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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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How can you not love Elon:

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... I put my money where I see the best risk/reward ratios. And I manage risk by not putting all my investable assets in the one investment that I judge to have the highest reward/risk ratio.
I do that also. For that reason TSLA is my largest single equity investment. For that reason I will not sell unless 'first principles' cede to expediency.
 
Didn't curt said after breaking the 200ma and went higher it was the beginning of a new Elliot wave? Perhaps Monday was the peak of wave 1 and now we are in wave 2. Guess we will see if Wave 2 find support higher than the start of wave 1 or else false alarm.

 
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Ridiculously, it wasn't even 27 hours straight.

They stopped to charge twice along the way: Ford Mustang Mach-E sets Guinness World Record for EV efficiency



So the distance they drove was somewhat arbitrary, and probably designed to mislead folks into thinking they did 840 miles without charging.
Hmmm. An extreme hypermiling 2013 Nissan Leaf owner got 188mi, but didn’t bother to pay for the Guinness. Nobody drives like this in a normal situation. So, owners what range are you getting ? - Page 85 - My Nissan Leaf Forum
The car showed 15.4mph for average speed. Maybe it counts total time and not just driving time. Some more stats from my drive:
7:30AM Start/70F/no wind/flat streets/no elevation change
100% charge dash/97.2% SoC App/21.8 kW h usable/272 'Gids (Sim)/96.9%
6 TBs Start/87F Ave. BTs/7 TBs/95F early PM
AH 62.3/CAP 94%
4.1V / 19mV diff.
10:53 Elasped Time/7:11 PM End Trip/89F/7 TBs
188.2 miles/Turtle 8 'Gids
LBW 18% dash/142 miles/29 DTE/2 bars
VLBW 8% dash/164.4 miles/1 bar/---@11 miles/--@6% SoC dash
 
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"A very small number" = every single Mach-e that has attempted to drive down Eagle Road to the popular tourist spot at the bottom had to be towed back out.

It also sounds like Ford is claiming their OTA update system cannot update this problem OTA until a planned software upgrade this fall. So Ford's OTA update system is still not functional.

Yeah, and that '12v bty discharge' problem doesn't seem plausible, either. If that was all that was wrong, then just boost the battery and the car should restart again.

I think it's much more likely that the high regen power on the extended downhill tripped some thermal limit in the BMS, and it is refusing to restart until the error code is cleared by a technician.

Which should be done in the presence of an amply supply of water...
 
Unless the limitation is at the cell level. That's why the 800V Porsche doesn't charge twice as fast.

Only if voltage drop in cables was the limiting factor (W=I^2×R) or they changed chemistry (allowable C rate)
Otherwise, just putting the same cells in series instead of parallel (more volts, less amps, same kWh) does not increase charge rate.

I think it's been theorized (based on the voltage specified on the pack label), that the new Plaid pack is actually something like 106S (rather than 96S), I had assumed that implied more overall cells, nut a reduction of the number of parallel cells in a group... which would lead to an overall greater capacity pack.

Do we know if that's the case or not?
 
Didn't curt said after breaking the 200ma and went higher it was the beginning of a new Elliot wave? Perhaps Monday was the peak of wave 1 and now we are in wave 2. Guess we will see if Wave 2 find support higher than the start of wave 1 or else false alarm.

TSLA is back to riding the rising 200-day SMA (simple moving average). That SMA is currently at $636.06. The TSLA low so far today was at $637.88 and it is now trending above. So it appears that the SMA remains supportive. Regarding a major Elliott Wave #1, we've not yet seen enough to prove its existence or to consider the possibility of a corrective Wave #2. TSLA may have been revving up for two months to create Wave #1 , but a bigger spike upward is needed to prove its reality.
 
I've been absent here since ~Jan. Wife has been periodically day and swing trading from 2.5 - 10% (not happy when it's 10%!) of our holdings "out" at any given time in my Fidelity Roth IRA [1] with "IRA margin" (not a loan but you can buy/sell as much as you want intraday). She can also trade pre- and post-market. I told her to learn how to just sell covered calls like Gary Black and many others do, instead, but she is still closed-minded to the concept. She used to play high limit Texas Hold'em with Phil Hellmuth and many others at Bay 101 in San Jose, and WSOP 25+ years ago before our son was born, so perhaps she prefers the "excitement" of the trade?

