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Tesla finishes red; hours before revealing hopefully strong #'s; while Lucid is randomly up 10% out of the blue.

Markets are weird.


ok, think I figured out what the catalyst for the 10% Lucid climb today was. Interestingly, I think Tesla had a lot to do with it.



TL; DR : Pete Rawlinson envisions the EV battle as a "two horse race" - Tesla & Lucid. Lucid has over 10,000 reservations - some that have paid over $7k in deposits. Orders increasing.


"From Rawlinson’s point of view the enhanced competition will only make the industry better. But he’s only really concerned about one company, and it’s one he knows well because he used to work there.

“Ultimately, it's the technology that's going to win, and what's missing here is the recognition that this is a technology race,” he says. “And right now, there is one runner in that tech race and it's Tesla. That's why Tesla commands that market cap. That's why it's in that preeminent position.”


My take:
No threat to Tesla whatsoever - threat to ICE though / S class; 7 series etc. (Full disclosure: I have a position in Lucid (much smaller than my TSLA position)) I'm glad they exist, as more than one player in a space is healthy for the customer.
 
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ok, think I figured out what the catalyst for the 10% Lucid climb today was. Interestingly, I think Tesla had a lot to do with it.



TL; DR : Pete Rawlinson envisions the EV battle as a "two horse race" - Tesla & Lucid. Lucid has over 10,000 reservations - some that have paid over $7k in deposits. Orders increasing.


"From Rawlinson’s point of view the enhanced competition will only make the industry better. But he’s only really concerned about one company, and it’s one he knows well because he used to work there.

“Ultimately, it's the technology that's going to win, and what's missing here is the recognition that this is a technology race,” he says. “And right now, there is one runner in that tech race and it's Tesla. That's why Tesla commands that market cap. That's why it's in that preeminent position.”


My take:
No threat to Tesla whatsoever - threat to ICE though / S class; 7 series etc. (Full disclosure: I have a position in Lucid (much smaller than my TSLA position)) I'm glad they exist, as more than one player in a space is healthy for the customer.

Companies like Lucid, Rivian, Arcimoto also give the opponents of clean energy and transport additional targets, and take some of the heat off Tesla.

 
Is it just me or is Ross a Chauncey the gardener in the flesh? Never seen any kind of serious intellectual output from this guy, and a lot of gross 'oooh look at me I'm rich and got a plaid' vibes (which people unhealthily associate money with talent/authority) while being a questionable quality manager of OPM. I say this with the small hesitance that at least he's right for being in Tesla and that matters more than sounding right but still. I feel old because there are brand new investors just flooding into the market and they get attracted to people like this. His tweets sound almost always like someone faking competence. I mean 'you should buy Arcimoto because it has a high short interest and we need to stick it to climate haters'. What an odd thing to say for a portfolio manager. Even if you ideologically want to support green companies, you still have to decide which to support based on their likelihood of solidly managing themselves much bigger.
 
she whispered to me as I was leaving that she wanted to buy him a model X for his birthday! (He bought her the model S for her birthday).

First world problems.... 😊 😊 😊
Speaking of first world problems; I neglected to mention one of my favorite new features that has been mostly overlooked…ventilated seats. Seems to be perfectly correlated to HVAC settings. Fantastic solution for sweaty summer grapes. 😊😊😊
 
My expertise is with the financials. My track record forecasting deliveries is so so. Please consider this when assessing the number.
If I take the numbers from Tesla_China_Analyst (and the CPCA) for Shanghai, I come up with 196,208 deliveries as outlined below.
This number will still produce Record-Breaking Revenues, Gross Profit, GAAP Income and Non-GAAP income.

View attachment 679943
Those numbers seem sensible but are you buying more Tesla stock tomorrow ?
 
Is it just me or is Ross a Chauncey the gardener in the flesh? Never seen any kind of serious intellectual output from this guy, and a lot of gross 'oooh look at me I'm rich and got a plaid' vibes (which people unhealthily associate money with talent/authority) while being a questionable quality manager of OPM. I say this with the small hesitance that at least he's right for being in Tesla and that matters more than sounding right but still. I feel old because there are brand new investors just flooding into the market and they get attracted to people like this. His tweets sound almost always like someone faking competence. I mean 'you should buy Arcimoto because it has a high short interest and we need to stick it to climate haters'. What an odd thing to say for a portfolio manager. Even if you ideologically want to support green companies, you still have to decide which to support based on their likelihood of solidly managing themselves much bigger.

