Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Knightshade]

With all the Hydrogen no longer being needed for cars, now that Honda and Toyota have come to their senses, maybe a fleet of Tesla zeppelins could be purpose-built for carrying 4680s to GigaBerlin?

Honda may have come to their senses... Toyota still thinks Hydrogen cars will be relevant through at least 2050.

They're not even relevant NOW, and the gap will only get worse over time... if you were betting on the Nokia of this transition you could do a lot worse than betting on Toyota.

Toyota delusionally claims hybrids and fuel cells will stay competitive with electric cars for next 30 years

Toyota is sticking to its delusional belief that battery-electric vehicles aren’t necessarily the future as they claim hybrids and fuel...

electrek.co

 

[ZeApelido]

Tesla cut the battery size of the Model S from 104 to 100 kWh

Tesla has reduced the energy capacity of the battery pack in the new Model S

Tesla has confirmed that it has reduced the energy capacity of the new battery pack in the new Model S....

electrek.co

 

[BornToFly]

Audi will halt new gas and diesel cars by 2026

While some still doubt the electric revolution has begun, Audi has set a date to stop manufacturing gas and diesel cars.

driveteslacanada.ca

So 2026 is their ""Go out of business date?"

 

[kbM3]

Thanks for the video. It increased my confidence that Tesla will dominate robotaxis.

I'm sorry, but Tesla's engineers are just smarter. Cruise bragged about their camera on a motorized swivel, because an owl sees that way! My God, if you're gonna imitate an animal, pick a housefly. Its compound eyes are very tough to sneak up on.

Cameras are dirt cheap. The only reason to use only a few on swivels, rather than many pointing different directions, is because you don't have the computing power to process many camera views at once. That means Tesla is ahead in the second-most important prerequisite for self-driving. The most important prerequisite, of course, is driving data. Cruise bragged about having a million miles of data, while Tesla has billions.

Even little things like the doors indicate shallow thinking. Cruise bragged about sliding doors because passing cyclists won't hit them. Right, cyclists will hit you stepping out the door.

I agree that $35k per vehicle is only possible with massive scale. But who will have that scale long before Cruise can build millions of owl-sensored minibuses and expand their high-definition maps worldwide? Tesla has a million vehicles now, and a general driving solution on the way. It only needs a software update, which FSD Beta progress suggests is coming soon.

In short, if Cruise can do it, then Tesla can do it cheaper, faster and sooner, I believe.

I agree Tesla will do it better and cheaper, but I was over-optimistic before.

Before, I thought Cruise would have a $90k vehicle. Before I thought Cruise would have a 250k mile life. Before I thought map creation and map maintenance would be large cost factors.

so my thinking has evolved from Tesla having a $0.50 / mile cost advantage to maybe only a $0.20 / mile advantage. Still huge. Just not as great as I thought before.

This may be something everyone already knew, but it was a new revelation for me.

To be clear, I doubt Cruise/GM’s ability to deliver, but if they do, it reduces Tesla’s advantage from what I personally thought it would be.

 

[NSX1992]

Ya, I'm not pretending it makes sense. It's a weird psychological thing to want to hold onto. Now that it seems like it'll be possible to get the price before the $10k increase it's something to consider. I also had FSD locked in at $8k but also curious on how the subscription will be priced. Anyway the spec I want (white/white/carbon fiber) isn't available until August so have some time to mull it over.

When I went to the showroom last Monday they were willing to give me the $2,000 credit for FSD but not the $10,000 on my old Plaid+ order.

 

[SunCatcher]

 

[StealthP3D]

That will come sooner or later. I asked the new road course near me about that and they said they were already looking into it. Fingers crossed because it looks like an awesome track.

I can translate that for you: "Already looking into adding Superchargers at our racetrack" means, "We are not open to getting our asses whooped by Yuppies with Tesla's but we are 'looking into it' wink, wink, nod, nod, so there is no reason for you to spend any more time worrying about this."

You can count on there being a body of respected middle-aged and older performance car enthusiasts that don't want things to change. They believe the end justifies the means and are not stupid so they might not be openly against Superchargers being installed but will work quietly behind the scenes with like-minded individuals to ensure it won't happen, all the while maintaining an outward appearance of working to make it happen.

Without actual EV enthusiasts getting directly involved and making the case to others to create a majority consensus amongst club members that EV's are a good thing for the sport (and for the club), it's not going to happen. You will hear plenty of vague affirmations of how "it's already being worked on".

 

[SarahsDad]

Very interesting. As a dejected early Plaid reservation holder (which evolved into the Plaid +), I was ready to hold out for a real Plaid +, even if that meant waiting until 2023. But with the $10K “discount”, I’m ready to pull the trigger on a Plaid now. Smart decision by Elon to pull sales forward.

