Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[insaneoctane]

Anyone care to critique this video (the math, not his assumptions)? His base assumption is an average growth of 20%/year till 2030 due to many risk factors like competition/recession/saturation/unrealistic expectations which we on their forum roll our eyes at. However he comes with with a PT of 2337 by 2030 even with these assumptions which is pretty freaken bullish.

Didn’t watch the video, by a Market cap of 2.3T by 2030? No way it takes that long!

 

[Carl Raymond]

As an EV is charged from the grid, more and more renewable energy is added to the grid. Over time, an electric vehicle becomes cleaner and cleaner.

Equally relevant is the flip side of the same coin.

As EVs scale up, the cost of batteries (grid storage) is driven down, making renewables cheaper than fossil fuels. Old style polluting plants become unviable and the 100% renewable grid is inevitable.

EVs are absolutely the silver bullet. If experts don’t agree, they are the wrong experts, trained in looking backwards.

 

[Drezil]

And so it begins. CNBC.com.....

View attachment 688228

One core saying in computer science is: "There is no silver bullet"..
It is a great paper to read

But yes.. of course there won't be a single solution to climate change.. but at least they talk about climate change publicly.

 

[BobbyKings]

Equally relevant is the flip side of the same coin.

As EVs scale up, the cost of batteries (grid storage) is driven down, making renewables cheaper than fossil fuels. Old style polluting plants become unviable and the 100% renewable grid is inevitable.

EVs are absolutely the silver bullet. If experts don’t agree, they are the wrong experts, trained in looking backwards.

EVs are more like a cluster bomb. First of all there is no doubt about being far more climate friendly in all major markets. See this study specifying the effect in in 2021, 2030 for Europe, US, China, and India:

A global comparison of the life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of combustion engine and electric passenger cars - International Council on Clean Transportation

Life-cycle assessment of the greenhouse gas emissions of passenger cars in China, Europe, India, and the United States, which together account for about 70% of new passenger car sales worldwide.

theicct.org

And because of the economics favoring EV over ICE due to increasingly lower Total Cost of Ownership. And that is where the bomb explodes: The demand for refinery products will seriously decrease and the remaining refinery product demand will shft to lower margin products. Currently more than 50% of refinery output goes to (road) transport.

IEA net-zero path signals major changes, challenges for refiners | Insights | Bloomberg Professional Services

The IEA's Net Zero by 2050 scenario sees major challenges ahead for oil refiners, as the rapid drop in demand would push refinery run levels down by 85% from 2020-50.

www.bloomberg.com

So I agree with CNBC. EVs are not a silver bullet. It's a cluster bomb. And Tesla is leading the formation dropping it.

 

[MABMAB]

Not obvious to me.
I want to know batteries.
He already talked difficulty to FSD
Nothing else to learn pertaining to earnings, sales, profits pertaining to DOJO cause it isn't able to affect the bottom line.

Elon teased this button for FSD 9 or whatever a while ago, keeps delaying
DOJO is a tease.

If the call is an hour long, we are halfway through without getting much out of it.
This is what he should do on Joe Rogan while getting drunk in an all day program

I'd like to politely remind (and chastise prior down thumbs) anyone involved in getting questions onto the conference call today to make them pertinent. For an idea of such, consider looking at Gary Blacks twitter from yesterday. Also consider, what kind of new information would add to understanding of TSLA such that bears, professional money managers, and skittish retail would put new money into the company betting on future growth. My continued bet is that dojo has very little to do with this, certainly not such that it is worth 20-30 minutes worth of discussion. Info learned about dojo last call ended up NOT populating the discussions here, not being part of repeated youtube videos from the parasites, and seemingly did not stir up big money interest.

I am not arguing that things happening in the background to improve FSD are not important, but the minutiae details are not. It would be kind of like asking a question about the brake calipers, I am sure the engineers involved (and Elon) could talk about it for a long time, but not material to a conference call. This is for big picture stuff!

We all only have ONE HOUR to get new info. Let's make it good, pertinent. Someone put a shock collar on Elon to have him move on when he gets rambling.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1419292844523655182

Tesla Q2 2021 Earnings Q&A

Say Shareholder Q&A for the Q2 2021 Earnings held on Jul 26, 2021 GMT. Shareholders ask questions and company leadership answers them!

app.saytechnologies.com

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

As an internal combustion engine ages, the piston rings, pistons, bearings, valves, valve guides, gaskets and seals wear. Over time it will pollute more and more. Hence the phrase, “Smokey Old Car.”



