Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[new_sneakers]

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A friend sent me this, these numbers can't be right, right? @RobStark, don't you always post the registration numbers for Europe?

Read this article by Jose, and you will have gleaned everything there is to know about EV sales in Europe this year: Plugin Vehicles Hit 19% Market Share In Europe In June! Tesla Model 3 Has Best Month Ever!

Short answer: Tesla has the best-selling model in Europe, VW Group overwhelm Tesla in the Automaker category with their numerous models (and by counting sales to dealerships).

This sort of statistic is misleading because Tesla is better off selling cars closer to where they are made in the US and China, and in these regions (and globally) Tesla enjoys the #1 spot.

Eventually (which is to say in the coming year), Tesla will bring Model Y to Europe, the Model S and X will make their return, Giga Berlin will open, and then we shall see what we shall see.

 

[Maarten]

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A friend sent me this, these numbers can't be right, right? @RobStark, don't you always post the registration numbers for Europe?

I kindly refer to post #281,597 in this thread.
Data from Schmidt Automotive Research shows that the Tesla Model 3 is still the best-selling EV in Europe so far this year.
#2, Volkswagen, doesn't even come close.

 

[Drezil]

I kindly refer to post #281,597 in this thread.
Data from Schmidt Automotive Research shows that the Tesla Model 3 is still the best-selling EV in Europe so far this year.
#2, Volkswagen, doesn't even come close.

VW ist in front in Europe.
Even without Audi, Skoda etc.

ID.3 sells about 60% of model 3, Id.4 about 50% and e.up about 40%.

e.up is no longer built as it is produced at a loss, VW sells 99% of its Bevs in Europe.

Main hurdle for Tesla: supply of cars.
Will turnaround with Berlin.

 

[OrthoSurg]

I am glad somebody said this. I am not sure what is this fascination with retiring asap and living off your investments. Elon could have retired long ago and lived off his fortune. If anything, this board should learn from Elon and try to add more value to society than they extract from it.

Sorry for the rant.

As long as you leave the world a better place than it previously was, you can become financially independent and retire early IMO. The secret is to find a job you love, that you would do for free, that is useful for others and that make the world a better place for others. The problem is to resist retiring early because of the irritating aspects of any job. Elon probably realizes himself more by working everyday, taking no vacation, creating new technology, taking no vacation, of on the end it means bring the world to transition to sustainable energy and making the human race multiplanetary. These are noble goals for a noble cause to avoid extinction of the human race. I wouldn’t mind any employee at Walmart or McDonald’s who made a fortune through TSLA investment retiring early and helping their local community by any other mean. Some millennials like Jimmy Donaldson with his MrBeast YT channel give back more to the community than some other classic job. I think we should stop judging job by their salary or their wage but by how much they tend to improve the living of others and how much they positively affect the next generation on the planet, without destroying it along the way.

 

[SN_8]

I am glad somebody said this. I am not sure what is this fascination with retiring asap and living off your investments. Elon could have retired long ago and lived off his fortune. If anything, this board should learn from Elon and try to add more value to society than they extract from it.

Sorry for the rant.

To echo and supplement what others have eloquently said, I'm not sure why you paint with such a broad brush and equate retirement to being a bump-on-a-log drain on society.

Sure, some may think of it that way. But retirement can also provide the flexibility to optimally deploy your time and treasure in a way that you think maximizes value for the world rather than spending 8-5 grinding for an often un-innovative mission-less company in which the owners/execs only understanding of "value creation" is how to use PowerPoint and financial engineering to entice a greater fool to buy their company... not that I would know anything about that.

Elon is deploying his time and capital exactly the way he wants to improve society, and by the way has the flexibility to jet of to Italy to see friends whenever he wants... yeah he's working his ass off more than many of us combined, but still sounds like my definition of retirement to me.

 

[Paul_SF]

I appreciate everyone’s replies but the question was for the user I replied to, not for everyone.

