Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[NicoV]

Statistically speaking it is a little concerning to have 1 fire with the number of plaid models out and about, but hard to have any real confidence. I would definitely be eager to send my chief investigation crew if I was Tesla. Not sure what else to say about it.

pretty sure Elon explicitly said 18650 like in the q4 call perhaps.

If we see a similar incident next week and the week afterwards, then it’s time to start worrying. For this incident, the circumstances are weird so there’s probably more behind it than just a car fire.

 

[Wicket]

If we see a similar incident next week and the week afterwards, then it’s time to start worrying. For this incident, the circumstances are weird so there’s probably more behind it than just a car fire.

Plausibly there is something shady but we don't need 1 fire a week to suspect a problem. Not with a couple thousand on the road.

 

[RobStark]

OK, so I know this is anecdotal, but a bunch of people from all over the world in this Twitter thread at Sawyer's account report that their local galleries/delivery centers delivered everything that wasn't bolted down by, or before (!) the last day of the Q.

Locations in the US include Santa Barbara, Austin (and saying that of Texas had 1 car in inventory yesterday), Mt. Kisco NY, Sunnyvale, Dedham MA, Century City LA mall, Sarasota Fl, San Diego, LA West side, Portland OR, Oahu Hawaii, Peabody MA, Princeton, Long Island, Brea CA.

International locations reporting: Denmark (no specific store mentioned), Mannheim Germany, Canada (not specific), Toronto Canada, Chelmsford/Essex UK.

Not sure if I have ever seen anything like this before, usually it is madness until the last business hour (or beyond). Could be good or bad, don't know, but Sawyer also mentions that "Some locations in the US are delivering up to 6 cars per hour on some days, a new all time high".

I will add no stock in Torrance, CA store. Not even display models inside the store since Monday June 28.

 

[lascavarian]

Plausibly there is something shady but we don't need 1 fire a week to suspect a problem. Not with a couple thousand on the road.

There is a lot fire damage. Seems like maybe the front left tire did not burn.

 

[Thekiwi]

OK, so I know this is anecdotal, but a bunch of people from all over the world in this Twitter thread at Sawyer's account report that their local galleries/delivery centers delivered everything that wasn't bolted down by, or before (!) the last day of the Q.

Locations in the US include Santa Barbara, Austin (and saying that of Texas had 1 car in inventory yesterday), Mt. Kisco NY, Sunnyvale, Dedham MA, Century City LA mall, Sarasota Fl, San Diego, LA West side, Portland OR, Oahu Hawaii, Peabody MA, Princeton, Long Island, Brea CA.

International locations reporting: Denmark (no specific store mentioned), Mannheim Germany, Canada (not specific), Toronto Canada, Chelmsford/Essex UK.

Not sure if I have ever seen anything like this before, usually it is madness until the last business hour (or beyond). Could be good or bad, don't know, but Sawyer also mentions that "Some locations in the US are delivering up to 6 cars per hour on some days, a new all time high".

Isn’t this pretty standard? the only geographic location anyone is worried about demand in currently is China. If we get reports saying China showrooms a sold out I would be more excited.

 

[15Peter20]

Renault's press office have written a corporate suicide note:

https://www.press.renault.co.uk/en-gb/releases/2879

These companies have their heads so far in the sand they can taste oil.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Quick news from France: They sold 5,001 Model 3s in June, which is a new, all-time monthly record for Tesla according to our own tracker.

Voiture électrique : la Tesla Model 3 casse la baraque en juin

Totalisant plus de 5 000 immatriculations, la Tesla Model 3 signe un nouveau record sur un marché électrique fortement dynamisé par la perspective de la baisse du bonus.

www.automobile-propre.com

EDIT: just to balance it out, Austria is coming in at 807, which is lower than expected.

 

[hobbes]

OK, so I know this is anecdotal, but a bunch of people from all over the world in this Twitter thread at Sawyer's account report that their local galleries/delivery centers delivered everything that wasn't bolted down by, or before (!) the last day of the Q.

Locations in the US include Santa Barbara, Austin (and saying that of Texas had 1 car in inventory yesterday), Mt. Kisco NY, Sunnyvale, Dedham MA, Century City LA mall, Sarasota Fl, San Diego, LA West side, Portland OR, Oahu Hawaii, Peabody MA, Princeton, Long Island, Brea CA.

International locations reporting: Denmark (no specific store mentioned), Mannheim Germany, Canada (not specific), Toronto Canada, Chelmsford/Essex UK.

Not sure if I have ever seen anything like this before, usually it is madness until the last business hour (or beyond). Could be good or bad, don't know, but Sawyer also mentions that "Some locations in the US are delivering up to 6 cars per hour on some days, a new all time high".

Sounds good.

Just to play devil´s advocate, there could still be S with missing trim pieces etc. in Fremont. IIRC correctly very recent Fremont drone flyover showed lots of S there still. To me this rush points to them just barely hitting some internal goal, likely 200,000 deliveries. But that is just a guess.

 

[hobbes]

Renault's press office have written a corporate suicide note:

https://www.press.renault.co.uk/en-gb/releases/2879

These companies have their heads so far in the sand they can taste oil.

Gotta love the name ElectroPop ...

Except for that, what is wrong with the strategy? Not all that bad compared to other incumbents IMHO.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Renault's press office have written a corporate suicide note:

https://www.press.renault.co.uk/en-gb/releases/2879

These companies have their heads so far in the sand they can taste oil.