As an EV is charged from the grid, more and more renewable energy is added to the grid. Over time, an electric vehicle becomes cleaner and cleaner.

The largest contributor to the carbon footprint of EV production is the battery production. The dry electrode process will greatly reduce the carbon footprint of battery production. Not sure if this will make EV production greener than ICE but it will certainly make the crossover point in the lifetime footprint occur much earlier in the vehicle lifetime, making the 'green' argument for EVs much stronger.

 

[Unpilot]

Pre-market looks good. But still low volume.
I think the real action starts tomorrow.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

I guess they didn't like that Rob always had a couple of the top questions. I wouldn't be surprised if he still does, as his question are actually well thought out and good. While most of the questions are just pure garbage. (They seem to have gone down hill now that there are people with only a very small fraction of a share can post questions. Some of which sound like they could be from TSLAQ people.)

Just from the current numbers where number #5 only has about 10% less votes than #1 it's clear it seems to have worked if that was the intent.

From memory there used to be a much bigger difference at the top.

Seems to me that two of those top five sounds like Robs but in previous quarters his were much further ahead so not promoting them seems to make a difference. Not sure if it's for the better overall but previously it was close to impossible for an unknown to get a question asked.

 

[Buckminster]

 

[lascavarian]

Dan Ives now on CNBC.

Saying this week will be a Goldilocks week for tech. Buy ahead of earnings.

Massive momentum for Tesla.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Not sure if this has been mentioned already, however there is some discussion on twitter around GF1 output. With the summary being:

• All GF1 lines currently running as vehicle cells (none as energy)
• GF1 staff have high levels of forced overtime
• Pana can't fit any new lines into the existing GF1 footprint
• Additional cells being imported from LG in China for Fremont use

The comments are coming from Carsonight and Bill Wright, who I would class as mostly right but have made mistakes in the past.

The comments imply that Tesla is increasing overall vehicle cell usage of 2170s in the US. Presumably via 3/Y out of Fremont (with a limited chance of Austin or Semi trial production) - If so, perhaps we should be expecting a reasonable production vol increase out of Fremont in Q3. Will be interesting to see if the rumours get confirmed elsewhere.

The other option for forced overtime would be a labour shortage and no increased cell production, but that doesn't seem to fit with the rest of the tweets.

some relevant tweets below:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1419511130347556866

https://twitter.com/x/status/1419528812933435393

https://twitter.com/x/status/1419336499334586368

https://twitter.com/x/status/1418968435363549188

 

[redan]

Today's WSJ:

Tesla Poised for Record Earnings as It Navigates Global Chip Shortage

Tesla Inc. TSLA -0.91% is expected to report a record quarterly profit, largely evading the effects of a global chip shortage that has constricted the global auto industry.

The Silicon Valley electric-car maker produced more than 206,000 vehicles in the second quarter, more than doubling its year-earlier output. Global auto sales have cooled somewhat amid a shortfall of semiconductors. Many auto makers, including Ford Motor Co. F -0.65% and General Motors Co. , have been forced to idle assembly plants over supply constraints, squeezing vehicle inventories and pushing up prices.

Wall Street expects Tesla’s vehicle-delivery growth to help drive second-quarter revenue to roughly $11.4 billion, up from $6 billion a year earlier, according to analysts surveyed by FactSet. Net income, when the company posts results after the bell Monday, is forecast to reach about $600 million, nearly six times the year-earlier profit.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I get the impression that tesla kinda screwed up a bit with the location for the nevada gigafactory. Its sounds like it just has labor shortage issues. Perhaps they thought that the process could be more automated than it is?

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I feel like you're very misinformed here

- Why would the Model Y need to sell like the Corolla when Tesla has the upcoming Model 2?

How on earth is a theoretical 'model 2' *upcoming*. There has been zero confirmation that tesla is even designing such a car. And even if they suddenly showed one off tonight, I'd expect to wait until 2024-2025 to get one, because we are STILL waiting for
roadster
semi
cybertruck
And thats without an actual proper global ramp for the 3 and Y. Hardly any sales in Africa/India, and no model Y yet in left-hand-drive countries at all. Plus powerwall backlog is huge, and no 4680s or structural pack yet.