And just like that, my reservation has now changed from Plaid + to regular Plaid, with a $10K discount ($135,990 instead of $145,990 for black Plaid, FSD, and 21"wheels), now asking for registration, payment method etc (that is new as of today). So it looks like I get the $10K discount, but not $8K FSD, - looks like I'm getting charged $10K for FSD (MVOA hasn't been updated yet, still showing Plaid + pricing).

Close enough for me - I'm pulling the trigger.

 

[Pezpunk]

And just like that, my reservation has now changed from Plaid + to regular Plaid, with a $10K discount ($135,990 instead of $145,990 for black Plaid, FSD, and 21"wheels), now asking for registration, payment method etc (that is new as of today). So it looks like I get the $10K discount, but not $8K FSD, - looks like I'm getting charged $10K for FSD (MVOA hasn't been updated yet, still showing Plaid + pricing).

Close enough for me - I'm pulling the trigger.

Can confirm. Mine too. Plaid base price is $124,490 and FSD is $10k. It's a good deal .... that's actually less than i paid for the P100D. I'll sleep on it and decide tomorrow.

 

[MC3OZ]

Subsidized by the purchase price? $180K for a vehicle with 900 to 1,000 kWh of battery? In the “old days” Tesla charged $100K for the 100D, or $1,000/kWh. The semi, at $180 to $200 /kWh, is 5x cheaper per kWh…

I have thought about this previously...
I don't think the $.07 rate can be subsidised significantly from the purchase price, except perhaps for early adopters...
When we look at a solar farm LCOE is $50 MWh or $.05, so with a solar farm Megacharger Tesla can potentially breakeven.
Selling solar and services to the grid, and Supercharging would also be profitable,
A build like that is capital intensive, even with Megachargers spaced every 250 Miles.

LCOE from large scale PV fell 4% to $50 per megawatt-hour in six months

Analysts at Bloomberg New Energy Finance say the lowest-cost projects financed in Australia, China, Chile and the UAE in the last six months hit a levelized cost of energy of just $23-29/MWh and the best solar and wind projects will produce electricity for less than $20/MWh by 2030.

www.pv-magazine.com

(This is April last year, the LCOE is probably lower now.)

The other alternative is Tesla may be able to enter into long term fix price supply contracts with solar and wind farms...

Every Megacharger will probably have at least 1 Megapack, maybe they can make money or save money with just the big battery and a smaller solar installation.
I'm aware solar isn't going to work in every location.

Megacharging itself is probably 4x250 kW not that different from charging 4 cars at the same time, the economic side is more challenging.

The other reason I favor solar farms with big batteries is the ability to "Island" and remain operational if the grid goes down.

My other thought is trucks may schedule charges in advance, the electricity for the charge needs to be in a battery hence guaranteed and trucks don't want to wait around... So not only is their an economic challenge, there is a service level challenge.

 

[Mokuzai]

And just like that, my reservation has now changed from Plaid + to regular Plaid, with a $10K discount ($135,990 instead of $145,990 for black Plaid, FSD, and 21"wheels), now asking for registration, payment method etc (that is new as of today). So it looks like I get the $10K discount, but not $8K FSD, - looks like I'm getting charged $10K for FSD (MVOA hasn't been updated yet, still showing Plaid + pricing).

Close enough for me - I'm pulling the trigger.

Same here, got the $10k off but not the $8k FSD. So the white/white/carbon fiber order I have is saying July on my reservation and still August on the design studio. Looks like we get to keep our old place in line.

 

[Chenkers]

Here's the site plan that Tobias Lindh posted with my English translation courtesy of Google Translate:

 

[Pezpunk]

Can confirm. Mine too. Plaid base price is $124,490 and FSD is $10k. It's a good deal .... that's actually less than i paid for the P100D. I'll sleep on it and decide tomorrow.

Minor correction, i had the base price wrong. base price is $119k, but if i click "edit order" it changes it to $129k. I wonder if they would still honor the discounted price if i changed anything. Probably don't want to risk it.

 

[Singuy]

Not much in this very long interview with Jim Keller about Tesla. The only new thing I learned is what the title said..he thought of himself as the laziest employee at Tesla..lol.

An AnandTech Interview with Jim Keller: 'The Laziest Person at Tesla'

www.anandtech.com

 

[sentabo]

And this is one of your 9 posts ever on this forum. Perhaps contribute something useful?

Yes, I'm relatively new here, and am not a prolific poster (nor do I plan to be)---no crime in that, I believe. I do enjoy coming here on occasion and reading some insightful (and friendlier than this) comments, especially regarding TSLA. And when I do post I try to stay on the topic of the thread.

