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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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The problem with this is that most, if not all, will think they already missed out on their chance. If I didn't know better I would too.
Just tell them we are going to follow the same thing that bitcoin did but without the final dip that BTC is in now: Big long lull for years, then a first "tiny" spike.... then a lul for a year or 2.... then a HUGE gain. I tried to match up the TSLA and BTC graphs as if they were in the same history of growth:

Once Tesla hits its full stride with Giga/Terafactories, FSD, Energy the sky is the limit!

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I'd agree with all of that. GM has been building battery factories, Ford seemed to believe they could rely on partners. The SK lawsuit re IP theft with LG really threw them for a loop. Ford was clearly relying on SK for initial capacity.

Ford is doing a much much better job getting publicity and I firmly believe part of that publicity effort is internal. GM is dealing with 2 failed partnerships and publicity re nikola and lordstown has been damaging. GM partnering with those 2 is very concerning.


Honestly the problem is, and it's why I never bought any of the COMPETITION IS COMING nonsense, is there's a bunch of things stacked against legacy-- and nobody is doing a good job addressing ALL of them.

You've got:

It's the batteries stupid! There just aren't enough to go around, not from partners, not even for Tesla that is 10+ years ahead of everyone understanding this and working on their own production AND buying all partners will give. This is where GM (and even VW) are doing better than say Ford.

Internal buy-in.... VW has had a lot of well publicized problems here... Toyota though is the poster child for NU UH! insanity, still thinking hydrogen is a thing and their "hybrids are just self charging EVS!" nonsense. Ford DOES seem to be doing well here.

DEALER buy-in... this one seems to be one everybody is bad at- because the dealers make so much $ on service that doesn't exist (or to nearly the same degree) with EVs... that's on top of the extra middle-man costs the dealers add to the whole chain. Even if the COMPANY wants to sell EVs, the dealers really really do not.

Software- VW again famously had issues here... sounds like Ford has had some too.... though in many ways this ties into the next one:

Vertical integration- Relying on 3rd party suppliers for nearly everything means you don't know how to do anything yourself- and probably don't even have the talent to know how to hire your way out of the problem... (see VW thinking if they just throw 10,000 bodies at software that'll fix it- the same fallacy that makes you think 9 women can birth a baby in 1 month)... it also means your specs are gonna suck since you're all buying the same off-the-shelf non-optimized stuff rather than doing any actual engineering.

Legacy sales and costs- A lot of dilemas wrapped up in this... losing your economies of scale on ICE sales as they drop... hurting said sales if you actually make a really compelling EV alternative, especially when you know you're limited in how many you can make due to lack of cells... even things like potentially losing suppliers for ICE cars you still need to build for a while once orders drop below a certain level, when your EV stuff also hasn't ramped enough to make up the difference.



Some legacy is doing relatively well in some areas above-some are doing terribly in nearly all of em.... but nobody's doing well in more than a couple of em, and a few are just inherent to the transition- some won't make it through... some will... and it'll be interesting times in general.
(and I'm sure I've left stuff off the list of issues too)


But I STILL run into folks who think it's as simple as "When Toyota decides to make EVs they'll just buy all the batteries they need and put them into their cars and keep being the sales leader"

As if you can grab some AAs at best buy, throw them in the trunk of an existing Camry, and sell 10 million of em.
 
WSJ loves the Plaid...


Between bouts of awe and car sickness—Sharp Curves Next 22 Miles—the Plaid sometimes had a melancholic effect on me. Man, nothing will ever feel fast again. Every piston-powered brag must now come with an asterisk; every Cars and Coffee, a sacrament of denial.

To anyone still grumbling about body-panel gaps, please. Our car was built like a nuclear sub, and sounded a bit like one too, with a bathyspheric quiet provided by acoustic glass in all the windows. Honestly, all you hear is tire noise
 
Saw my first Model S Plaid in the wild last night while at dinner with the wifey....Gorgeous MSM that i swore said to me "This too can be yours if you sell 200 shares of $TSLA tomorrow....." 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣
That's just crazy talk. o_O

Who would want to subject themselves to the tormenting regret of realizing how much that chair sale, therefore the Plaid, would cost over time?

Do you really want to be driving a million dollar Model S Plaid? ;)

Instead, use margin to buy it. 😏
 
That's just crazy talk. o_O

Who would want to subject themselves to the tormenting regret of realizing how much that chair sale, therefore the Plaid, would cost over time?

Do you really want to be driving a million dollar Model S Plaid? ;)

Instead, use margin to buy it. 😏
What's even crazier is that if you actually believed it and actually sold some chairs to fund it .... :)
 
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I'd agree with all of that. GM has been building battery factories, Ford seemed to believe they could rely on partners. The SK lawsuit re IP theft with LG really threw them for a loop. Ford was clearly relying on SK for initial capacity.

