Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

Moneyball tweet suggests that China ministry for industry is looking to encourage the creation of an open vehicle OS to allow platform creation. Sounds like a clever idea to me and probably overcomes one of the biggest hurdles for new entrants into the EV space. If 3rd party manufacturing also scales beyond the current levels seen from Magna et al. then there could potentially be quite a dynamic system for "asset lite" new entrants to start a business. Still won't be easy, but in theory you could start up with "just" the designs and outsource the rest.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1405771159967203335

 

[Buckminster]

Telling Tesla customers and aspiring Tesla customers they can't have their own cars would be a mistake.

And giving all that business to competitors.

Governments will not allow Tesla to become a monopoly even if Elon wanted one.

Don't worry Rob - you will still be able to buy your Rivian.

What competitors?

If Tesla robotaxis' complete 49% of all road journeys in every country in the world at a fraction of the cost of the other 51%, there won't be much resistance. Same with Amazon regardless of Lina Khan trying to slow them down.

 

[hobbes]

So this is confirmation that Tesla uses a dry process? No mention of solvents and recuperation of solvents anymore.
That should give confidence that the Roadrunner battery production system is good enough for volume production.

Yes (it is confirmation of a dry process) and no (not full confidence, as @avoigt reports they will be using 2170s at the same time/in parallel). My read is they are giving themselves some time to ramp up the new 4680+structural pack manufacturing, whatever that means (only being careful or roadrunner system not quite ready for prime time yet).

 

[jeewee3000]

This must surely back up the notion that the car continues to use 18650, and hasn't graduated up to something newer.

(Yes there have been some pretty authoritative statements on the matter already)

It amazes me to think about the improvements that loom on the horizon for Model S/X - when its performance is now so incredible:

* front casting piece
* rear casting piece
* switch to 4680 cells
* structured pack

These improvements will all allow Tesla to "dial in" the exact performance improvements they want - acceleration, range, and profitability. Tesla might upgrade the range of the car a bit more, keep the acceleration the same, but make the car lighter, for better handling+range again, and a cheaper cost of construction. Will we see a reduction in retail price or just take more profit per vehicle? It's Tesla's choice... and possible they will add FSD as standard and keep the base price of the car the same at $79,900.

(While I'm here... it's my opinion that FSD will become standard on all Tesla vehicles at some point)

Not disagreeing with you in the sense that even the refreshed S and X have room for improvement regarding manifacturing and possibly some specs BUT...

You're basically talking about designing and building an entirely new vehicle. Current refreshed models S and X will not gradually update to said castings and/or 4680 structural battery. As opposed to the Model 3/Y made in Fremont, those will gradually adapt to Berlin/Texas manufacturing methods.

 

[nativewolf]

Moneyball tweet suggests that China ministry for industry is looking to encourage the creation of an open vehicle OS to allow platform creation. Sounds like a clever idea to me and probably overcomes one of the biggest hurdles for new entrants into the EV space. If 3rd party manufacturing also scales beyond the current levels seen from Magna et al. then there could potentially be quite a dynamic system for "asset lite" new entrants to start a business. Still won't be easy, but in theory you could start up with "just" the designs and outsource the rest.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1405771159967203335

Terrible. This means that China is going to try to muscle everyone out of the vehicle space and recognizes that they don't do software well and so they will try to force others to make the software and innovate and china will provide low cost manufacturing and destroy those doing actual manufacturing (tesla, rivian, ford, vw, etc) and IP development.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Terrible. This means that China is going to try to muscle everyone out of the vehicle space and recognizes that they don't do software well and so they will try to force others to make the software and innovate and china will provide low cost manufacturing and destroy those doing actual manufacturing (tesla, rivian, ford, vw, etc) and IP development.

Is this a modernized version of intellectual property theft? Hopefully Tesla has its eyes wide open looking at not only the opportunities in China, but also the threats.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Is this a modernized version of intellectual property theft? Hopefully Tesla has its eyes wide open looking at not only the opportunities in China, but also the threats.

Industrial policy, long term thinking/planning? Common sense?

 

[avoigt]

I'm not sure they read their own article before making that headline.

In the article:


...nothing about stopping building fossil cars.

Only that they would stop introducing them. As in launching new models.

