Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Knightshade]

In a perfect world Tesla buys/absorbs Starlink, rather than it having an IPO. Elon keeps promise to favor Tesla shareholders, who rejoice in HODL ecstasy!

A Starlink receiver is designed for Tesla cars, becomes standard on new, easy retrofit on old, and Starlink becomes the default connection for all OTA updates on cars so equipped, reducing some current connectivity costs.

Starlink remains a terrible solution for a car you plan to sell many millions a year of that will often be driving in dense urban areas, parking in places with no line of sight to sky, etc..

That's apart from the antenna being too big, sucking a ton more power than cell, and the other drawbacks.

Starlink is a AWESOME solution for non-dense rural areas where internet choice is terrible. Likewise for relatively small numbers of large transport units that tend to always be outside/remotely located (cruise ships, aircraft, RVs etc)

Elon himself has said Starlink makes no sense for the cars multiple times.

Why do people not believe him?

 

[nativewolf]

Starlink remains a terrible solution for a car you plan to sell many millions a year of that will often be driving in dense urban areas, parking in places with no line of sight to sky, etc..

That's apart from the antenna being too big, sucking a ton more power than cell, and the other drawbacks.

Starlink is a AWESOME solution for non-dense rural areas where internet choice is terrible. Likewise for relatively small numbers of large transport units that tend to always be outside/remotely located (cruise ships, aircraft, RVs etc)

Elon himself has said Starlink makes no sense for the cars multiple times.

Why do people not believe him?

Ok you are right but the funny reply would be FSD

 

[ammulder]

Yeah, always have to stay vigilant on the road. Good that everyone is safe!

Still curious - manual braking or on AP/AEB?

Manual, FWIW. AP was not engaged, and if AEB or any other safety features kicked in, the driver was not aware of it. (Though, the whole event was a massive enough shock that some things may have gone unnoticed.)

 

[elasalle]

I don’t think there’s any chance Tesla buys starlink. Elon wants to extract maximum value from that via an IPO to fund SpaceX Mars effort.

The boring company is a different story entirely - would make a lot of sense for Tesla to buy that.

Here is how I see it .. (and could hack into EM's brains via neuralink)

Steps:
1.Have Shareholder vote for Tesla to acquire X% of Starlink on IPO ($2B sounds reasonable with 20B war chest and after spending same amount for BTC )
2.Tesla purchases X% of Starlink on IPO or in some pre IPO deal
3. Provide purchased Starlink shares as divident to existing Tesla shareholders.

Pros:
..Approved by TSLA shareholders, -- no Rive brothers in Starlink
.All TSLA shareholders get Starlink shares. (+no long term holders crap)
.Dividend -- and watch TSLA SP do another short squeeze on the infinity/manufactured/thin-air shares

Reason. All TSLA cars will have remote/portable Starlink terminals. Tesla/Starlink starts harvesting the premium internet revenue with exponentially growing number of cars all around the world.

 

[Brunel]

Why do you assume the margins are 90% for premium connectivity? I am thinking the margins are almost nothing as Tesla needs to pay att for the cellular service with the money collected since Tesla owns about 0% of that infrastructure.

As someone who has sold wholesale connectivity to MVNOs and had colleagues who have dealt with Tesla on B2B level I think Tesla will have very, very attractive data rates; they negotiate continent wide deals; they have sunk costs in terms of having to have their own upload and download when not on wifi meaning users paying for connectivity will be high margin and excellent annuity income. Data is cheap, but gaming and video streaming may have notable dilution on that margin per user.

 

[goinfraftw]

As someone who has sold wholesale connectivity to MVNOs and had colleagues who have dealt with Tesla on B2B level I think Tesla will have very, very attractive data rates; they negotiate continent wide deals; they have sunk costs in terms of having to have their own upload and download when not on wifi meaning users paying for connectivity will be high margin and excellent annuity income. Data is cheap, but gaming and video streaming may have notable dilution on that margin per user.