I quite liked this "

• Two icons, with the Renault 5 model 33 per cent cheaper than Zoe, and the timeless revival of “4ever”
• A strong all-electric C-segment offering featuring the All-new MéganE in 2022

...

• A highly compact e-powertrain enabling 30 per cent reduction in costs with 45 per cent reduction in wasted energy, allowing an extra EV range of up to 20km (12 miles)

"
Any talk of 2024-2030 leaves me cold. Didn't like this, far too slow & use of electrified as a term (includes hybrids)

"The Group aims at providing the greenest mix in the European market in 2025, with more than 65 per cent of vehicles in the sales mix electric and electrified, and up to 90 per cent battery electric vehicles in the Renault brand mix in 2030."

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Sweden came in at a monthly record 1499 for June. Someone was comparing to March this year, this is up 307 from the 1192 then. Previous record was 1354 in March 2020.

Q2 2021 was 1741 which is just shy of the record Q2 2019 which was 1782.

 

[15Peter20]

Gotta love the name ElectroPop ...

Except for that, what is wrong with the strategy? Not all that bad compared to other incumbents IMHO.

It looks to rely on hybrids as part of 'electrification' for an indefinite period ('up to 90% electric by 2030' with no mention of the HEV, PHEV, BEV proportions). The battery ambition ('aiming for' 24GWh by 2030) is feeble.

Yes, better than many others, but lacks any appreciation of the tsunami that is about to engulf the industry in the next 5 years or so.

I'm also annoyed by "The Group aims at providing the greenest mix in the European market in 2025, with more than 65 per cent of vehicles in the sales mix electric and electrified"

I know of a company that produces 100 % BEV in all of its markets. Today.

They have also gone the GM and Ford route of announcing the number of new models (who cares?), with only cursory information on projected sales, particularly of BEVs.

 

[Criscmt]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1410537991236243461

I don’t want to jinx it, so, not about TSLA, no tinfoil hats please (saying while adjusting mine)

 

[lascavarian]

CNBC is discussing whether now is the time to buy coming up soon. Not sure who will be the guest . Earlier they flashed a screen glyph related to P&D numbers but it must have been a mistake.

it’s Dan Ives. Whisper possible could be 205 to 210k. He is bullish. Best way to play the green tidal wave is Tesla. Could see 900k this year.

1000 price target. Btc confusion is an overhang on the stock.

 

[Tslynk67]

Well, as of this morning, just three pre-owned Teslas available in Belgium, one each S 3 X, so the 9 red M3's that were there yesterday either got bought or returned back for demo

 

[RobStark]

They have also gone the GM and Ford route of announcing the number of new models (who cares?), with only cursory information on projected sales, particularly of BEVs.

Ford has said they aim to sell 600k MEB based BEVs in Europe by 2030. By 2026 all European models will be PHEV or BEV no HEV. Additionally, Ford is expected formalize a JV agreement with South Korea Innovation to produce two 30 GWh battery factories in the USA.

GM is finishing a 30 GWh battery factory in Ohio, about to break ground on a second in Tennessee, and has approved two more in a JV with LG Energy solutions. Total 120 GWh.

What particular models and what projected sales are in a particular year is not material.

We know by consumer demand and governmental push sales of BEVs will be massive in coming years. What is critical is battery supply.

If you are a startup it is ok early on to depend on buying cells as you go from a battery manufacturers wholly owned battery plant. There will be an extra GWh supply here and there. When major OEMs say they will transition their entire fleet to BEV in 8-15 years then they need to start talking about JVs with cell manufacturers as well as mineral supply with Mining Companies.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Likely to be some Tesla related stuff as Gridserve co-locate with Tesla. Shows that charging networks unaffiliated with fossil can be Tesla friends on many levels - on in 4 minutes now

https://twitter.com/x/status/1410547915450470401

 

[Prunesquallor]

OK, so I know this is anecdotal, but a bunch of people from all over the world in this Twitter thread at Sawyer's account report that their local galleries/delivery centers delivered everything that wasn't bolted down by, or before (!) the last day of the Q.

Locations in the US include Santa Barbara, Austin (and saying that of Texas had 1 car in inventory yesterday), Mt. Kisco NY, Sunnyvale, Dedham MA, Century City LA mall, Sarasota Fl, San Diego, LA West side, Portland OR, Oahu Hawaii, Peabody MA, Princeton, Long Island, Brea CA.

International locations reporting: Denmark (no specific store mentioned), Mannheim Germany, Canada (not specific), Toronto Canada, Chelmsford/Essex UK.

Not sure if I have ever seen anything like this before, usually it is madness until the last business hour (or beyond). Could be good or bad, don't know, but Sawyer also mentions that "Some locations in the US are delivering up to 6 cars per hour on some days, a new all time high".

It was certainly like that end of 18Q4. That was when tax credits started to go away.

 

[Criscmt]

It was certainly like that end of 18Q4. That was when tax credits started to go away.

Wasn’t end of Q4 2020 similar?

 

[Thomas Edison]

So definitely no 4680s. Tried to determine whether it is 18650s or 2179s by determining length/thickness ration via pixel-counting, but uncertainty is too large to tell them apart (18650 is 0.277 2170 is 0.30).

It’s an 18650, I have both in my hand right now and the ring at the top is the indicator. It’s thinner on a 2170.