Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[BobbyKings]

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That's all folks.

 

[elasalle]

AAPL earnings today, lets see where big tech market leader leads market tomorrow

+ EM took 2 shots on AAPL ... unlikely AAPL announces Car program on earnings .. but could happen

 

[Skryll]

Don't forget that in the USA, Tesla has their own proprietary connector

Of course the simplest solution to this would be to stop with this connector and transition to the CCS plug

Unlikely - millions of teslas on the road and a handful of eTrons and iPace and ID4 and mache with a four times as big plug are not going to force tesla out of the better charging plug. They can use adapters for what’s on the road and add the small socket behind a reflector like tesla does for new cars so they can plug in directly.

 

[gene]

Rob last comment made me add some chairs today.

Me too.

 

[2daMoon]

Let me offer some possible reasons. In no particular order:

It’s too good to be true - we just discussed that often people can’t believe that which is right in front of them.

Dumb. Like low IQ dumb.

Slow to grasp because of the combination of the two items above.

And this is my particular favorite; pirates (and not the good kind).

This matter of why was on my mind as well.

It seems to me quite easy to think of the trading professionals as Lemmings. Because, as a whole, they appear to be looking at so many stocks, hoping to find that right one, and it is easy for signal to be lost in the noise. They are all huddled together on the edge of the cliff (the cliff being a decision, good or bad) and waiting for the herd to move suddenly and push them off by force. Mostly because they aren't in the habit of grokking the bigger picture when all they ever do is glance briefly at slices.

These folks aren't in the habit of digging deep. Plus, "familiarity breeds contempt," and Tesla's story being unchanged, even though it is a fantastic growth story, has become mundane and no longer attracts their attention.

Meanwhile, we HODLers sit back twiddling our thumbs and bantering about what might possibly be going through market participant's minds when everything needed to form a decision is right there.

The Lemmings teeter on the precipice blinded by too much data, an inherent unfamiliarity with exponential growth, and their dream of finding the "next" TSLA, and are unable to see the one before them.

Eventually, all it will take is a nudge and the Lemmings will begin to tumble over the edge, resulting in the upward correction that is so long overdue. In the mean time our only choice is to be patient and HODL waiting for the day of the inevitable to arrive, yet once again.

Go Lemmings!

 

[JusRelax]

Love Rob’s last comment…

In this interview, Rob stated it seemed like Elon was trying to communicate the difficulty of the current environment that the Q2 2021 blowout earnings report resulted from.

I just wanted to take this opportunity to tip my hat to the hard work and ingenuity of the Tesla employees to achieve such greatness this past quarter despite all the difficulties. It truly is appreciated, and their hard work is definitely making a significant impact in accelerating the world towards a renewable future!

 

[Singuy]

Indeed, reduction in expenses is as good as increasing profit. And who doesn't like an extra $100 Million a quarter, $0.10 per share?
Recent interest expense figures (bottom number is Q2)
185
170
169
170
163
246
99
75

Also reduction in debt helps nudge Moody in upgrading Tesla to investment grade.

 

[Zero CO2]

If AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL 2Q results disappoint we could see further buying opportunities this week... even if these firms report great results we could see buying opportunities for TSLA ... especially for those with 10 year horizon

many retail investors think they have missed out on TSLA... I think they could not be more wrong... we are in 10X part 2 to the

 

[Featsbeyond50]

would you rather the money sat in cash, earning little to nothing, or was used to pay down high interest debt taken out years ago at high rates?

seems like a sensible use of some of the capital IMHO, as long as the markets are friendly to any future capital rises or new debt issues at lower rates if later needed.

I'd prefer it if they didn't do the raise. If they don't have a use for the money for the purpose of developing the business, the capital raise signals the markets that the company views the share price as overvalued and cash as a better holding. Paying down low interest debt is only a little better than holding unneeded cash.

 

[pnungesser]

You know what really did disappoint me on that call? Right, "pay down debt". I don't mind a capital raise if I think the funds will be put to good use but when I hear it's getting used to pay down low interest debt, part of me thinks WTF?

Wasn't that low interest.

 

[jbcarioca]

...
Tesla is constantly gaining market share of the automotive market, never mind if it's in the Netherlands or Timbuktu or whether it's share of electrics in narrow local markets fell month over month. The rate of increase in global market share of all vehicles is the metric to watch.
...

Please control your enthusiasm. Tesla does not serve in Timbuktu or any other part of Mali. Mali is almost totally Toyota with a handful of Mercedes Benz tossed in to complete the 428 sales in 2019. Until the get a decent electrical supply Tesla has little ability to gain market share.
Just think about the markets where Tesla is NOT, at all, listed in very rough market size order: India, Brazil, Russia, Thailand, Iran, Turkey, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, Argentina. That is ten of the 25 largest car makers in the world. Tesla Energy is in been fewer.
Wherever Tesla appears (most recently Israel) it suddenly becomes a material player, if there is enough product to deliver.
Obviously sprue market size is not the story. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, Brazil, Iran and Turkey have proportionately significant markets for higher end vehicles, although the vast majority of those markets is fairly basic vehicles. All of the top 25 has a significant market for high end vehicles except Iran, and even Iran has a good sized market inhibited by sanctions.