Originally, on my own I had "Roadster II iff $TSLA > $600 for 1+ years at time of order" in my signature here. Today, I just negotiated the following deal with her:

Roadster II iff $TSLA rollercoaster > $800 for 1+ years and > $1.1K for 2+ weeks in last 4 months when available (she approves! 😍)

Anyone care to take a wild-butt guess when I might be able to order my Roadster II? [2]

[1]
Fidelity Active Trader Pro running on 75" 4K and 65" 4K monitors mounted on our master bedroom walls overlooking the Fremont Factory. Yes, it's weird! She wakes up at 4 am M-F. She's really into it. I told her she's riding on a rollercoaster blindfolded so she cannot see if the track will go up or down next. Right now, she has a very small percentage "out" due to upcoming earnings. She still hasn't forgiven Elon and [3] for "investing" in $BTC.

[2] Yes. It is a dumb investment with rapid depreciation. I'll get a 7-year loan, could easily afford payments today, house paid off, etc. For me, it is just experiential, not for being flashy or anything dumb like that. When we married 37 years ago, I drove a 1983 Mercedes 380sl roadster (still have it). Also drove a CLK 550 convertible during my "mid-life crisis" so it's for fun and I believe in YOLO.

There is one road trip advantage to a Roadster II. You can self-park it in front of any hotel or venue with valet parking that has the space, just walk in the front door, and the valets don't get the keys. (I had a Benz SUV power steering assembly broken by a moron in a tight-turn parking garage at a Beverly Hills hotel. Another time, I caught a valet kid joy riding in my Model X P90D.)

[3] "Master of Coin": :rolleyes:
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Lol, my only green today.

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Up to $4.60 now. Super excited to watch these go back to $6.50 tomorrow, not sell, and expire worthless after I wait too long.

I think the move is to sell these mid-day tomorrow at $6.50, then roll into slightly longer calls. You know the MM's aren't letting any rational price action happen the week of earnings, but good numbers should push us higher a week or two after.
 
I think it's been theorized (based on the voltage specified on the pack label), that the new Plaid pack is actually something like 106S (rather than 96S), I had assumed that implied more overall cells, nut a reduction of the number of parallel cells in a group... which would lead to an overall greater capacity pack.

Do we know if that's the case or not?
The information we have says that the new Plaid pack has a few less kWhs of energy storage and that it is 110S. So that pretty much means that it has fewer cells.
 
Only a few here bought on the downhill today (it appears). The FUD is getting to people... that's when I buy more.
Maybe it was risky (death cross), but I didn't hear any (real) negative on Tesla, only GM's fire status and the upgrades with potential for Aviation in the future. All bullish.

Bought some Jan 22c at $800 and $1000 that are sitting about flat right now. Plan to sell going into earnings if we see a run-up, else I will hold these until Q3.
 
... and there's the Middle-BB (like I said, MMs care about Friday's Close)

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So, MA(200) again tomorrow? It's just 20 moo bucks :p

Cheers!

The sale keeps happening. It's like boxing day!

Missed tagging the MA(200) "200-day Moving Average" by just over a buck:

sc.TSLA.10-DayChart.2021-07-15.14-15.png


TSLA has strong support at the MA(200). It has only traded below that level for the entire session twice in the past 11 weeks.

FOMO will likely kick in soon with ~7 trading sessions before the Earnings Call. GLTA!

Cheers!
 
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Only a few here bought on the downhill today (it appears). The FUD is getting to people... that's when I buy more.
Maybe it was risky (death cross), but I didn't hear any (real) negative on Tesla, only GM's fire status and the upgrades with potential for Aviation in the future. All bullish.
It’s not getting to me and I didn’t buy because nobody claimed a demand problem today.

Plus, I really don’t need anymore shares. It’d be like buying another pair of shoes when I already had hundreds of pairs for just two feet. Even if I wore a pair on my hands, I’d have a crap bunch of shoes sitting around doing nothing.
 
But isn't this everyone's plan before earnings? Who's buying right before earnings? (Oh).

In family news, my wife just now bought her first 3 chairs of TSLA. She wanted 10 and I recommended she spread them out a bit. (Thurs/Fri/Mon)
dumb question.... what is a "chair"? I've seen it referenced multiple times... is a series of short-term calls?