Ford is doing a much much better job getting publicity and I firmly believe part of that publicity effort is internal. GM is dealing with 2 failed partnerships and publicity re nikola and lordstown has been damaging. GM partnering with those 2 is very concerning.
I think the only logical conclusions are that either GM supplies Ford with batteries or Ford and GM merge.

Can’t wait to see the commercials
 
Vertical integration- Relying on 3rd party suppliers for nearly everything means you don't know how to do anything yourself- and probably don't even have the talent to know how to hire your way out of the problem... (see VW thinking if they just throw 10,000 bodies at software that'll fix it- the same fallacy that makes you think 9 women can birth a baby in 1 month)... it also means your specs are gonna suck since you're all buying the same off-the-shelf non-optimized stuff rather than doing any actual engineering.

Legacy sales and costs- A lot of dilemas wrapped up in this... losing your economies of scale on ICE sales as they drop... hurting said sales if you actually make a really compelling EV alternative, especially when you know you're limited in how many you can make due to lack of cells... even things like potentially losing suppliers for ICE cars you still need to build for a while once orders drop below a certain level, when your EV stuff also hasn't ramped enough to make up the difference.

Shared suppliers are a threat. They also rely on economies of scale. Replacement parts for used cars might be ok for a while, but every decrease in volume increases costs, messes with amortization, removes need for R&D, new products etc. Variety of spare parts will suffer

Perhaps Bosch / fuel injection or transmission manufacturers might be early casualties. I've long though that many hybrids will be electric final drive, with engine not connected directly to wheels and instead acting as a range extender. In any case, hybrid transmissions must be quite different from pure ICE with a short time to recover development costs as hybrids fade away.
 
That's just crazy talk. o_O

Who would want to subject themselves to the tormenting regret of realizing how much that chair sale, therefore the Plaid, would cost over time?

Do you really want to be driving a million dollar Model S Plaid? ;)

Instead, use margin to buy it. 😏
Just for the record....I do not even own a car currently...after selling my Model S late last year. I've been going back and forth on purchasing a new Tesla and keep constantly reminding myself that my CT will be here soon :(
 
Saw my first Model S Plaid in the wild last night while at dinner with the wifey....Gorgeous MSM that i swore said to me "This too can be yours if you sell 200 shares of $TSLA tomorrow....." 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣
Or perhaps only about 50-75 shares if you financed it instead at the rate Tesla is offering approaching 2% with minimum down while TSLA share price quadruples and more during the term of your loan...................at least that’s my plan for the Plaid I ordered. It worked even more favorably for our Model X. We bought that new in 2017 for $117,000 and it cost us about $10,000 in TSLA stock purchases. It also helped us create a lot more Tesla fans around the Columbia River Basin.

I can’t deny I’m trying to make this decision harder on you @BlackS . You really really want that Plaid and it would look great on you! 😁

BTW, yesterday I convinced a neighbor to buy a Model Y instead of a hybrid SUV (not too difficult with some of the more recent data on hybrid emissions) and I think I will have convinced a friend in Boise to do the same by the end of the week because it pairs so perfectly with his new rooftop solar system. And we are helping my brother and his family get a Model 3 now that they have a new solar system. And that is just the most recent influences. It would be fun to know how many Teslas and solar projects have been sold with the help of TMC members over the years. TSLA is still several Gigafactories short of needing anything more than word of mouth advertising IMO. In fact one of the greatest difficulties I have is helping people understand why they have to wait a few weeks or months to get one.
 
Or perhaps only about 50-75 shares if you financed it instead at the rate Tesla is offering approaching 2% with minimum down while TSLA share price quadruples and more during the term of your loan...................at least that’s my plan for the Plaid I ordered. It worked even more favorably for our Model X. We bought that new in 2017 for $117,000 and it cost us about $10,000 in TSLA stock purchases. It also helped us create a lot more Tesla fans around the Columbia River Basin.

I can’t deny I’m trying to make this decision harder on you @BlackS . You really really want that Plaid and it would look great on you! 😁

BTW, yesterday I convinced a neighbor to buy a Model Y instead of a hybrid SUV (not too difficult with some of the more recent data on hybrid emissions) and I think I will have convinced a friend in Boise to do the same by the end of the week because it pairs so perfectly with his new rooftop solar system. And we are helping my brother and his family get a Model 3 now that they have a new solar system. And that is just the most recent influences. It would be fun to know how many Teslas and solar projects have been sold with the help of TMC members over the years. TSLA is still several Gigafactories short of needing anything more than word of mouth advertising IMO. In fact one of the greatest difficulties I have is helping people understand why they have to wait a few weeks or months to get one.
Thanks for making it harder...LOL! In all honesty....the $$ isn't really the issue....i think its just my stubbornness to keep $$ on hand in the event $TSLA makes another 20% drop to not have to shake more couches to buy more shares. We've built up a pretty good cash reserve and ill be ready after earnings if for some reason the manipulators decide to push it down $100+.