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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Yep Ford is moving faster than any other legacy and you know, 5 years ago I would not have guessed that. It's really quite impressive, the Ford family must have really gotten behind this change. Good for Ford!

Ford doesn't deserve kudos when all they are doing is fighting for their survival. They are selling as many gas vehicles as they possibly can while scrambling to learn how to make EV's without selling so many they go bankrupt. They are not sure how this all plays out but they are taking the only path that might preserve them as a going concern into the 2030's. They would not be in this predicament were it not for Tesla so the kudos go to those innovating and forcing the change, Tesla. Ford is just hanging on for dear life.
 
The most reliable indicator of a near-term TSLA share price pop for us over the years has been a call from our broker prior to TSLA earnings in which the conversation eventually comes around to a recommendation that we diversify more instead of hold such a high percentage of TSLA. Over the years I have connected the dots and come to believe that those calls happen when Big Money is looking for more TSLA shares in the short term. FYI we got that same call yesterday, with only a single digit number of trading days till the Q2 earnings call. The Big Shorts could be hurting. With all that has been posted by @The Accountant and James Stephenson regarding this upcoming event, we were not at all surprised. In fact we were actually a bit disappointed as our couch is empty at the moment
Anyone else think broker phone calls like this ("you should sell TSLA to diversify") contributed to today's sell-off?
 

TLDR; Electrek says Tesla is leading a 95% increase in EV sales in the US so far

"The top 10 best-selling EVs in the US from January to April 2021, according to registration data:

  1. Tesla Model Y: 53,102

  2. Tesla Model 3: 35,468

  3. Chevrolet Bolt EV: 13,611
  4. Ford Mustang Mach-E: 6,104
  5. Nissan Leaf: 5,023
  6. Audi e-tron: 4,321
  7. Porsche Taycan: 3,002
  8. Hyundai Kona: 2,192
  9. Tesla Model X: 1,730
  10. Tesla Model S: 1,633"



I just went back and did the math. The Model 3 outsold all other non-Tesla EV's below it.

Then the Model Y came along and said "hold my beer", and sold 1.5X Model 3!

You would think I Musk be kidding; but it is true!
 
Now imagine what happens if we get a $7500-$10k EV credit.
Actually that’s what I am waiting on….I’d like to time it so that my order is placed as soon as possible after the credit becomes inevitable, so that I am not 1 year in line….but I am struggling identifying exactly when that is!
 
Anyone else think broker phone calls like this ("you should sell TSLA to diversify") contributed to today's sell-off?
Short answer is "no". Not too many TSLA investors are fooled by this kind of call. With small volume the MMs and Hedge Funds push the stock down. You'll notice that the two highest volume spikes today pushed the stock up.
 
The popular market averages closed narrowly mixed today. However, EV makers were pummeled down. TSLA not as badly as the other pure plays. This despite a big drop in US treasury yields. Even GM & F fared poorly. Apparently one or more entities were rotating out of the sector. Let's see if this continues or gets unwound tomorrow. I suspect the latter is more likely.

-8.18% CCIV
-7.66% RIDE
-4.25% NIO
-2.94% NKLA
-2.27% TSLA
-1.24% GM
-1.18% F
 
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Actually that’s what I am waiting on….I’d like to time it so that my order is placed as soon as possible after the credit becomes inevitable, so that I am not 1 year in line….but I am struggling identifying exactly when that is!
Just order now. You can delay delivery for up to a year. You also lock in purchase price. All for $100...
 
Another excellent video from The Limiting Factor, giving an overview of the Berlin battery cell production building and the likely timelines:


At the end he questions whether the Austin north west corner section rumoured to be for battery cells is correct. Based on my review of the Berlin plans and watching the foundations for Austin, I would say that the north west corner of Austin is definitely for battery cell production.

Bump - this video really is informative - also shows how Kato's 4680 cells, packs and drive units will go to Berlin until no longer needed there -around Spring 22 according to latest estimates. How 2170 and 4680 battery packs might be made interchangeable .. thanks to the plans Tesla gave to the German authorities (via Tobias Lindh) TLF shows how the puzzle is being solved, see Timeline for construction and installation activity at Giga Berlin

1626294799451.png


TLF's analysis of battery tech is the best I've seen on YouTube, and this video is also information packed/ organized.