As an aside, I'd be surprised if Starlink doesn't acquire or significantly partner with Twilio at some point.

 

[jhm]

4 years of priced in TSLA growth puts our PE at what.....20? Less?

In what world do you average 65% growth and sit with a 20 pe ratio?

This leg up is a certainty, its just how long it can be held off. As we've seen in the past, the longer they coil the spring....

Even if 20 PE were to stay fixed, this would be an awesome thing for shareholders. As the company grows EPS 65%, the share price would also gain 65%. Sign me up.

 

[Mengy]

I don't see Tesla investing into Starlink at all. Why would they?

Now Tesla merging with Boring makes much more sense. My gut tells me Elon would rather keep Boring private though, gives them more control without being beholden to anyone.

 

[Drezil]

I had no idea starlink could do so well in Germany.

It will.
Having fiber is the exception.
Fastest is Internet over Cable (in some places .. you need cable in your area).

Otherwise you get offer from Telekom that they can give you 250mbit (in certain metropolitain areas) for 40 bucks/month.. If you dont live in a city, then 64mbit is still quite good (for the same price of course... -.-).
If you live rural .. well.. they just stopped serving dual-channel-ISDN (2x 64kbit) due to digitalisation .. but you can choose Internet via LTE! If the weather is good! ....

I am one of the lucky who get 400mbit over cable for a decent price (50 bucks/month) - but i still consider ordering starlink to also have a decent connection if i am on vacation or visiting my parents. They only have 16mbit or so .. and they live in a commercial area. Near the box on the street. The other companies(!) down the road have it worse.

You can watch

to get an impression (auto-translated subtitles should be ok .. otherwise all you need to know is visible on the screen... Carrying harddrives via horse for some hours is STILL FASTER than transferring the data via internet...)

But hey! We have decent streets to drive on ...

 

[The Accountant]

Words of a perma-bear who posted today about giving up the short bet.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1415419070996942858

Well, if @Claire Musk has had a small short position in Tesla, I say "Get a Life".
They set up a new special account in January dedicated to Tesla and tweet and retweet up to 20 times a day and only with a small short position in the past.
This individual is full of BS or unstable or both.

 

[BornToFly]

I really want to see another stock split/dividend this summer to make the naked short sellers pay....

 

[elasalle]

Watching TSLA stock get kicked a

I don't see Tesla investing into Starlink at all. Why would they?

Now Tesla merging with Boring makes much more sense. My gut tells me Elon would rather keep Boring private though, gives them more control without being beholden to anyone.

Same playbook.

Buy %X of Starlink, give dividends.
Couple of years later, Shorts again act funny, IPO Boring, purchase %X , with dividends back to TSLA shareholders

 

[UkNorthampton]

Well.. they have to pay for data.. and the rates in Germany are abysmal.. i.e. Telekom offers mobile flat for 90€/Month.
I pay 20€/month for 10GB.. if you use Netflix or YouTube often they are gone FAST.
Also the use it to pull data off the car (think autopilot edge-cases).

So in Germany this is a net negative.

My wife is from Poland. There you get a mobile flat for ~20PLN (~5€).

Mobile in Germany is complete bonkers. You are happy when you get enough coverage that your calls do not break up when you drive.

Running Gag since years: how do you know you left Germany? Internet reception is suddenly great.

AFAIR the amount Tesla charges is roughly the cost of operating those services for the fleet - similar to the supercharger pricing. They COULD turn it into profit-drivers any time, but for now they won't.

UK Sims seem to be registered to Netherlands. Before Brexit, any data should have been at Netherlands rates (within "acceptable usage" limits).

Do you see Dutch language youtube or web adverts (probably only if you haven't signed in)? Might be that Tesla can shop around EU for best deals & rely (partially) on EU rules. Still, even before Brexit, you could go past limits, we had to fight with our UK provider due to smallprint.