I have no idea if Arcimoto is a good bet...

I understand where you are coming from, I think Ross has been fairly successful, but he seems like a 'big picture"guy.

There is a mentality around where people like to gang up and inflict pain on shorts, while that is a good thing, it isn't always going to turn out to be a winning formula.
 
I have no idea if Arcimoto is a good bet...

I understand where you are coming from, I think Ross has been fairly successful, but he seems like a 'big picture"guy.

There is a mentality around where people like to gang up and inflict pain on shorts, while that is a good thing, it isn't always going to turn out to be a winning formula.

Presumably he is hoping for a meme stock lift on a stock he holds. I call that weak sauce but I only really support the game of putting capital where capital is deserved not playing short-term gains based on market inefficiencies or weird market psychology. He should lead by example and lay the claim for what the value is on the table but I'm not sure he can do that kind of thing which is the problem.
 
decanterorigin.PNG

Apparently the decanter is shipped out from the Tesla warehouse in Lathrop.
 
Am I the only one who finds it suspicious that a Model S mysteriously catches on fire and burns with no driver inside exactly at the end of every quarter? And for some reason the media is always ready with a flood of stories about it featuring oddly well-informed local officials who always know there was no one in the car and it was driving itself?

I wonder how much someone is paying to buy these cars, set them up with some sort of incendiary, plan and execute the car's destruction, and then pay off local officials and the media. The amount of work and funding needed to coordinate this every quarter is impressive.
color me very suspicious as there is no quotes from the actual owner of the car (but I'll wait until Tesla releases data and/or NHTSA). But I've been that way for quite a while...

This one started it all for me: Tesla reports third fire involving Model S electric car (2013 supposed "pike" incident which happened just about the nearest place possible to the Nissan Leaf plant in Smyrna, TN). Just too weird...

2013 model s fire.png
 
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My expertise is with the financials. My track record forecasting deliveries is so so. Please consider this when assessing the number.
If I take the numbers from Tesla_China_Analyst (and the CPCA) for Shanghai, I come up with 196,208 deliveries as outlined below.
This number will still produce Record-Breaking Revenues, Gross Profit, GAAP Income and Non-GAAP income.

View attachment 679943
It's a pretty tight grouping of forecasts this quarter. Pretty much all the respected forecasts are between 195k-210k. Which is 202.5k +-4%. I'm not going to quibble over 4%, it's an excellent result regardless of the final number.
 
OK, so I know this is anecdotal, but a bunch of people from all over the world in this Twitter thread at Sawyer's account report that their local galleries/delivery centers delivered everything that wasn't bolted down by, or before (!) the last day of the Q.

Locations in the US include Santa Barbara, Austin (and saying that of Texas had 1 car in inventory yesterday), Mt. Kisco NY, Sunnyvale, Dedham MA, Century City LA mall, Sarasota Fl, San Diego, LA West side, Portland OR, Oahu Hawaii, Peabody MA, Princeton, Long Island, Brea CA.

International locations reporting: Denmark (no specific store mentioned), Mannheim Germany, Canada (not specific), Toronto Canada, Chelmsford/Essex UK.

Not sure if I have ever seen anything like this before, usually it is madness until the last business hour (or beyond). Could be good or bad, don't know, but Sawyer also mentions that "Some locations in the US are delivering up to 6 cars per hour on some days, a new all time high".
 
On the last day of Q2 when TSLA is set to knock it out of the park on earnings, an empty Tesla in a secluded neighborhood, driving on autopilot with no driver to be found burns up. Nope, not skeptical at all (sarcasm). I do regret not having kept a running tally of such events within a couple days of earnings over the last decade. These end-of-quarter Tesla vehicle sacrifices have certainly put a dent in the TSLAQ operating fund and left a few of those folks camping out in mom’s basement far longer than intended
Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man
 
Well this is one way to verify the battery format for Plaid. (A Plaid was destroyed by fire in Pennsylvania - source of fire is unknown.)


View attachment 679893

So definitely no 4680s. Tried to determine whether it is 18650s or 2179s by determining length/thickness ration via pixel-counting, but uncertainty is too large to tell them apart (18650 is 0.277 2170 is 0.30).