Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVWatcher]

You're exactly right: this guy is sniffing around, Joined Oct 25, 2018, 0 messages, 0 reaction score

View attachment 681220

The forum doesn't require registration to see anything. That account could just as well be some random person who thought it would be funny to create an account with that name.

Which doesn't mean he doesn't read the forum. Or that he doesn't have an account under another name. But I think the interest in that specific account is overblown.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Happy Fourth of July to all my American cousins!

George Santayana: "A man's feet must be planted in his country, but his eyes should survey the world."​

Cheers!

 

[Curt Renz]

The forum doesn't require registration to see anything. That account could just as well be some random person who thought it would be funny to create an account with that name.

Which doesn't mean he doesn't read the forum. Or that he doesn't have an account under another name. But I think the interest in that specific account is overblown.

Possibly, but the account's profile indicates that person occasionally visits TMC, and did so as recently as Wednesday. Three years ago in a tweet, E.W. Niedermeyer criticized two TMC posts of mine and posted them in his tweet.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1009490237855170561

 

[EVMeister]

I found this video very insightful about the design of Tesla vehicles. I'm personally a big fan of the design of Tesla vehicles (especially the Model S and Roadster) and appreciate their minimalism. Many other cars look overly aggressive or fussy to me with pointless styling elements which will soon go out of fashion and need to be refreshed. But it's an interesting take on this and explores some of the logic behind it.

Oh and happy Independence Day to my friends over the pond.

 

[Tslynk67]

My favorite example of Audi's threat to Tesla is a video like the following, which I saw years ago. The punchline was Audi executives boasting that their development of a sound for their Etron (an early version that was cancelled) took them three years.

I knew then that catching up to Tesla's rate of innovation would not be easy for Audi and probably other "vintage" automakers. Smarter people move faster.

Key phrase comes right at the end "The Audi eTron is not yet available for commercialisation"

 

[Tslynk67]

Yeah I would say Niedermeyer was right. Musk didn't know all it took to get a full size car manufacturer operational. A wisecrack might even be - that's why he tried. Though looking at Musk taking over running Tesla WHILE he was getting his space company up and running might tell you a thing or two about his stamina and the size of his balls at the time...

Methinks that given enough time, anyone can learn to make cars and scale, but having the vision, ambition, innovation and determination that was required for Tesla to succeed is not something you can pick up along the way

 

[CyberDutchie]

This coming after his two weeks joke and then Tesla putting it on a meme-shirt in less than a few hours soon had better mean less than 7 days. Its getting long past absurd.

As an investor I don’t mind at all the delays in FSD wide release. It’s just a matter of time with the wider release out to get the first fail reports blown up in the media.

As a Tesla owner and enthusiast, I can’t wait to get it, though!

 

[lascavarian]

As a Tesla owner and enthusiast, I can’t wait to get it, though!

Agree. I do imagine that the recent presentation by AK did result in some top talent knocking on Tesla’s door. it would be helpful to give them some time for orientation before a major release.

This is a rare time of a bit of solitude before a wave of high activity. I imagine removing radar and pushing out some quick fixes has allowed some organizational time for adjustment and preparation.

What is about to happen over the next few weeks feels a bit historic in the making. Exciting.

 

[Criscmt]

R&D spending has already gone up from $279 million in Q2 last year to $643 million in Q2 this year (estimate by The Accountant). And despite of that earnings are expected to go up by 600% or more.

I am cognizant of that.
I was considering the hypothetical case of R&D going up in Q2 2021 from Q1 2021 level.
@The Accountant Q1 earnings estimates doesn’t have such growth in R&D in Q2. I was wondering how EPS would change in such higher R&D case.

 

[THKS]

TSLA a political and consumer force by 2024?

Guess there is currently ~750K Tesla drivers/advocates in the US. A relative insignificant group from a political/media perspective which it makes it relatively cost free for negative press/political ignorance (e.g., Biden admin EV messaging).

A completed Giga Texas/Berlin should allow the customer base to grow much faster in the US. Probably very possible to see US deliveries reach 1M/yr by end 2022, and cumulative reach ~4M by next presidential election and >10M by 2028.

What is the critical mass for the tipping point for a political force?

What strategies could be applied now to accelerate awareness that the tipping point will happen, and thus accelerate an early behavioral change?

 

[THKS]

When will TSLA be a political force in the US? How many cumulative US deliveries will it require before it’s generally considered politically foolish to ignore Tesla in EV legislation, and too costly for media to have a negative bias? 4 million? More? When will we reach this tipping point?