My interpretation is that they can still build fossil car models introduced in 2025 several years later.

Trying to read the German source I come to the same conclusion. Audi will stop launcing new fossil fuel models by 2026. And a few years later they will only launch EVs.

Perhaps @avoigt is a better interpreter of German language than I am and could clarify?

Source: https://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/audi-verbrenner-elektromobilitaet-1.5325505?reduced=true

Your interpretation is spot on

German Automakers have not given any end date for ICE nor for its sales and development. What they leaked intentionally is that they discuss internally, likely also driven by the Green Party statements to end production (Germany is in an election this fall) to consider ending new model developments of ICE and PHEVs.

That's does not mean that old models are not refreshed and updated to sell them another decade or two. It also does not mean they stop selling ICE as wrongly reported from Bloomberg and Reuters and copied from everybody else.

Also, there is no official statement but just rumors about it.

I have seen this communication tactic from legacy auto for more than a decade working well for them by creating the impression to go BEV but in reality, doing all they can to sell vehicles with the best margin - ICE vehicles.

The German wording is in my opinion purposely done in a way that international media believes it means ending ICE but that's not the case at all.

To all listening, I only and strongly recommend being very careful with all and everything legacy auto releases as PR or communication message. Its usually not worth the paper its written on. Assess them on what they do.

 

[samppa]

Not disagreeing with you in the sense that even the refreshed S and X have room for improvement regarding manifacturing and possibly some specs BUT...

You're basically talking about designing and building an entirely new vehicle. Current refreshed models S and X will not gradually update to said castings and/or 4680 structural battery. As opposed to the Model 3/Y made in Fremont, those will gradually adapt to Berlin/Texas manufacturing methods.

Said castings also probably require high volume vehicles to be profitable. S/X is after all low volume.

 

[15Peter20]

Your interpretation is spot on

German Automakers have not given any end date for ICE nor for its sales and development. What they leaked intentionally is that they discuss internally, likely also driven by the Green Party statements to end production (Germany is in an election this fall) to consider ending new model developments of ICE and PHEVs.

That's does not mean that old models are not refreshed and updated to sell them another decade or two. It also does not mean they stop selling ICE as wrongly reported from Bloomberg and Reuters and copied from everybody else.

Also, there is no official statement but just rumors about it.

I have seen this communication tactic from legacy auto for more than a decade working well for them by creating the impression to go BEV but in reality, doing all they can to sell vehicles with the best margin - ICE vehicles.

The German wording is in my opinion purposely done in a way that international media believes it means ending ICE but that's not the case at all.

To all listening, I only and strongly recommend being very careful with all and everything legacy auto releases as PR or communication message. Its usually not worth the paper its written on. Assess them on what they do.

They are in a strange place. Most new ICE powertrain development has ceased, or will cease after the next, final, development cycle. But what then? These engines will not be Euro 7 compliant (assuming Euro 7 becomes law of course) so they will have to be phased out this decade anyway. Surely they have no choice but to go all-in on BEV, but as we know this by itself will destroy or greatly diminish legacy OEM.

 

[wtlloyd]

This is definitely going on my calendar for July 13 :

IDRA GROUP | INSIDE IDRA - Shipping times and costs Giga Press​

Does "Premier" mean that it's pay for view?

 

[jbcarioca]

Is this a modernized version of intellectual property theft? Hopefully Tesla has its eyes wide open looking at not only the opportunities in China, but also the threats.

NO

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

Said castings also probably require high volume vehicles to be profitable. S/X is after all low volume.

@jeewee3000, @MartinAustin, you seem to imply that the new S/X are not using castings. What information are you basing this on? Some of the S pictures seem to show that castings are used but it is difficult to see if these are single piece (or multipiece like the early model Y) and both front and rear.

If anyone has some info/pictures it would be great if you could share.

edit: added screenshot from the Tesla website S description. Seems to show a casting at the rear but difficult to see the extent.

