Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZachF]

From the following video raw materials prices for batteries cells are something like this;- LFP $8 kWh, Nickel $25 kWh

He also predicts pack prices of less than $50 per kWh will not happen before 2025.

Say after 2025 an LFP pack page with a roadrunner 4680 line only costs $50 kWh, and an ultra-compact model only needs a 25 kWh battery.
The pack cost is now, $1,250, at these price points the cost of the pack is probably the same as the cost of a compact ICE drivetrain or less.

So EVs should eventually be able to hit any low end price point ICE can hit. but that doesn't mean Tesla can.

Once we get to this end of the market, there is a question of standards, and preserving brand image, I can't see Tesla ever compromising on safety.
So the ultra-compact car also needs to be safe, and probably be able to support FSD.
The cost of the battery pack is no longer a big issue, but there are plenty of other considerations.

In the 2030s it will be utility-scale solar at $0.50/watt and utility-scale installed LFP storage at <$70/Kwh ($35/KWh pack-level manufacturing cost)

Those prices mean all other forms of electricity generation are obsolete.

Utility-scale solar at 50 cents a watt is an LCOE of <2c per KWh.

Utility-scale LFP storage at <$70KWh with 5000-10000 cycle life is about a penny per KWh cost for storage!

 

[2daMoon]

Okay, who turned off the Nasdaq?

 

[StealthP3D]

Equally relevant is the flip side of the same coin.

As EVs scale up, the cost of batteries (grid storage) is driven down, making renewables cheaper than fossil fuels. Old style polluting plants become unviable and the 100% renewable grid is inevitable.

EVs are absolutely the silver bullet. If experts don’t agree, they are the wrong experts, trained in looking backwards.

"Experts" are always trained in looking backwards. That's why they say so many foolish things. What you want is an expert who is also a visionary.

 

[Unpilot]

"Experts" are always trained in looking backwards. That's why they say so many foolish things. What you want is an expert who is also a visionary.

Those are in short supply.

 

[Krugerrand]

I get the impression that tesla kinda screwed up a bit with the location for the nevada gigafactory. Its sounds like it just has labor shortage issues. Perhaps they thought that the process could be more automated than it is?

It wasn’t a screw up. It was absolutely the best choice for the position Tesla was in at the time and what they planned to do.

 

[Linus_2]

In the 2030s it will be utility-scale solar at $0.50/watt and utility-scale installed LFP storage at <$70/Kwh ($35/KWh pack-level manufacturing cost)

Those prices mean all other forms of electricity generation are obsolete.

Utility-scale solar at 50 cents a watt is an LCOE of <2c per KWh.

Utility-scale LFP storage at <$70KWh with 5000-10000 cycle life is about a penny per KWh cost for storage!

The big question is how do we ramp up storage from today to 2030.
Volume will be huge for Battery and Solar
Will solar panel be the next bottleneck since New annual installations in 2020 will reach 142 gigawatts (GW), a 14% rise over the previous year?

We need the help of an expert to model the tesla energy financial next 5-10 years

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Moreover, Tesla/Elon Musk have repeatedly stated that they aim to increase auto production by an average of 50% per year to reach 20 million cars per year by 2030. That can only be achieved by releasing multiple inexpensive car models - starting in the not too distant future

An affordable BEV is a priority for Tesla’s mission - the Roadster is not.

While I agree a model 2 is a priority the fact is that there has been no factory construction started to house model 2 production.

I doubt there will be any significant production (as in more than say 10k) in 2022 and for this they need to start building in weeks, not months, from now.

From start of clearing of land there is probably 15 months to first deliveries. Possibly 12 if it's at one of the previous GFs and some resources can be shared.

I think we can rule out Austin and Berlin for any start of new production buildings for the next several months at the least. Fremont is full and Nevada lacks workers.

This leaves GF Shanghai or a new site if we want any 2022 production. There was rumblings in Shanghai a few months back about new land being prepared for Tesla but that seems to have been a false start.

Even with model 2 a priority I can't see that we won't have Roadsters, Cybertrucks and Semis delivered before.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Christ i get the feeling that if you post anything here that suggests tesla may have made a mistake, or that maybe bitcoin was not the most awesome move ever, you are treated like the enemy.
Is this the INVESTORS thread, or the fan club? because believe it or not, you make better investment decisions when you can accept when tesla screwed up. Not everything elon does is 4D chess genius.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Tesla wants to go lithium for 12-v.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1419571113076695040

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Christ i get the feeling that if you post anything here that suggests tesla may have made a mistake, or that maybe bitcoin was not the most awesome move ever, you are treated like the enemy.
Is this the INVESTORS thread, or the fan club? because believe it or not, you make better investment decisions when you can accept when tesla screwed up. Not everything elon does is 4D chess genius.