*Timeline*
00:00 Introduction
00:50 Construction Application
01:16 Map of Buildings
02:30 The Cell Factory Building
05:09 Cell Production Process Wording
06:46 Flowsheet
09:10 Timeline
12:34 A Few Words on Austin
13:25 Summary
 
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Thank you.
Can you share your thought on this point/question I had
"Also, what's the implication of bringing the SP towards mid-BB, are you saying, they will not try to go below mid-BB because that can bring in buyers?"

MMs/hedgies set goal posts at the obvious levels and program their stinkboxes to do the dirty work. Then they move the goal posts.
 
Can't believe my order to pick up some Jan 2022 1000C hit.

We have so much to look forward to with 2 factories coming online.

Not sure I follow. It'll be July 2022 before those 2 new factories start hitting the bottom line in a positive way. Then a growing tsunami of $$ as they grow prod. over the following 2+ yrs.

And then the Model 2.
 
MMs/hedgies set goal posts at the obvious levels and program their stinkboxes to do the dirty work. Then they move the goal posts.
Max pain is $657.50 for 7/23. It will be interesting to see what it is come Monday morning. I'm watching it closely as I'm planning on selling come calls for expiry 7/23.
 
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Reactions: FireMedic
For folks wanting to understand the chip industry a bit better (and yes, this is a huge issue for Tesla currently and going forward), this blog goes into some really great detail around TSMC and Intel (remember, Intel is the current CPU for Model 3/Y; not sure about refresh S/X and I realize they are using AMD GPUs and Tesla AP ASIC). I hope to see a teardown from Sandy on the various boards to understand Tesla's dependency on the various chip suppliers.
 
Max pain is $657.50 for 7/23. It will be interesting to see what it is come Monday morning. I'm watching it closely as I'm planning on selling come calls for expiry 7/23.

I was just taking a look at the 1/21/2022 calls on maximum-pain.com and saw something odd that maybe someone can help explain to me. What are these 77k put options at strike price of $1 (???) on this chart?

1626296653698.png
 
Not sure I follow. It'll be July 2022 before those 2 new factories start hitting the bottom line in a positive way. Then a growing tsunami of $$ as they grow prod. over the following 2+ yrs.

And then the Model 2.

Yes, I agree. I am hoping the SP will capture some of the excitement and positive news over the quarters leading up to those bottom line increases / numbers, and hoping to see a bump in these calls for some short to medium term fun / profits. Also, though I may not hold these until then, the Q4 numbers should kick some serious Gass too.

You could say that I am optimistic / hopeful that more and more people will start seeing through the FUD, in the time leading up to the itchslapping that's coming . (Fingers crossed).

And yes, Model 2. Can't wait for that announcement!
 
Max pain is $657.50 for 7/23. It will be interesting to see what it is come Monday morning. I'm watching it closely as I'm planning on selling come calls for expiry 7/23.

I'll NOT be selling some calls again for next week's Options expiry. Instead, I'll sit comfortably, now in my 4th year w. 100% in TSLA equity and a 108% CAGR.

MM's == Dancing w. the Devil (but hey! that's just me). But GLTA!

HODL means "buy right and hold tight".

Cheers!
 
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Actually that’s what I am waiting on….I’d like to time it so that my order is placed as soon as possible after the credit becomes inevitable, so that I am not 1 year in line….but I am struggling identifying exactly when that is!
You can place an order now and when they start to contact you for completing the paperwork, ask them to put your order on hold. I ordered a Y in May and told them I didn't want to take delivery until Q3 (hoping the Tax Credit was restored or would become clear by then). My order shows it is on hold until end of August. I don't know what kind of priority they'll give me when I remove the hold, but it can't be worse than ordering from scratch at that time.

On my Manage screen:

Delivery on hold​

Your delivery is on hold until August 31, 2021. If your circumstances have changed and you’re now ready to take delivery, tap “I’m Ready” and complete your pre-delivery tasks to prioritize your order. You will then be notified when the next Model Y with your configuration is available.