There is tendency among posters here to race way ahead of teslas actual implementation. I would not be surprised to see a traditional automaker come in and take the low end of the marker from tesla unless things speed up a lot.

MAYBE if we see volume production of the semi and cybertruck, and production of the roadster in 2022, then we *might* see a 2023 model 2 but I doubt it. Lets not forget that the roadster was described as the '2020 roadster'.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Good start to the premarket. I see us running up quickly to $750 this week.....exactly where we were BEFORE the mega results from waaay back at 1Q. I guess MMs are just eating tons of naked short shares?

Unclear when the top blows off, but $1200 is logical for after 4Q earnings IMO. If all goes reasonably well of course.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I get the impression that tesla kinda screwed up a bit with the location for the nevada gigafactory. Its sounds like it just has labor shortage issues. Perhaps they thought that the process could be more automated than it is?

I think the strategy has changed as well. Originally they were going to build a 150 GWh capacity factory to supply the US car factories. But i think now the thinking is cell production co-located with car manufacturing. So GF Nevada will remain the satellite of Fremont - they have a pretty straight forward route and logistics is figured out. The rest of the factories will get their own cell production on-site. Where they use suppliers, they are moving close - LG's China plant is a bit like GF for Fremont, but CATL is rumored to build an LFP cell factory very close to Giga Shanghai.

So I don't think they really want to grow GF Nevada (GF1) 2170 production much more. Once Austin comes online, Model Y production will be split between the two (or even move to Austin entirely) and cells will be made locally as well. And then eventually, GF1 may be upgraded to 4680s if they standardize around that.

 

[Unpilot]

Not sure what max pain is this week...but if there ever was a time it wouldn't be in play...this is it.

 

[jw934]

The trend of rising prices for used Tesla continues . . . Now the first post I've seen where a used Tesla has higher price than the original purchase price of the new car.

Yes, Elon is right, Tesla is an appreciating asset.

I expect to see more examples as delivery wait time continues to rise.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1419566003516809221

 

[ZachF]

Since the dawn of time right up til today, even on this board, people keep talking about automobiles as the primary source of Tesla revenue. Around 2025 we should be rounding the corner into the next infinitely bigger S-curve of the Energy business.

That's why TSLA has 10x'd with relative ease and not fallen back. Big money knows that Tesla's about to sit atop the global energy market. No one knows what that will look like, but the very early wagerers have a few coins on Tesla.

My guess is that Tesla in the future will make almost $0 in profit on actual physical sales of cars and battery storage. They will be purposely priced low to entice customers into the Tesla software ecosystem (FSD software and virtual power plant software) where Tesla will make all of it's profit.

 

[JustMe]

How on earth is a theoretical 'model 2' *upcoming*. There has been zero confirmation that tesla is even designing such a car. And even if they suddenly showed one off tonight, I'd expect to wait until 2024-2025 to get one, because we are STILL waiting for
roadster
semi
cybertruck
And thats without an actual proper global ramp for the 3 and Y. Hardly any sales in Africa/India, and no model Y yet in left-hand-drive countries at all. Plus powerwall backlog is huge, and no 4680s or structural pack yet.

There is tendency among posters here to race way ahead of teslas actual implementation. I would not be surprised to see a traditional automaker come in and take the low end of the marker from tesla unless things speed up a lot.

MAYBE if we see volume production of the semi and cybertruck, and production of the roadster in 2022, then we *might* see a 2023 model 2 but I doubt it. Lets not forget that the roadster was described as the '2020 roadster'.

I am sorry to differ with you, sir, but the Ice Killer Alpha has been confirmed by Elon Musk

Tesla's Cheap $25,000 Car Could Cost Just $19,000

Many are buzzing about the possibility of a "cheap" $25,000 Tesla car. What if we can get it for $19,000? A YouTuber explains how.

insideevs.com

Musk's promised $25,000 Tesla EV will be sold globally, China exec confirms

It won't only be for China, or even Europe, according to Tesla China President Tom Zhu.

www.cnet.com

Moreover, Tesla/Elon Musk have repeatedly stated that they aim to increase auto production by an average of 50% per year to reach 20 million cars per year by 2030. That can only be achieved by releasing multiple inexpensive car models - starting in the not too distant future

An affordable BEV is a priority for Tesla’s mission - the Roadster is not.