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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Customer service through the app is great IF the menu options are what you want. If it something unusual and you NEED to talk to a human... you cannot.
One particularly stupid example... my address has no street name or number (rural UK). The 'enter your address' part of the app just cannot function for me as a result, so I always have to pick a random address in a nearby village, and hope to explain to them why.
Also I've been waiting FOUR MONTHS for a reply to a query about emmc replacement refunds.

Tesla don't know how bad their customer service is, because normally the PR department would get told, but they don't have one...
Its not like the company isn't cash-flow positive enough to hire a few PR people, and a bunch of customer service staff. Its not 2018 any more.
 
Whats so unique about autobidder? I'm currently going through planning permission to build a small 1MW solar farm with 500kwh stationary storage. I have a contract with a company called gridserve to handle power pricing arbitrage for me here in the UK. Basically autobidder.
AFAIK that company is just 3 people. A UK startup.
There is nothing patented or secret about what autobidder does. I suspect every single major storage provider has similar software. The one I'll be using is called GridIMP.
That's like saying any three people can be an investment firm. Yes they can, but that doesn't mean they are good at it. cough*youKnowWho*cough.

By analogy: Would you rather have had your TSLA sell on Friday at low of day, high of day, have more purchased (at low or high of day), day trading (low to high, or high to low), or wait?

Trading kWh for currency isn't the hard part, getting the most currency is (or providing the most benefit to the grid, if you are altruistic (though that should line up with peak pricing)).
The system needs to decide whether to export or import energy (and how much, inducing zero) approximately every cycle of every day. ~500 million times a year in the US.
 
This is all pretty easy. I'm a computer programmer, and nothing you have described is hard. Besides, in the UK, energy trading is generally done in half-hour price bids. So 48 trading events per day. Maybe its different in the US, but here in the UK, making 500 million energy trading decisions a year makes no sense.

And you say they wont be as good at it as tesla. Says who? wheres the proof? Tesla are not automatically amazing at everything just because they stick their logo on it. I'm saying, as someone who is *in the market for autobidder*, that it has zero competitive advantage. Especially given that tesla cannot even provide powerwalls in the short or even medium term.

Another example:
Arenko, doing exactly what autobidder does. Show we the EVIDENCE that tesla somehow provides a better ROI on energy trading than they do.
 
This is all pretty easy. I'm a computer programmer, and nothing you have described is hard. Besides, in the UK, energy trading is generally done in half-hour price bids. So 48 trading events per day. Maybe its different in the US, but here in the UK, making 500 million energy trading decisions a year makes no sense.

And you say they wont be as good at it as tesla. Says who? wheres the proof? Tesla are not automatically amazing at everything just because they stick their logo on it. I'm saying, as someone who is *in the market for autobidder*, that it has zero competitive advantage. Especially given that tesla cannot even provide powerwalls in the short or even medium term.

Another example:
Arenko, doing exactly what autobidder does. Show we the EVIDENCE that tesla somehow provides a better ROI on energy trading than they do.
I didn't say they would not be as good as Tesla (different poster). I said that being able to trade is different than trading well.
Yes they can, but that doesn't mean they are good at it.


A half hour block system is a way different animal than Hornsdale where Autobidder is being used heavily and provides features like fast frequency response and simulated inertia which would be difficult, if not impossible, to do with standard off the shelf equipment. Handling these short term events were a big feature of the system (vertical integration).

If operating as more of a base load system, yeah, autobidder is less of a differentiator.
 
Why not 4680's (from Kato Rd) exclusively in Performance MY, 2170's in Long Range MY until 4680's ramp. All North American Performance MY made in Austin (ship the batteries). Or, all North American Performance MY made in Fremont (ship the front castings). Europe could have a similar split with Made in Berlin Performance MY using imported 4680's and Long Range MY from China. This should keep margins high with the higher price Performance models.
That's a possibility, in my opinion it all depends on three factors: 1/ how fast Kato Rd is at producing 4680's. 2/ how easy it is to switch production lines from MY 2170 interim pack to MY 4680 structural pack, and 3/ how soon 4680 production in Berlin & Ausin is achieved.

Considering the current guesstimates, and Elon going Full Send, pushing for faster everything, my take is:

- some 4680 allocated to the low volume prototype Semi /CT (and Plaid X dev) but most of the built up inventory held to speed up the initial ramp of 4680 MY's once the production lines of 4680's are 98% ready, aka once the bigger steel roller issue is fixed (from 90% ready as explained in last Q2 earnings Q&A)
Performance MY would be first cars out of GF Berliin.

