Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MXWing]

Weekend gets even more amusing.

An ETF that mechanically takes bigger TSLA shorts for every purchases Cathie Wood owns and makes in TSLA? What could possibly go wrong here?

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

In the future Autopilot should take breath samples (or brain scans or something) when this happen, then drive them directly to the nearest police station instead of stopping on the highway.

I was hoping it would just drive me home, not get me arrested. WTF?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Wife got her bday M-Y surprise today & was agog for several minutes...

FTFY

 

[lascavarian]

Been watching Chuck Cook testing FSD unprotected left turns.

If someone can get a gentle request to him. The testing he is doing would be more realistic if he would resist fiddling with the screen at the corner.

He has a drone overhead with a good view.

My point is that a driver interacting with the control display is a high priority event for the SW to respond to. It is ok to do it occasionally but screen fiddling is injecting an exception into the situation the NN is working IMO.

I really like his videos so this is intended to be helpful commentary which I would do privately if I had his email. Don’t do the Twitter thing.

 

[jw934]

I was hoping it would just drive me home, not get me arrested. WTF?

Not with Autopilot. For that, you will need to buy or subscribe to FSD. An incentive. /s

 

[Budding]

It's a bounded curve, we know that. Elon said "20M in 2030, or maybe a little earlier". But Model 2 gets us to 10M cars/yr, and if Model 1/robotaxi comes into being, that'll take us to Elon's aspirational 20M cars/yr.

Except the math says 20M in 2028 given just a 58.5% CAGR (whereas Elon said by 2030).

Tesla Annual Vehicle Production: (est'd)

Year​	Prod(M)​
2020​	0.500​
2021​	0.792​
2022​	1.256​
2023​	1.991​
2024​	3.155​
2025​	5.000​
2026​	7.924​
2027​	12.559​
2028​	19.905​
2029​	31.548​
2030​	50.000​

Sandbagging, wot?

Cheers!

While it would be tremendous to get to 20M per year, I feel it's very difficult. I think growth will slow after 2025. There is 3M gap to 2026 which would mean they would need 3 to 5 new factories coming online without affecting existing ones. I would aim for a more conservative 20 to 30 percent growth which is still great.

 

[Artful Dodger]

While it would be tremendous to get to 20M per year, I feel it's very difficult. I think growth will slow after 2025. There is 3M gap to 2026 which would mean they would need 3 to 5 new factories coming online without affecting existing ones. I would aim for a more conservative 20 to 30 percent growth which is still great.

It's trival to get from 4M (Model 3/Y ramp) to 10M (w. Model 2 ramp). 3 more factories does that: 2M cars each in of Shanghai, Texas, and Berlin.

There's little addition engineering work required to produce those 3 factories which make localized versions of the same underlying platform, so engineering resources are not a bottleneck or limit. Most the the running gear will be lifted from the already proven Model 3 or derivatives of it, especially now that CATL is providing LFP packs for MiC 3/Y. Expecting LFP in N. America.

The unknowns at this point center mostly around Model 1/Robotaxi. It depends heavily on progress with the AI/neural net FSD package, while the car's hardware (or the gigapress technology to create it) mostly depends upon further volume manufacturing increases. Self-fulfilling.

Prediction: there may be 10M Robotaxis per year steady state, but that number is unlikely to be smaller than that. To be economic for the consumer, and profitable for Tesla, production must be:

Model S/X < Model 3/Y < Model 2/Z < Model 1/Robotaxi​

Cheers!

 

[Knightshade]

BY 2030 most new car buyers should want an EV. If everyone that wants an EV can buy one with EVs being close to 100% of new car sales, then that is "mission accomplished".

The only math that gets you to 100% EVs (or even especially close) for annual sales by 2030 is when you assume new car sales of non-EVs will entirely crater to nearly 0.

Because there's not going to be enough EV batteries to replace even half of the current ~70 million ICE sales by 2030 in any industry predictions I've seen- including Elons.

My impression is if Tesla can make 20 Million EVs by 2030, there will be willing buyers for every one

Absolutely.

. Even with maximum ambition other car companies will not be able scale EV production fast enough to achieve market saturation.

Yup- but keep in mind when Elon threw out the 20 million a year number he said he expected the entire rest of the industry to be at 10 million EVs.

So you still need 40 million more cars a year. (Or believe annual new car sales will drop from ~70 million to ~30 million I suppose)

I think that 20 Million EVs by 2030 is 15-25% of the car market, but Tesla's will come in different shapes and sizes... Tesla will need to expand the range of models to hit that kind of number.