All of that also ignores that such markets as the US, Canada, China, Germany and everywhere else have limited distribution and too few sales and service outlets, so sales tend to be concentrated around those facilities. Even California and New York have uncovered areas, not to mention Texas, Michigan and all those others.
Some fo those are regulatory or just inability to scale quickly enough.

Just in case anybody actually imagines Tesla might have a demand problem sometime, just think about how limited the present service area actually is.
It will take a minimum of five years of 50% pa growth to even begin to have all those countries, and even then there will be large unserved places.

 

[AudubonB]

A cheery Good Morning from the Heart of the Alaska Range!

Late waking up. Just bought a slug of TSLA at $646.28. Missing the morning lows is my penalty for sleeping in.

At any rate, two can play the market manipulation game. Thank you, Wall St.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Me too.

Me too and I don't even know what he said yet.

 

[Zero CO2]

I'd prefer it if they didn't do the raise. If they don't have a use for the money for the purpose of developing the business, the capital raise signals the markets that the company views the share price as overvalued and cash as a better holding. Paying down low interest debt is only a little better than holding unneeded cash.

i think they have more captial at the moment than they can effectively spend ... Elon has mentioned this in the past .. just like manufacturing effectively deploying capital $$$ is hard ... until they announce more factories what are they doing with all the cash ...

sorry to pile on here ... but you asked for it

 

[DarkandStormy]

As unlikely as it seems, there are two walls of support at ~$631, if necessary. Both the lower Bollinger Band and the 50-day SMA are in that range, so if this slide continues this afternoon, expect some interesting action there around $631-632.

EDIT - or now. Sheesh.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Wasn't that low interest.

I admit I'm assuming. I consider anything below 4% to be low and it seems like over the last 5 years that would be pretty easy to get. I say this from the POV of being a home owner, not a finance professional. In other words, cut me some slack if I'm wrong. lol

 

[cusetownusa]

I'd prefer it if they didn't do the raise. If they don't have a use for the money for the purpose of developing the business, the capital raise signals the markets that the company views the share price as overvalued and cash as a better holding. Paying down low interest debt is only a little better than holding unneeded cash.

What do you consider low interest and what was the interest rate of the debt that they paid off? Also, how much of a capital raise did they do? I must have missed that part somehow.

 

[StealthP3D]

More and more I am seeing people justify the decline based on the conference call. A call I found to be one of the most positive I have listened to. Amazes me that these analysts think that a Tesla call, especially with the current environment, is going to be a rah rah sessions. Tesla presents things positively, but cautiously. 4680 project going well, but issues exist and others could pop up. Austin and Berlin construction going well, but issues could pop up. Tesla is executing well during the chip shortage, but something could popup that it is harder for Tesla to work around. These analysts should understand that being optimistic, yet cautious is a good thing.

Tesla was reassuring the long-term bulls that Tesla was performing great and their investment thesis should remain intact while not over-hyping the certainty of it all and causing the share price to get (potentially) way ahead of itself where it could cause a lot of pain for a lot of people if the chip or battery situation changed for the worse. Because when you parse the things they warned about you will see ALL of them were things pretty much beyond Tesla's control.

Personally, I prefer the share price to remain well below what I'm confident it's worth because I really don't want to have to wonder if it's too far ahead of itself, whether I'm being stupid to hold so much of it, and whether I should just sell and pay the huge taxes. I want a place to put my money where I know it's secure and will have superior returns over the years. It appears Elon wants the same thing.

I guarantee there will be missteps along the way and issues will crop up. I want the valuations to be such that the market will basically shrug them off as just a part of doing business, not act like the assets are toxic. I don't need that kind of drama in my life.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

As unlikely as it seems, there are two walls of support at ~$631, if necessary. Both the lower Bollinger Band and the 50-day SMA are in that range, so if this slide continues this afternoon, expect some interesting action there around $631-632.

A technical upside is, we remain in the wedge that's been forming all year. My observation has been wedges break harder to the upside when they develop all the way to the tip.

 

[st_lopes]

I admit I'm assuming. I consider anything below 4% to be low and it seems like over the last 5 years that would be pretty easy to get. I say this from the POV of being a home owner, not a finance professional. In other words, cut me some slack if I'm wrong. lol

The debt they paid down was at 5%+ rates and paying it off early effectively saved them nearly $200M of OPEX over next two years.

Multiple good reasons to do that including, but not limited to: influences a further credit upgrade, allows them to access new capital at better rates if they need it, allows them to keep more future earnings (as opposed to it going to capital+interest repayment), and nice boost to future EPS.