- GF Austin churns out ASAP MY's with intermediate "backup plan" 2170's with improved chemistry and battery pack more compatible with structural pack

- GF Berlin best case scenario gets 4680's running in time for MY with 4680 structural packs; else go the Austin route. Because Berlin is where Tesla's Grohman automation engineers are located

As usual, many new developments coming up, 2Q22 also looks like it may be when the elusive M2 (or MZ) gets in production, using BYD's Blade battery packs. see separate BYD Blade Batteries thread

For the SP, long term, all good - meantime, anything goes as you all know

Regarding Tesla Energy, interesting development re new iron/air tech unveiled by startup Form Energy (backed by Bezos too)
" .. Form Energy's first commercial product is a rechargeable iron-air battery capable of delivering electricity for 100 hours at system costs competitive with conventional power plants and at less than 1/10th the cost of lithium-ion. Made from iron, one of the safest, cheapest, and most abundant minerals on Earth, this front-of-the-meter battery can be used continuously over a multi-day period and will enable a reliable, secure, and fully renewable electric grid year-round. "
 
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If Elon had found a way to take TSLA private while keeping small investors in, as he intended, we might not have been on this manic depressive roller coaster. Our stakes could grow 50% a year in line with the fundamentals of the business. Imagine being able to celebrate a good earnings report without the bitter taste of the shenanigans of the market. I would much prefer that.

That's true, but I prefer to have the liquidity to buy and sell whenever I want. Current investors can't buy/sell 10 shares of SpaceX for example, and new investors can't jump in. Maybe Tesla could have figured out a way to do that and had the best of both worlds, but I'm not sure if that is possible or not.
 
He's pretty overweight too, at least by European standards and would do himself a big favour to clean up his diet, and allocate some time in the gym - our species needs this man healthy and to live a long, long time

Better diet and exercise would also improve help Elon's cognitive processes

In middle America he is svelte.
 
I'm somewhat confident Tesla won't be excluded. I believe those are the numbers prepared back in April or May for the bill as it stood at that time. I imagine the terms have changed since then.

If the bill excludes Tesla, it will slow down EV adoption in the US, both overall and Tesla sales (because legacy OEM's won't make enough to fulfill demand and some people consoidering EV's for the first time won't want to buy an unsubsidized EV). Of course it will speed up EV adoption and Tesla sales in the rest of the developed world because Tesla has the most EV production capacity.
Great. Send the surplus to Canada. Right now it’s 4 to 5 months for a model Y. We get a bunch of cars for about 3 weeks once every 3 months. Lots of people waiting for cars here.
 
If Elon had found a way to take TSLA private while keeping small investors in, as he intended, we might not have been on this manic depressive roller coaster. Our stakes could grow 50% a year in line with the fundamentals of the business. Imagine being able to celebrate a good earnings report without the bitter taste of the shenanigans of the market. I would much prefer that.

So, let me get out my calculator. $420 (funding secured) increasing 50% for three years. That works out too [tap, tap, tap] $1,417.50. Looks good. Oh, wait there was a 5:1 split wasn’t there. Ok [tap, tap] so $283.50 under the steady 50% growth scenario from $420, and remember the stock wasn’t $420 the day of the announcement, it was in the tree-fiddy range. That does not compare favourably to today’s $699.10 price. Furthermore, steady growth wouldn’t have provided all the irrational dips which gave me opportunity to load up on more shares. I think I’ll take the volatile path thanks.

Doesn’t mean I agree with Wall Street getting away with their (IMHO) illegal activities and the SEC condoning their shenanigans. I do believe that eventually, once in awhile, the market does realize TSLA’s true value though.

Edit: also what @Chunky Jr. said about liquidity.
 
So, let me get out my calculator. $420 (funding secured) increasing 50% for three years. That works out too [tap, tap, tap] $1,417.50. Looks good. Oh, wait there was a 5:1 split wasn’t there. Ok [tap, tap] so $283.50 under the steady 50% growth scenario from $420, and remember the stock wasn’t $420 the day of the announcement, it was in the tree-fiddy range. That does not compare favourably to today’s $699.10 price. Furthermore, steady growth wouldn’t have provided all the irrational dips which gave me opportunity to load up on more shares. I think I’ll take the volatile path thanks.

Doesn’t mean I agree with Wall Street getting away with their (IMHO) illegal activities and the SEC condoning their shenanigans. I do believe that eventually, once in awhile, the market does realize TSLA’s true value though.

Edit: also what @Chunky Jr. said about liquidity.
Ultimately the market, despite the shenanigans in the interim, will recognize TSLA's true value. This is the NUMBER 1 reason to be a hodler and only a hodler.