Just because you get some disagrees? It's still informative and thought provoking for you to post negative thoughts about Tesla. Are the mods censoring you?

 

[Prunesquallor]

The trend of rising prices for used Tesla continues . . . Now the first post I've seen where a used Tesla has higher price than the original purchase price of the new car.

Yes, Elon is right, Tesla is an appreciating asset.

I expect to see more examples as delivery wait time continues to rise.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1419566003516809221

So, a prudent investment would be to order a new M3 now, and just sell mine whenever the new one finally is delivered? Money in the bank?

 

[Dancing Lemur]

Christ i get the feeling that if you post anything here that suggests tesla may have made a mistake, or that maybe bitcoin was not the most awesome move ever, you are treated like the enemy.
Is this the INVESTORS thread, or the fan club? because believe it or not, you make better investment decisions when you can accept when tesla screwed up. Not everything elon does is 4D chess genius.

 

[2daMoon]

It wasn’t a screw up. It was absolutely the best choice for the position Tesla was in at the time and what they planned to do.

Even more so a "best choice" for the acquisition is the Austin property. Going forward, Tesla could easily add several new factories for cars, batteries, and other products and have a lot of land left over. (They are clearing and leveling more of that land. Those who think Tesla isn't already working on the next factory might take this under consideration)

Proximity to Austin's workforce and lifestyle makes it much more attractive for employees than the Nevada location.

Proximity to Houston's shipping hub and the Interstate highway system from a centralized location to North America offers huge domestic and export logistic advantages.

Being able to avoid future site selection and planning issues that new locations might bring such as regulatory wrangling by jurisdiction, and having a construction workforce who have already built the first huge factory on that site are significant time savers for growth.

It certainly isn't the end-all, be-all of locations and there will certainly be others built both in the US and world-wide, though, the Texas location is an Ace in the Hole that should continue to allow rapid expansion and lower costs of operation/production in the years to come.

Berlin might have some of these same advantages, if it weren't for the regulatory structure that cripples growth of industry there.

 

[StealthP3D]

We all only have ONE HOUR to get new info. Let's make it good, pertinent. Someone put a shock collar on Elon to have him move on when he gets rambling.

I'm actually in favor of LESS pertinent financial information making it public because there are very good reasons why less awareness of TSLA's strong position furthers the mission more. Sometimes things are not as simple as they appear and there are multiple advantages to having less awareness of just how dominate Tesla's position is (and will become).

The speed of the EV revolution does not depend upon the detail of financial information of the company that is making it happen being made public. Change will occur more rapidly when the primary threat (TSLA) is not viewed as unstoppable or without credible competition. And this race is ALL about change and the speed of change. The share price will follow.

As a side benefit, less awareness of how dominate Tesla really is, and is likely to become, allows for more accumulation of shares at bargain prices. It's in the best interest of Tesla's mission for the valuation of TSLA to not be too heavily based on future assumptions that already include the bull case. This allows a broader ownership base and more people rooting for success as they support Tesla's product offerings in word and in deed.

Sure, we all want the share price to appreciate as much as possible, I get that. But there are very good reasons why patience is considered a virtue and why that is very applicable here. Tesla will ultimately become more successful at creating change if the share price trajectory more closely resembles a steam locomotive rather than an explosion.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Early volume a little lower than I expected. I think fomo is gonna hit real hard at this suppressed SP. Maybe today, maybe 2 weeks.

 

[juanmedina]

Any one is having issue with their trading platform? E-trade is not displaying options prices correctly they are stuck and they don't change.

 

[2daMoon]

Any one is having issue with their trading platform? E-trade is not displaying options prices correctly they are stuck and they don't change.

Nasdaq is having issues with presenting TSLA data this morning. It was 15 minutes into today's trading before I could see any change in SP since Friday. Some data/charts are still not populating. Other symbols appear to be okay.

I'm gonna take this as a good sign.

 

[ZsoZso]

Any one is having issue with their trading platform? E-trade is not displaying options prices correctly they are stuck and they don't change.

Meh, a good HODLer has no need for a trading platform in the foreseeable future

 

[StealthP3D]

It wasn’t a screw up. It was absolutely the best choice for the position Tesla was in at the time and what they planned to do.

Here's a question for the people who think Giga Nevada was a screw-up:

How do you think Tesla would be in such a dominate position in terms of battery supply if they didn't build Giga Nevada when they did?

Batteries don't just materialize out of thin air!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Let's all hope this comes to fruition by the end of the year