Sure... the smaller car (whatever they name it) will be one example, some kind of van has been discussed pretty often as not only filling a consumer market demand but also replacing a lot of ICE delivery vehicles...and they're gonna need a truck smaller than the CT eventually just to name a few.

Beyond a certain point driving an ICE will be more like horse-riding, an expensive weekend hobby for the minority.

Yup, but 2030's a bit early for that.

Everyone likes to point at that NYC parade photo as evidence horse->car transition was SUPER fast... but it really wasn't... horses stopped showing in that parade, but remained in common use in NYC for another decade or two afterwards...and even longer in much of the rest of the country.

Bear in mind, 70 million new cars sell a year... but there's something like 1.4 billion on the road total. And that number keeps increasing

Which means 95% of them in any year aren't new cars.

Even if 100 percent of new car sales became EVS tomorrow
(and again that's just not physically possible with current and even projected for the next 5-8 years battery supplies)
It'd take at least 10 years before half the cars on the road are EVs, and at least 20 years to replace all cars on the road with EVs, and that's only if you assume net zero new cars which isn't a sound assumption especially in countries like China where car ownership is highly coveted and growing rapidly.

Run that same type of math with "only" 30 million new EVs a year by 2030 and it's a lot longer before ICE is a minority on the roads.


So given the known facts and math, 100% annual sales as EVs is not going to be earlier than the mid to late 2030s, and only if battery supply keeps ramping like crazy.

Which means you're looking more like 2050, optimistically, before "all" cars on the road apart from collectables/toys are EVs because that's the soonest enough EVs will exist.

Bottom line there will not be enough passion for ICE to prevent "mission accomplished"

Not a question of passion, but economics.

Most people, as in the vast vast majority of people, simply can't afford new cars.

The average car being driven around today in the US is 12 years old.

As you say most aren't passionate, they just need to drive from A to B. If they can keep doing that in their 12 year old paid-for corolla, they will, because that's all they can afford to do.

And you know what else is going to slow that aspect down?

As it becomes more and more obvious the EV is the car of the future.... resale will remain relatively high on them compared to ICE vehicles.

So when that guys old corolla breaks down eventually, he's gonna be looking to either spending X dollars on another used ICE econobox to replace it... or some number significantly higher than X for a good used EV.

You can probably make some pretty substantial TCO arguments to him about why the EV might still be the better long-term choice. But he only has X, and he's stretching to come up with that, so he's buying the ICE car.

Barring some huge government incentives (for example incentives that can apply to buying USED evs, especially if replacing an ICE vehicle) that's gonna keep old ICE vehicles on the road longer too.

 

[Knightshade]

Been watching Chuck Cook testing FSD unprotected left turns.

If someone can get a gentle request to him. The testing he is doing would be more realistic if he would resist fiddling with the screen at the corner.

My point is that a driver interacting with the control display is a high priority event for the SW to respond to. It is ok to do it occasionally but screen fiddling is injecting an exception into the situation the NN is working IMO.

EDIT to change which video I linked to, since the most recent doesn't contain any screen fiddling so you must be talking about the next oldest which is-

He moves the visualization around, but that has no impact whatever on the NNs... They already have to be "seeing" 360 around the car at all times, so changing the angle of what the display shows doesn't change what the car sees in any way.

What you see on that display is after the NNs have done their work.

Also this should probably go in one of the discussions here:

AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD

Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[EVWatcher]

You are again ignoring robotaxis, which will be on the road in tens of millions by 2030, and increasing exponentially.

I understand. Few of us can imagine the world after the arrival of AI. That's why it's called The Singularity: history after it is hard to foresee. Robotaxis will be the Transportation Singularity.

Im excited for robotaxi's too, but the chances that teslas growth would allow for exponentially more robotaxis year over year by 2030 would be pretty difficult. If they do get to their goal of 20 million cars a year by 2030 if they were to continue to grow at the same rate that would mean the world would need more robotaxis than it needs cars, which would be at odds with the idea the increased utility of robotaxis would mean there would need to be fewer cars on the road.

Im very excited for teslas growth over the next 10 years, but lets make sure we stay grounded in what makes sense as well as what is possible.

 

[UncaNed]

You are again ignoring robotaxis, which will be on the road in tens of millions by 2030, and increasing exponentially.

I understand. Few of us can imagine the world after the arrival of AI. That's why it's called The Singularity: history after it is hard to foresee. Robotaxis will be the Transportation Singularity.