Thanks, though, for what I hope was an attempt at constructive criticism.

 

[StealthP3D]

I have thought about this previously...
I don't think the $.07 rate can be subsidised significantly from the purchase price, except perhaps for early adopters...
When we look at a solar farm LCOE is $50 MWh or $.05, so with a solar farm Megacharger Tesla can potentially breakeven.
Selling solar and services to the grid, and Supercharging would also be profitable,
A build like that is capital intensive, even with Megachargers spaced every 250 Miles.

LCOE from large scale PV fell 4% to $50 per megawatt-hour in six months

Analysts at Bloomberg New Energy Finance say the lowest-cost projects financed in Australia, China, Chile and the UAE in the last six months hit a levelized cost of energy of just $23-29/MWh and the best solar and wind projects will produce electricity for less than $20/MWh by 2030.

www.pv-magazine.com

(This is April last year, the LCOE is probably lower now.)

The other alternative is Tesla may be able to enter into long term fix price supply contracts with solar and wind farms...

Every Megacharger will probably have at least 1 Megapack, maybe they can make money or save money with just the big battery and a smaller solar installation.
I'm aware solar isn't going to work in every location.

Megacharging itself is probably 4x250 kW not that different from charging 4 cars at the same time, the economic side is more challenging.

The other reason I favor solar farms with big batteries is the ability to "Island" and remain operational if the grid goes down.

My other thought is trucks may schedule charges in advance, the electricity for the charge needs to be in a battery hence guaranteed and trucks don't want to wait around... So not only is their an economic challenge, there is a service level challenge.

I suspect the megapacks will be to handle transient loads and prevent high demand charges. The Megachargers will be built near major transmission lines so they can feed solar generation back into the grid when the batteries are topped up. With a relatively predictable consumption, mostly during non-peak times, their per kWh wholesale price should be relatively low, especially after considering any solar/battery arbitrage they might do.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Perfect, in all aspects.
like the stock price movement today.

 

[StealthP3D]

Perfect, in all aspects.
like the stock price movement today.

Congrats! Looks good!

 

[PeterJA]

I agree Tesla will do it better and cheaper, but I was over-optimistic before.

Before, I thought Cruise would have a $90k vehicle. Before I thought Cruise would have a 250k mile life. Before I thought map creation and map maintenance would be large cost factors.

so my thinking has evolved from Tesla having a $0.50 / mile cost advantage to maybe only a $0.20 / mile advantage. Still huge. Just not as great as I thought before.

This may be something everyone already knew, but it was a new revelation for me.

To be clear, I doubt Cruise/GM’s ability to deliver, but if they do, it reduces Tesla’s advantage from what I personally thought it would be.

Robotaxi service seems like a "winner takes most" market (Cathie Wood's phrase).

To compete with Tesla, Cruise must have enough robo-vehicles on the road to get to you quicker than a Tesla when you call one. How will Cruise manage that if Tesla has a big head-start, and Cruise can't make much money until they have built a comparable fleet?

Other things being equal, the lowest-cost service will win big. I doubt that Cruise has any design features or technology that Tesla can't match or exceed. More likely the converse is true, given Tesla's engineering prowess and rate of innovation.

I think your original optimism was not excessive.

 

[MC3OZ]

On Robotaxis, I'm fairly convinced that Tesla has good efficient solutions for every aspect except cleaning...
They may have a good solution for cleaning, but there is no reason why they would tell us about it now,.

In terms of fleet scheduling it has occurred to me the Tesla VPP software might be something close to an ideal software platform.

Each Robotaxi could report it's "ground truth" in terms of SOC (Battery level), locationion, availability, travel speed, traffic conditions, etc.
Smart AI scheduling software similar to "Autobidder" could allocate fares to Robotaxis in an efficient manner, and dispatch the optimal Robotaxi for the job...

New jobs come into the central dispatch via the app, the entire system is fully automated and very efficient, with minimal human oversight.
Like "Autobidder" the scheduler can do forward forecasting of demand based on past experience.

I've have long thought Tesla will have the lowest fleet cost, and hence the largest fleet, dispatching that fleet efficiently is an additional advantage.

Time is money, most customers want the first Robotaxi to arrive, provided that Robotaxi is clean and safe, It is a bonus if that car has great in car entertainment, sound system and HVAC.

Customers will soon get sick of geofenced solutions that can't go where they want to go, or slow service where the Robtaxi takes too long to arrive, or exceeds the original estimated arrival signicantly.

Cost wise, I'm also confident Tesla can match any competitors price..