 

[Singuy]

Moneyball tweet suggests that China ministry for industry is looking to encourage the creation of an open vehicle OS to allow platform creation. Sounds like a clever idea to me and probably overcomes one of the biggest hurdles for new entrants into the EV space. If 3rd party manufacturing also scales beyond the current levels seen from Magna et al. then there could potentially be quite a dynamic system for "asset lite" new entrants to start a business. Still won't be easy, but in theory you could start up with "just" the designs and outsource the rest.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1405771159967203335

After the Huawai ban, it's definitely a good idea to build an open source OS to protect from future shenanigans that can be pulled by the US.

 

[Singuy]

Randy said he passed a Porsche gt 4 like it was standing still. So it wasn't a courtesy pass.

 

[UkNorthampton]

It may be more about political national security concerns, regarding the supply of raw materials for EV battery production. For example what happens to country with a large automotive production sector if it doesn’t have a domestic source for raw material and other countries stop allowing it to be sent? Tnis may be less of an issue for hydrogen Fuel cell components.

Specifically it was burning hydrogen as part of the fuel mix. There have been similar proposals to add hydrogen to UK domestic 'natural' ie fossil gas networks. Small percentage might be safe, but I suspect adding any hydrogen will embrittle pipes/pumps & other parts of the infrastructure. Status quo fossil fuelers clutching at straws but getting government kudos, funding & kicking can down the road. I expect explosions

Project Phases - HyDeploy

hydeploy.co.uk

HyDeploy is a pioneering energy demonstration to establish the potential for blending hydrogen, up to 20%, into the normal gas supply so that we can reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. A live demonstration of blended gas has taken place on part of the Keele gas network and finished in March 2021. HyDeploy will help to determine the level of hydrogen which can be used by customers safely and with no changes to their existing domestic appliances.

Tesla related: this is some of the last ICE research going on commercially (AFAIK) - trying to run new/old ICE on blended hydrogen. Expect FUD, articles & propaganda (eg Daily Mail comments - "I'm waiting for hydrogen"). It's different from fuel cells.
cars: ICE - blended sythetic/hydrogen/fossil fuels vs EV - better
domestic: water heaters (boilers) using pure hydrogen or mix of hydrogen & other fuels vs air source heat pumps

 

[Nocturnal]

Nobody say anything.

 

[Artful Dodger]

@jeewee3000, @MartinAustin, you seem to imply that the new S/X are not using castings. What information are you basing this on? Some of the S pictures seem to show that castings are used but it is difficult to see if these are single piece (or multipiece like the early model Y) and both front and rear.

If anyone has some info/pictures it would be great if you could share.

edit: added screenshot from the Tesla website S description. Seems to show a casting at the rear but difficult to see the extent.

From photos taken at the Plaid Delivery event, the rear structure looks like a single piece traverse aluminum casting: (see the silvery colored component in the center of this photo)

It's also possible that rear side structures are castings as well (black-colored webbed casting in center-left of above photo).

This would allow Tesla to reuse the smaller casting machines that were used in first production of Model Y in 2020Q1 (well before the first Gigapress was operational sometime in 2020Q3). That's the kind of smart use of capital expense that allows Tesla to increase margins with every generation of new production. Brilliant.

Cheers!

 

[redan]

Looks like Austin is Tesla's version of a Field of Dreams (if you build it, they will come). More Tesla suppliers building in and around Austin:

https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/news/2021/06/16/simwon-manufacturer-grabs-space-in-kyle.html

Many suppliers are expected to follow Tesla Inc. to Central Texas as the electric vehicle manufacturer gets closer to producing cars east of Austin, and this one seems to be on the larger side.

https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/...ornia-based-plastikon-plans-kyle-factory.html

This company making things such as steering wheels and consoles appears to be headed to the suburbs south of Austin. Manufacturing experts are talking about a "wave of Tesla suppliers" starting to arrive in the region, as construction continues on the electric vehicle company's $1.1 billion factory. This is the second notable Tesla-tied factory to surface this week.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

And just like that, my reservation has now changed from Plaid + to regular Plaid, with a $10K discount ($135,990 instead of $145,990 for black Plaid, FSD, and 21"wheels), now asking for registration, payment method etc (that is new as of today). So it looks like I get the $10K discount, but not $8K FSD, - looks like I'm getting charged $10K for FSD (MVOA hasn't been updated yet, still showing Plaid + pricing).

Close enough for me - I'm pulling the trigger.

Sarah is gonna be the coolest kid on the block! Congrats!