 

[Mengy]

I really want to see another stock split/dividend this summer to make the naked short sellers pay....

That would be glorious.

 

[Criscmt]

I really want to see another stock split/dividend this summer to make the naked short sellers pay....

The post was made after reading TSLA related posts on Twitter? /jk

Seems to be strong speculation on Twitter, including speculation on split announcement dates end of July.

 

[Drezil]

UK Sims seem to be registered to Netherlands. Before Brexit, any data should have been at Netherlands rates (within "acceptable usage" limits).

Do you see Dutch language youtube or web adverts (probably only if you haven't signed in)? Might be that Tesla can shop around EU for best deals & rely (partially) on EU rules. Still, even before Brexit, you could go past limits, we had to fight with our UK provider due to smallprint.

Thas is exactly what they do.

BUT as my wife is from poland i have some insight into cross-border-things..
On her polish SIM she has 10GB of fast internet everywhere in the EU - except germany. You have to pay a higher rate if you want 4g in Germany as well or use all your data here.
Why? Because we privatized the Telekom in the 90ies. And gifted them all copper-cables in the ground with it. And they stopped building new lines & instead invested in tech to sqeeze out the last drops from that copper cable. We now have "Super Vectoring" .. Back in the days you had 1 signal in the cable. With vectoring you have 8 signals with the same frequency, but shifted in phase. With super-vectoring you now have 56(?) signal on the same wire with change in phase & frequency..
And yes. the packet losses are as bad as this idea sounds. But hey! This counts as "broadband-extension" in the new "digital offensive" from the government.. instead of laying real fiber ...

/rant

 

[jhm]

I don't agree with one aspect of this graph. Autos peaked in 2017 and I don't see this level being reached again for quite some time, if at all. Kids these days do not rush out on their 16th birthday to get their drivers license which was the norm before smart phones. Cars have become very expensive and together with ride sharing programs available and upcoming robotaxi, and many cycle/walk to work or take public transit. The car is much less of a status symbol (a right of passage) than it was 20 to 30 years ago. I hope I am right, as doubling global annual vehicle sales from now to 2034 and then increasing another 25% from 2035 to 2040 is not sustainable from a resource perspective, even if they are all BEVs. This is not what the world needs. Less is more. UN projects Global population will increase only 12% from now until 2040 which supports a much lower annual vehicle sales than this 220,000,000 projection. General Motors needs to hire a new consulting agency for future sales estimates.

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You may be overlooking that for every affluent youngster in NA or EU that yawns at PPV ownership, there are thousands of youth in developing countries who would jump at the chance to own any used motor vehicle they could afford. As EVs drive down the cost of vehicle ownership, motorization rates in developing countries will surge.

 

[ZsoZso]

She techincally could be quite the opposite of what she is now. No, she hates T E Sla with everything she has. Is she a human or a program? Really, think about it.
I've not seen a woman who is 100% against humanity, progress and hapiness. No other woman I have seen is so rotten to the bone. It seems like Kolodny just gets out of true hell often, so SeeEnBeeSee can spit her 'articles' out for shorts to have.

Linette Lopez would like to have a word with you !

 

[redan]

Need to find the commentary (paywall link), but BofA (John Murphy) raises TSLA PT from $700 to $750. Hopefully the first of many once earnings are printed:

Tesla (TSLA) PT Raised to $750 at BofA Securities

BofA Securities analyst John Murphy raised the price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to $750.00 (from $700.00) while maintaining a Neutral rating.

www.streetinsider.com

 

[Dan Detweiler]

A question for those that know more than me...in other words, everyone. Are we seeing this predictable and consistent morning dip followed by a slight rise and then steady walk down to close in the red because of low volumes where people don't want to make a move before the earnings report? this is getting really old. With all the good news regarding the company, it gets disheartening to see the seemingly effective use of increasingly skeptical BS and FUD. I know, I know, I should be used to this but it gets so old so fast.

Dan