Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Does Tencent still hold TSLA? I remember they bought 5% back in 2017. They are down over 40% this year and 20% in last 5 days. It peaked on Feb 8th which was the last day TSLA was up near its ATH as well. Almost all the NEV stocks are highly correlated with Tesla in this market that appears to be algo and momentum fuelled rather than based on the complicated process of understanding anything (who wants to risk trying that? Not CNBC).
 
  • Like
Reactions: Skryll
1627402638165.png
 
It's incredibly hard for me to imagine the wedge breaks to the downside considering these earnings + the growth ahead. There's just nothing to support a break to the downside because it would have to be corrected nearly right away because the P/E would start to become a factor (in that Tesla is doing so well with earnings that they're dropping the P/E drastically quarter over quarter and this will only increase in further quarters).

So I have to use logic and say we're about to break the wedge to the upside and place my bets accordingly.

Btw what's your estimation on timeline of the "tip" of the wedge. We gotta be mere weeks away from it, if not days
It looks pretty darn soon but it depends on how you draw the bottom line. I just eyeballed it on BigCharts and I'd say it could go another 2 months before completely running out of room. I'd feel better about the pattern if the lower line was clearly trending up as opposed to flat but I still side with Starfox; it's gonna break to the upside.
 
IMO there was nothing Tesla could announce yesterday that would validate the PE--it's obviously not based on any sort of short term valuation model, IMO it's entirely based on some sort of subjective assessment about where Tesla could be if all the engineering works out. In terms of operations they did as well as anybody could possibly expect and then some, but it's really irrelevant. Current production, and even current production trends, simply can't get you there.

To me what it all boils down to is uncertainty over the 4680 and the battery pack, no more and no less. If one year from now all the curves have converged around 50% more range at 50% of the price with massively decreased charging times nestled into a gigacast body, then almost literally the sky is the limit. Production costs plummet, Berlin and Texas are cranking at full speed, margins are huge, and they've announced a $45K Y with 500 miles of range and a $35K M with 550 miles of range and are about to release a $25K car with 300 miles of range and they're cranking out about a million CTs and it's almost game over--every EV owner that visits a SC drives out again with an order in place.

(In the back of my peabrain I'm wondering if opening the supercharges is the price Elon had to pay to get some sort of credt or rebate reinstated.)

But it all depends on the battery and their ability to produce it at scale and to me last night put that somewhat in doubt. And given the current PE I don't think there's any middle ground--either the curves converge and they dominate the market for the next five years, or they don't and the current PE is absolutely ridiculous.

I'm a shareholder and I'll continue to add but I can absolutely understand the price reaction. Nothing they can do operationally can validate the PE; it's all about crystal ball gazing with respect to the battery and cost reduction and a $25K car with good margins--and possibly of course FSD as a wild card.
 
I could charge the TM3 loaner without problems on my HPWC usually used to charge my TMX.

If Palladium cars don't get the CCS plug in Europe I will be very frustraded. The adapter I have for my TMX is a real pain in the bøtt. I have to use all my strength to get it to detach and usually fumble for a long time before it does.
Yeah, the CCS adapter is pretty tight, but on the other hand, the v3-only locations are much quieter than the v2 with no issue of stall-pairing

As I just road-tripped to Barcelona, I did make a big Tweet about the experience

And for sure, the Palladium has to have the CCS, the Chinese MS/X had them, so why not?

 
IMO there was nothing Tesla could announce yesterday that would validate the PE--it's obviously not based on any sort of short term valuation model, I
...
Nothing they can do operationally can validate the PE; it's all about crystal ball gazing with respect to the battery and cost reduction and a $25K car with good margins--and possibly of course FSD as a wild card.
So, what you're saying is TSLA is a growth stock? If so, I agree with you. If you're saying it's overvalued, I disagree. The way I see it, the PE is plunging to the degree that this is now something of a unique hybrid. Solid, perhaps spectacular, growth stock that is rapidly becoming fundamentally strong as well. I disagree with any suggestion that every avenue of growth has to hit 100% realization before the current PE is valid. If just about any of them achieve full potential, IMO the value of the company has been solidly underestimated.
 
I'm a shareholder and I'll continue to add but I can absolutely understand the price reaction. Nothing they can do operationally can validate the PE; it's all about crystal ball gazing with respect to the battery and cost reduction and a $25K car with good margins--and possibly of course FSD as a wild card.
This one paragraph confuses me. A shareholder that is still buying more TSLA, but mostly doubts Tesla valuation as a "crystal ball"? Illogical Captain.
Recommend listening to Rob Maurer and Jim Cramer again. P/E could easily go from 600 to 100 next year alone.
When do you think Tesla stops growing, now?