Obviously he won’t honestly reply to it. To come into a investor’s forum and make statements like that is completely ridiculous. Maybe he’s not a shareholder that hopes to make more money from his investment?

 

[Radish11]

I really can't wait for to see July's China production numbers.......every time Wu Wan has done his fly overs, the lot is filled more than I ever saw in Q2 ( 9 min mark). And we know they have a constant flow of trucks taking cars away, sometimes upwards of 15 trucks at one time loading while more arrive. Seems like there's less transport trucks on the lot right now because this video was taken during a shift change (you can see the line of buses transporting works from the factory)

Do you know when those figures will be released

 

[CHGolferJim]

Listen carefully ... It's "union jobs", not "jobs".

Was the Big3/UAW dance with Biden enough to get them behind the second infrastructure bill in order to get the legislation over the finish line? There is serious opposition from most factions to elements of the $2T+ bill. Biden now has more leverage with relevant state Senators and Congresspeople, and can probably get these CEOs and senior UAW leadership to make calls. This must be part of the purpose for the event.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Spoiler: The Tesla Economist shows his math; says that he thinks Tesla energy mega pack product alone to be valued at $15 trillion by 2025

I hate this sort of thing. Its the sort of hyperbolic stock-pumping that would make crypto-enthusiasts blush. Tesla is amazing, and Elon extremely accomplished. we do not need to extrapolate wildly or exaggerate the situation like this. There are limits to how fast a single company can grow, and there are geopolitical reasons why a single american-owned company is going to be stopped before it dominates the global battery business.

Some people seem to think that tesla is staffed entirely by nobel prize worthy super-geniuses that turn everything they touch into gold. Its a great company, but companies can make mistakes. There is absolutely no guarantee that tesla holds on to its market share in battery storage. In the UK, you cannot get a powerwall without a long waiting time, but other companies, like alpha-ess exist and supply batteries.

Battery storage and solar rivals to tesla are not weighed down by legacy tech in the same way the big auto firms are. I see a massive competitive advantage for tesla in cars & trucks. I dont see a similar level of advantage in stationary storage. And you can see this in the financials. How many years have we heard "this is the year of the solar roof" and "tesla energy will take off this year". Its still so far a footnote.

 

[Thekiwi]

As a matter of routine Australians always claim any Kiwi who achieves anything worthwhile is really Australian.
We consider that as, merely promoting them to a better lineage. /s

We don’t mind helping out our brothers, a kiwi moving to Aus is usually the sort of event that raises the average IQ of both countries.

 

[hacer]

What do people think of The Joint Committee on Taxation’s revenue estimate (pdf) for Electric vehicle credits as proposed by Clean Energy for America Act?

View attachment 692758

Assuming $7,500 (refundable) EV credit per vehicle, this seems to project these yearly US EV sales:
2022: 37k
2023: 184k
2024: 208k
2025: 233k
2026: 265k
2027: 304k
2028: 342k
2029: 376k
2030: 411k
2031: 447k
2022-26: 927k
2022-31: 2.8M

Excluding the crazy number for next year, this looks semi-realistic as long as Tesla is excluded. To me this looks like solid evidence that Tesla will be excluded from eligibility for the tax credits in the final legislation. Despite what some have said, this could easily be accomplished by excluding manufacturers who had sales exceeding targets the previous year. E.g. Credit available to any manufacturer selling less than 200,000 electric vehicles in 2021, less than 250,000 in 2022, less than 312,500 in 2023, etc. That would allow all of the present automakers to (1) continue on the compliance-only train and (2) Enjoy a large price advantage for a long time enabling them to perhaps eventually reach near-competitiveness with Tesla.

 

[Nolimits]

I hate this sort of thing. Its the sort of hyperbolic stock-pumping that would make crypto-enthusiasts blush. Tesla is amazing, and Elon extremely accomplished. we do not need to extrapolate wildly or exaggerate the situation like this. There are limits to how fast a single company can grow, and there are geopolitical reasons why a single american-owned company is going to be stopped before it dominates the global battery business.