Seriously if a left turn is such a challenging "edge case", then I'm sure not seeing Robotaxis in 2030.

Edit:
...unless maybe in 2 weeks...

And I'm not not a fan of the scenic rectangles.

 

[Buckminster]

Im excited for robotaxi's too, but the chances that teslas growth would allow for exponentially more robotaxis year over year by 2030 would be pretty difficult. If they do get to their goal of 20 million cars a year by 2030 if they were to continue to grow at the same rate that would mean the world would need more robotaxis than it needs cars, which would be at odds with the idea the increased utility of robotaxis would mean there would need to be fewer cars on the road.

Im very excited for teslas growth over the next 10 years, but lets make sure we stay grounded in what makes sense as well as what is possible.

1.4Bn vehicles in the world. If they have a 10 year lifespan that is 140m just standing still. It is true that one robotaxi can replace many vehicles but there are other use cases as costs tend to zero.

 

[CorneliusXX]

View attachment 690454

Weekend gets even more amusing.

An ETF that mechanically takes bigger TSLA shorts for every purchases Cathie Wood owns and makes in TSLA? What could possibly go wrong here?

That sounds so petty. Tuttle is basically saying, I don't care what companies Cathie chooses now or in the future I think it will be wrong.

 

[CorneliusXX]

It's trival to get from 4M (Model 3/Y ramp) to 10M (w. Model 2 ramp). 3 more factories does that: 2M cars each in of Shanghai, Texas, and Berlin.

There's little addition engineering work required to produce those 3 factories which make localized versions of the same underlying platform, so engineering resources are not a bottleneck or limit. Most the the running gear will be lifted from the already proven Model 3 or derivatives of it, especially now that CATL is providing LFP packs for MiC 3/Y. Expecting LFP in N. America.

The unknowns at this point center mostly around Model 1/Robotaxi. It depends heavily on progress with the AI/neural net FSD package, while the car's hardware (or the gigapress technology to create it) mostly depends upon further volume manufacturing increases. Self-fulfilling.

Prediction: there may be 10M Robotaxis per year steady state, but that number is unlikely to be smaller than that. To be economic for the consumer, and profitable for Tesla, production must be:

Model S/X < Model 3/Y < Model 2/Z < Model 1/Robotaxi​

Cheers!

Agree, and those numbers exclude CT/Van/Semi/Roadster which will likely scale along with Models 3/Y/2 and could add another couple of million vehicles.

 

[ThisStockGood]

Our favourite badboy SMR on future potential dividends:

 

[saniflash]

View attachment 690454

Weekend gets even more amusing.

An ETF that mechanically takes bigger TSLA shorts for every purchases Cathie Wood owns and makes in TSLA? What could possibly go wrong here?

the way I understand it this is implemented on the backend via swaps; how the counterparty of these hedges is up to them; this doesn't mean they necessarily have to short Tesla

 

[Artful Dodger]

Agree, and those numbers exclude CT/Van/Semi/Roadster which will likely scale along with Models 3/Y/2 and could add another couple of million vehicles.

Did you notice the Model 2/Z nomenclature for the compact Euro Sedan/CUV?

As in, "Zis ist der vey ve conquer Europe"...

Cheers!

 

[T@oo]

Did you notice the Model 2/Z nomenclature for the compact Euro Sedan/CUV?

As in, "Zis ist das vey ve conquer Europe"...

Cheers!

„Zis ist das der vey ve conquer Europe“ FTFY

 

[Artful Dodger]

I just noticed that my local electricity retailer has jacked their prices up to $0.123/kwh for the month of August.

At the current lowest cost of gasoline that I can purchase (Costco), and switching from a 40 mpg Toyota Echo, my new Model Y gets about 180 MPGe (Imperial).

Except that there are 5 free Level 2 chargers within 3 km of my house, and 2 free Level 3 (CHAdeMO) chargers within 20 km (shopping centers, libraries, malls).

If FSD truly does make Tesla's an appreciating asset, my main costs per mile will be tire wear and insurance (both of which Tesla is working to reduce in the future).

TL;dr Why would anybody order a new gaz guzzler these days? EVsFTW!

Cheers!

 

[kanweg]

I just noticed that my local electricity retailer has jacked their prices up to $0.123/kwh for the month of August.

For me that would be a reduction by 50% of my current (ha!) price. Man, you must be able save enough money with those prices to buy a boat load of TSLA.

On the plus side, the payback time of my 6 solar panels (that cover my entire annual electricity consumption) is shorter.