypothetical) questions.
  1. How much is the ship insured for in case something happens to it? $2 Billion? $20 Billion? $200 Billion?
  2. Will it have an armed escort since the cargo is so valuable?
This sounds like the making of some Tom Clancy covert operation movie. 😂

With all the Hydrogen no longer being needed for cars, now that Honda and Toyota have come to their senses, maybe a fleet of Tesla zeppelins could be purpose-built for carrying 4680s to GigaBerlin? ;)
 
With all the Hydrogen no longer being needed for cars, now that Honda and Toyota have come to their senses, maybe a fleet of Tesla zeppelins could be purpose-built for carrying 4680s to GigaBerlin? ;)

1623970435493.png
 
No, not correct. The 4680 can help the structure of a pack when built in some configurations. If that is not possible with LFP, the pack just needs more structure, negating the weight benefit of a structural pack, but not needing different chassis etc.
I think we will eventually see 4680 LFP cells, either made by Tesla or a supplier.
 

I'm not sure they read their own article before making that headline.

In the article:
In a meeting with company executives and labour representatives, board chairman Markus Duesmann said Audi would stop introducing fossil fuel burning cars by 2026.

...nothing about stopping building fossil cars.

Only that they would stop introducing them. As in launching new models.

My interpretation is that they can still build fossil car models introduced in 2025 several years later.

Trying to read the German source I come to the same conclusion. Audi will stop launcing new fossil fuel models by 2026. And a few years later they will only launch EVs.

Perhaps @avoigt is a better interpreter of German language than I am and could clarify?

Source: https://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/audi-verbrenner-elektromobilitaet-1.5325505?reduced=true
 
TSLA has been hovering close to its 200-day SMA (simple moving average) for over a month. TSLA closed slightly below that SMA on Tuesday and Wednesday, then closed above today. That SMA now stands at $612.48 and continues in a rising mode. From a technical perspective, I’d like to see TSLA kick more smartly above that SMA and attack its 50-day SMA, which today is at $647.77 and declining. It would be best for longs, if TSLA does this before those two SMAs cross each other.
50-d SMA crossing below 200-d SMA looks inevitable: at today's close, it takes 12, 13, or 15 trading days for that to happen if SP closes $600, $620, or $650 for each consecutive days, respectively. In fact, it needs SP to be ~$700 for the next 25 days for 50-d SMA to turn around and stay above 200-d SMA.

But don't sweet it: $NFLX had a similar peak on late January (20th vs $TSLA 25th) and it crossed on Jan. Jun. 03 and has trading around the same level since then.
1623972379907.png


More likely than not $TSLA would range-bound for the next 2 or 3 quarters ($500-$800, and narrower $600-700), maybe until Giga Texas and Giga Berlin ramping up and the market realizes a 2 million annual production is actually very real and that close. Of course, when FSD realizes, then nothing can hold it from a new ATH, probably to $2,000/$2 trillion market cap, with the largest cap within arm's reach.

Back to short term: when it happens (12th day would be July 6th, 15th be July 9th), the market is probably able to manage a 5%/$30 drop, and then the range-bounding continues, all way through Q2 earnings etc., etc.
 
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