 

[Nolimits]

“Just a car company”

 

[Don TLR]

This is an odd “coincidence“

https://twitter.com/x/status/1411355075696500741

 

[winfield100]

From their 13-F linked from article:
View attachment 680850

4th column is $ value in 1,000s
5th is shares
The dual entires are under seperate management (9th col)

there seems to be a possible disparity about number of shares the Susquehanna guy has of TSLA, although a large number, but again i know little to nothing about options

 

[Dan Detweiler]

TSLA a political and consumer force by 2024?

Guess there is currently ~750K Tesla drivers/advocates in the US. A relative insignificant group from a political/media perspective which it makes it relatively cost free for negative press/political ignorance (e.g., Biden admin EV messaging).

A completed Giga Texas/Berlin should allow the customer base to grow much faster in the US. Probably very possible to see US deliveries reach 1M/yr by end 2022, and cumulative reach ~4M by next presidential election and >10M by 2028.

What is the critical mass for the tipping point for a political force?

What strategies could be applied now to accelerate awareness that the tipping point will happen, and thus accelerate an early behavioral change?

I think to claim Tesla owners as any one political leaning or another is an innacurate portrayal of reality. Owning a Tesla has little to do with political bias.

All sorts can see the benefits of owning a Tesla.

Dan

 

[Radish11]

I’m getting a bit nervous about Tesla’s Q2 earnings.
Last quarter was a profit of $438 million. But there were 4500 more cars delivered than built so that was basically 4500 cars that all the expenses were paid in Q4 2020 but all the revenue/profit was booked to Q1.

$438,000,000 - (4500 *50,000 ( average transaction price estimate) = $213,000,000.
Tesla made 5k more cars than delivered this quarter so that’s 5k cars they paid all the costs for but don’t get to book the revenue till q3, so taking the hit for the cost of those vehicles out of earnings I’m going to say 40k ea?
$213,000,000 - 40,000 *5000 = $13,000,000.
subtracting our last quarters bitcoin gain since there def won’t be one this quarter, also subtracting out the bitcoin impairment
$13,000,000 - $101,000,000 - 91,000,000= -$179,000,000.
What worries me is that early in Q2 FCAU said they were no longer going to buy emissions credits which has historically been one of Tesla’s biggest customers, so I think it’s safe to say regulatory credit sales will take a hit in Q2, let’s say total will be $400,000,000 down from $518,000,000 last quarter for a diff of $-118,000,000.

-$179,000,000. - $118,000,000 =-297,000,000
I’m going to add back in $100,000,000 profit for increased volume and higher margins compared to Q1 for a final Q2 Gaap estimate of $-197,000,000

 

[Singuy]

I’m getting a bit nervous about Tesla’s Q2 earnings.
Last quarter was a profit of $438 million. But there were 4500 more cars delivered than built so that was basically 4500 cars that all the expenses were paid in Q4 2020 but all the revenue/profit was booked to Q1.

$438,000,000 - (4500 *50,000 ( average transaction price estimate) = $213,000,000.
Tesla made 5k more cars than delivered this quarter so that’s 5k cars they paid all the costs for but don’t get to book the revenue till q3, so taking the hit for the cost of those vehicles out of earnings I’m going to say 40k ea?
$213,000,000 - 40,000 *5000 = $13,000,000.
subtracting our last quarters bitcoin gain since there def won’t be one this quarter, also subtracting out the bitcoin impairment
$13,000,000 - $101,000,000 - 91,000,000= -$179,000,000.
What worries me is that early in Q2 FCAU said they were no longer going to buy emissions credits which has historically been one of Tesla’s biggest customers, so I think it’s safe to say regulatory credit sales will take a hit in Q2, let’s say total will be $400,000,000 down from $518,000,000 last quarter for a diff of $-118,000,000.

-$179,000,000. - $118,000,000 =-297,000,000
I’m going to add back in $100,000,000 profit for increased volume and higher margins compared to Q1 for a final Q2 Gaap estimate of $-197,000,000

I believe more cars delivered than build vs more build than delivered only affects free cash flow and not really earnings.

 

[Radish11]

I believe more cars delivered than build vs more build than delivered only affects free cash flow and not really earnings.

Can you elaborate on that a bit? Trying to understand all the accounting rules. (Some like the bitcoin impairment rules make no sense)

 

[mongo]

Last quarter was a profit of $438 million. But there were 4500 more cars delivered than built so that was basically 4500 cars that all the expenses were paid in Q4 2020 but all the revenue/profit was booked to Q1.

That is not the correct timing. Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) travels with the vehicle and does not get recognized until the sale.
So it goes from inventory (tracking item) in Q4 to revenue (income) & COGS (expense) in Q1.

 

[Singuy]

Can you elaborate on that a bit? Trying to understand all the accounting rules. (Some like the bitcoin impairment rules make no sense)

I think we need The Accountant to jump in and clarify. I'm not very good with accounting rules as well but just notice this as an observer throughout the years.