Some people seem to think that tesla is staffed entirely by nobel prize worthy super-geniuses that turn everything they touch into gold. Its a great company, but companies can make mistakes. There is absolutely no guarantee that tesla holds on to its market share in battery storage. In the UK, you cannot get a powerwall without a long waiting time, but other companies, like alpha-ess exist and supply batteries.

Battery storage and solar rivals to tesla are not weighed down by legacy tech in the same way the big auto firms are. I see a massive competitive advantage for tesla in cars & trucks. I dont see a similar level of advantage in stationary storage. And you can see this in the financials. How many years have we heard "this is the year of the solar roof" and "tesla energy will take off this year". Its still so far a footnote.

I agree with you that the numbers mentioned are likely just an exercise - executed perfectly too. However it is refreshing to conclude that autos are cyclical - even at economic downturn, they can focus on energy side of business and continue to meet demand, make profits etc.

It’s just good to know my investments are in a rather recession proof company.

 

[Unpilot]

You get a very rare disagree from me because your post is unfair, unkind, and untrue for our kids. Do you think you could have gotten into the same university today as back in the day when you went? I doubt I would have been accepted to mine.

Ha that line about college is so true in my case. I did not graduate high school ...never took any entrance exam's ....and still graduated with honors from my University.

The young people I worked with were more motivated and harder working than I at their age.
My optimism for the future is because of the young people doing the hard work to make a better world.


Edit: As for retirement and how to spend it. Man the idea that when one retires they then become a sap on society is ...well maybe true is some cases...but how many care for aged parents...volunteer at hospitals, airports, museums, mentor people in their field?

 

[nativewolf]

Excluding the crazy number for next year, this looks semi-realistic as long as Tesla is excluded. To me this looks like solid evidence that Tesla will be excluded from eligibility for the tax credits in the final legislation. Despite what some have said, this could easily be accomplished by excluding manufacturers who had sales exceeding targets the previous year. E.g. Credit available to any manufacturer selling less than 200,000 electric vehicles in 2021, less than 250,000 in 2022, less than 312,500 in 2023, etc. That would allow all of the present automakers to (1) continue on the compliance-only train and (2) Enjoy a large price advantage for a long time enabling them to perhaps eventually reach near-competitiveness with Tesla.

Those numbers won't get you to 50% not even 10%. If you want 50% of the fleet to be EV by 2030 then you are talking about 15 million EVS by 2030. Even Ford may blow through the 2024 numbers you reference by 2022. As many others have posted the event was solely about securing support from a group of important backers. As detroit will be gutted a bit by the transition to EVs this was an important meeting and an important statement. The world has decided to move to EVs, Detroit & admin knows that. It also has done the math and figured out that means more than 50% fewer jobs in automotive. That will be a hard hit on Michigan, Ohio, Indiana. EVs have less parts, easier to build, last longer, few wear points, etc. Over 30 years you will gut employment in automotive. So, then the question becomes who is going to build those cars, Toyota? VW? Honda? Nissan? Fiat?, MB?, BMW? , BYD?, Mazda?, Subaru?, Greely?, Landrover/Jag?, or Ford/GM/Chrysler. The admin is clearly trying to help detroit make a painful transition to capture as much of a shrinking pie as possible. Its so clear I don't know why anyone would even try to post something else but lo and behold many posters did.

Tesla is it's own force, needs no help but will benefit from this just as the original tax credits benefited Tesla and were squandered by GM. The real question now is whether or not Ford/GM/Chrysler squander the upcoming subsidy. Ford at least seems serious and in some form or another could survive (Rivian stake could exceed legacy ford valuation though). I could see Chrysler gone. GM..who knows. It was a brilliant meeting with just the right cast, Elon would have grabbed all the attention and it would have been all about Tesla which is not the sale Biden was making nor the sale needed for the American public.

