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I'm assuming it's for testing in current vehicles and is not structural.

Bill Wright confirmed a tweet which described the pack as both 4680 and structural. Possible I guess that he was focused on one aspect and not the other when he did so.

I am now seeking the definition of structural pack. I would have thought it could not be a drop in replacement for a non structural pack, that would merely be a stiffer pack as it does not provide any structure that isn’t already there.

Edit. I note that he’s replying to tweet A about tweet B. B says structural and 4680. A only mentions 4680.

5F486DB7-2BF6-4386-9135-DE9A93A84DF9.jpeg
 
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I’m sure Fact Checking is referring to Bill Wright as the source. A very intriguing development - Bill has been a straight shooter in the past and not prone to hype; in fact, he’s been quick to shoot down rampant speculation.

yup. in fact Bill was probably the most declarative that Plaid had 18650s instead of 4680s. So for him to say this is a 4680 pack, that carries weight with me.
 
Warren always cheers me up.

He ran some numbers for expected auto profits this year and next, not including FSD or Tesla Energy. Assuming a P/E of 100, his numbers predict the share price will quadruple in the next 18 months.


I like Warren and for the most part his analysis is very good, BUT he is consistently over-optimistic with his production expectations. He plans for 2 million units produced in 2022 to get his valuations, and I feel that's just too high. I think it will be more like 1.5-1.6 million units in 2022, so his 4X prediction is equally a bit over aggressive IMHO.
 
Warren always cheers me up.

He ran some numbers for expected auto profits this year and next, not including FSD or Tesla Energy. Assuming a P/E of 100, his numbers predict the share price will quadruple in the next 18 months.

Well IF he is correct, long dated options would be rather profitable.

According to optionsprofitcalculator.com,
a $1,500 strike January 2023 call costing $4,500 would be worth $105,000 if the share price reaches $2,600 at expiration. Of course, if the share price only doubles over the next 18 months, that option would expire worthless.

Who’s feeling lucky?
 
I like Warren and for the most part his analysis is very good, BUT he is consistently over-optimistic with his production expectations. He plans for 2 million units produced in 2022 to get his valuations, and I feel that's just too high. I think it will be more like 1.5-1.6 million units in 2022, so his 4X prediction is equally a bit over aggressive IMHO.

The difference between your estimate and Warren’s is best thought of as the interval between dates of equal run rate. About 3 months, or, bugger all (not being rude here, “bugger all” is conversational Australian English).
 
It doesn't see the concrete wall but it can see the lane lines. I feel like car is moving toward the columns which scares them into disengaging. It'll be extremely odd if the car decides to cross the solid white line just to hit the column.
It is interesting…Tesla has gone to great pains to render this “mind of the car” view. It is said to offer more confidence in what the car is seeing. But, here’s a great example of where it might be a liability. Because it’s not rendering cement columns, naturally Gali is nervous. Seems to me that the “mind of the car” thing is more of a beta-type viewport. Once Tesla is confident in FSD to do the job as good or better than humans, why use the screen real estate? To use Elon’s own words here, once FSD is at L4 and just works, “you won’t care”.

Now, personally, I think it’s really cool, necessary for this stage of FSD and hope it is an available display option even when I “don’t care” ;)
 
Well IF he is correct, long dated options would be rather profitable.

According to optionsprofitcalculator.com,
a $1,500 strike January 2023 call costing $4,500 would be worth $105,000 if the share price reaches $2,600 at expiration. Of course, if the share price only doubles over the next 18 months, that option would expire worthless.

Who’s feeling lucky?
Well, I bought a 1100c Jan 2023 back in November. Of course, now I wish that I had sold it in January for a nice 2x profit. Unfortunately, now I’m underwater on it, but….who knows.
 
Can you give any examples other than Tesla of sustained 50% annual growth in capital intensive heavy industries?

Would you consider auto-making capital intensive? OK, how about Ford Motor Company?

In 1904 Ford Motor Company produced 1,708 cars which, by 1916, had risen to over 500,000 cars for a compound annual growth rate of over 60% over a 12 year period. Over that same period, $10,000 worth of stock appreciated to $35 million for a compound annual growth rate of 97%. This does not include the $6.6 million in dividends that $10K in stock returned over the same period.

If we remove 1904 and 1905, years in which there was no production growth, the compound annual production growth rate 1906-1916 (1,695 cars to over 500,000 cars) was 77% compounded over the 10 years.

Ironically, in 1916, when Henry Ford announced he was ending payment of the lavish special dividends in order to expand existing factories and build new ones to increase production, shareholders sued to prevent it and retain the profits in the form of shareholder special dividends (in addition to the regular dividends which were not curtailed). Ford lost the lawsuit and was ordered to distribute $19 million additional dollars to shareholders in the form a special dividend. However, Henry Ford, as the largest shareholder, received $11 of the $19 million. He and his sons also threatened to step down (quit) and start their own, competing car company which frightened the shareholders as they could not imagine a Ford Motor Company without Henry Ford.

He followed this up by offering to personally buyout the other more short-sighted shareholders and his offer was sufficient for him to regain control of his company and use the profits to continue expanding.
 
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Tesla bulls like to remind bears that Tesla is not just a car company. But maybe "tech company" is not as accurate as "first-principles disruption company."

New evidence suggests Tesla plans to expand into yet another giant industry that badly needs disrupting.

Just wait until Tesla Mars takes control of the Astroid Belt, re-assembles it into a planet and names it Magrathea, then opens it up for business. :cool:

Talk about disruption...
 
It is interesting…Tesla has gone to great pains to render this “mind of the car” view. It is said to offer more confidence in what the car is seeing. But, here’s a great example of where it might be a liability. Because it’s not rendering cement columns, naturally Gali is nervous. Seems to me that the “mind of the car” thing is more of a beta-type viewport. Once Tesla is confident in FSD to do the job as good or better than humans, why use the screen real estate? To use Elon’s own words here, once FSD is at L4 and just works, “you won’t care”.

Now, personally, I think it’s really cool, necessary for this stage of FSD and hope it is an available display option even when I “don’t care” ;)
Another possibility is the UI doesn’t render everything that’s outside of currently determined drivable surface.
Since the UI clearly rendered a white line, it’s not going to cross it and don’t care what’s beyond the line unless it’s something that could move. If it renders everything it sees that might be too busy and distracting.
 
It doesn't see the concrete wall but it can see the lane lines. I feel like car is moving toward the columns which scares them into disengaging. It'll be extremely odd if the car decides to cross the solid white line just to hit the column.
You don't know that it doesn't see it. Sure it isn't displaying it, but that doesn't mean it doesn't see it. For example Dirty Tesla said that FSD 9 stopped for deer in the street but didn't display them. Elon also mentioned that the mind of Tesla view would get much better with revisions:

 
OK, I am not an accountant but a structural engineer (Delft).
I have seen the fourth picture showing the possibility of the structural batterypack before.
A big plate with holes in it for the 4680 batteries, that will result in quite a bit of extra material and weight.

In my opinion that would be the easy way out, but is not first principle thinking.
I would try to make the exterior of every single battery a bit thicker (as needed) and glue them all together.
This would form a structure that comprises more batteries, is much lighter and will, when a top and bottom layer is glued to them, result in a structure that works more or less like a honeycomb. Only the individual cells are round as opposed to the individual cells of a real honeycomb.
Finite Element Analysis would show which thickness is needed for the exterior of the individual batteries, to make a light structural batterypack with satisfactory strength and stiffness.
 
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