 

[wtlloyd]

this guy gets it! ☝

 

[scaesare]

This is hilarious:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1423765442037002240

https://twitter.com/x/status/1423766260316266499

We need a measurement that's an Elon Unit (EU).

Something like 4.20 meters or 420.69 centimeters...

 

[Singuy]

this guy gets it! ☝

Yup, after watching Sandy's powertrain tear down and said "all these parts can go away with a few line of code" like what Tesla and others have implemented, we all know where the ev transition is going.

The average age of Tesla employees is 30, Gm is 44, and Ford is 50. You can tell which team is full of people begging for change anyway possible and which group are naysayers from progressive ideas.

The job apocalypse is coming. I was at autozone buying the few things my model 3 need like the evaporator coil cleaner. Just looking at all the oils, injection cleaners, tuners, spark plugs, gaskets, etc etc..even the 12v battery will be a thing of the past...rip whoever that make those, rip.

 

[scaesare]

Bullish for Tesla Energy (at least in the short term--not so much for humanity): (CNN)A major California hydroelectric power plant has been forced to shut down due to low water levels for the first time since it opened in 1967, officials said Thursday, as the state grapples with an unrelenting drought.

California hydropower plant forced to shut down as water levels fall at Lake Oroville | CNN

A major California hydroelectric power plant has been forced to shut down due to low water levels for the first time since it opened in 1967, officials said Thursday, as the state grapples with an unrelenting drought.

www.cnn.com

Back in 2017 flooding was so bad in Lake Oroville it broke part of the dam: Oroville Dam crisis - Wikipedia

Good thing our rulers are so intent on following the mone--er--I mean--following the science

Spoiler: OT: Oroville Dam

Whilst Wikipedia says the Dam was damaged due to heavy rains, the reality is that the spillway was damaged largely by cavitation due to drainage and anchoring issues underneath the concrete.

While there indeed were major amounts of rainfall that necessitated opening the gates to release a an amount of water greater than had been in some time, it wasn't in excess of design capacity.

 

[mongo]

Yup, after watching Sandy's powertrain tear down and said "all these parts can go away with a few line of code" like what Tesla and others have implemented, we all know where the ev transition is going.

Well... a few lines of code and rear brakes with integrated parking brake. Regulations require seperate service and parking brake mechanisms.

 

[FireMedic]

I hate this sort of thing. Its the sort of hyperbolic stock-pumping that would make crypto-enthusiasts blush. Tesla is amazing, and Elon extremely accomplished. we do not need to extrapolate wildly or exaggerate the situation like this. There are limits to how fast a single company can grow, and there are geopolitical reasons why a single american-owned company is going to be stopped before it dominates the global battery business.

Some people seem to think that tesla is staffed entirely by nobel prize worthy super-geniuses that turn everything they touch into gold. Its a great company, but companies can make mistakes. There is absolutely no guarantee that tesla holds on to its market share in battery storage. In the UK, you cannot get a powerwall without a long waiting time, but other companies, like alpha-ess exist and supply batteries.

Battery storage and solar rivals to tesla are not weighed down by legacy tech in the same way the big auto firms are. I see a massive competitive advantage for tesla in cars & trucks. I dont see a similar level of advantage in stationary storage. And you can see this in the financials. How many years have we heard "this is the year of the solar roof" and "tesla energy will take off this year". Its still so far a footnote.

Wanted to explain my disagree.

The video doesn’t say it would be worth that; but that it could be worth that.

I don’t see how you could argue that Tesla doesn’t have a technology advantage in energy. What about autobidder and their battery advantages, vertical integration and brand dominance.

As for geopolitical risk I think we’ve already seen Tesla display an ability to successfully enter foreign markets.

TAM is massive as we need a complete rebuild of our energy infrastructure and energy demands will continue to increase exponentially as BEV market penetration continues.

I’m not trying to change your mind or argue that I’m right and your wrong. Just saying that ruling it out as a POSSIBLE outcome may be a foolish errand.