Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dl003]

I'm cracking up at all the people who down voted me, but hadn't even heard of Tesla when i invested in January '13.

I got the right to be a little worried.

To call the people who have seen it all in TSLA (and please dont pretend it’s got any easier since whatever arbitrary point in time you have set for other people)“morons” is disgusting. After all, we are the ones making the big bucks while acknowleging all the headwinds against the company, including its services, contrary to what you are telling yourself. “Morons” are the ones who couldnt see past these issues and sold.

Sometimes when you get so worried and pessimistic, its easy to get the feeling the world is against you. Some people need heroes to keep the asleep at night. Even if you dont believe in yourself, even if the present seems difficult, know that there are 80k people at Tesla who are giving everything they’ve got to further the mission everyday. Thats the surest bet anyone can make.
Some poster found on the floor at Fremont.

 

[goinfraftw]

...is it just me or has it been really boring to go from a year Tesla 10x's to a year, 7+ months in, where it hasn't appreciated at all?

 

[JRP3]

We might have some unique insight into Tesla lurking on TMC.

Should I ask him if Elon should be considered a co-founder?

The real Martin had an account here back in the day and used to post occasionally along with some other early Tesla people.

 

[Accident]

EV registration data from Washington state. No idea why they have 265 F150 BEV.

 

[AudubonB]

The WA registration data surely indicate a vehicle has in fact reached a real customer, and isn’t merely shenanigans by a manufacturer delivering a car (E-F150, for example) to a dealer? If so, I agree that is very strange indeed.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

...is it just me or has it been really boring to go from a year Tesla 10x's to a year, 7+ months in, where it hasn't appreciated at all?

I've been practicing selling calls to generate income so it's been a productive year for me. I'm getting to the point where regardless of whether TSLA moves any more, I'm pretty confident I can retire and still be able to generate enough cash to live from theta ganging.

 

[BLSmith2112]

...is it just me or has it been really boring to go from a year Tesla 10x's to a year, 7+ months in, where it hasn't appreciated at all?

it appears we are back to the regularly scheduled programming of 2014-2019.

 

[CorneliusXX]

it appears we are back to the regularly scheduled programming of 2014-2019.

I just hope this season isn't as long. Luckily there are plenty of plot twists coming over the next 18 months to shake things up.

 

[Criscmt]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1424619941387542532

 

[StealthP3D]

EV registration data from Washington state. No idea why they have 265 F150 BEV.

With all the hype about the recently announced BEV f-150, I imagine someone at the State accidently classified the F-150 plug-in hybrid as a BEV. It only has a 1.5 kWh battery and 10 mile electric range.

 

[StealthP3D]

I just hope this season isn't as long. Luckily there are plenty of plot twists coming over the next 18 months to shake things up.

It won't be as long. Remember what part of the "S" curve we are in? That's going to ensure we don't replicate 2014-2018.

 

[Remster32]

Jefferies upgrades Tesla to Buy from Hold. Price target increases from $700 to $850. Here is their note:

 

[Carl Raymond]

This is a good video to help imagine what the market will look like in 2030. Instead of projecting EV sales growth ”Electric Viking” considers what the tech will look like and how cheap it will have become, then asks “what moron will buy ICE?”. It’s simpler logic.

 

[lascavarian]

Jefferies upgrades Tesla to Buy from Hold. Price target increases from $700 to $850. Here is their note:

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Still only at 35% 5 yr CAGR. Every year TSLA grows 50+% this number will be under more and more pressure to get bumped up.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Aug. 9, 4:02 a.m. EDT Pre-market 709.66 +10.56 (1.51%)​

As I said last week, traders moved on to focus on this week last Thursday (gave up the 700 fight).

This week's Options Open Interest (OI) for Friday expiries will be available at around 7 a.m. ET.

Should be interesting (sic)...

 

[MC3OZ]

This is a good video to help imagine what the market will look like in 2030. Instead of projecting EV sales growth ”Electric Viking” considers what the tech will look like and how cheap it will have become, then asks “what moron will buy ICE?”. It’s simpler logic.

The other way to consider the problem is assume Tesla's battery day projections (3 TWh 20 Million vehicles) are right, and that in all probability the Chinese will at least match those numbers...

So Tesla and the Chinese combined will be making 40-50 Million EVs by 2030.

The next logical question is what does everyone else do about it, if other car makers aren't making at least a combined volume of 20 Million EVs they are well out of the race..

Now with an assumed 70 Million EVs available for purchase in 2030, what do the fast charging networks look like?

There is a good chance we have fast charging in most places where we need it, and rapidly coming elsewhere...

Now given all that and the fact that EVs are probably cheaper, who is going to buy an ICE?

I agree with the Viking - “what moron will buy ICE?”

The only bet Ford, GM, and co can be taking is that Tesla's Battery Day wasn't serious, and that BYD and CATL will ramp slowly...
I still think if Tesla is making 3 TWh by 2030, CATL and BYD combined will be making more...

Battery Day put the target on the table, IMO the Chinese will take that target on and try to beat it.,

Chinese wants to end oil imports... ASAP.

 

[petit_bateau]

For those who want a different take on design, build, and after-sales quality issues - this time coutesy a VW ID.3. Looks like Diess should get out and experience what the customers experience a bit more.

What should I do with a faulty VW electric car in my garage?

I told the lease company I was rejecting the car as it had so many defects but it hasn’t taken it away

www.theguardian.com

 

[hobbes]

There was a TV documentation of Giga Berlin a few days ago, here is an excerpt showing the progress:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1424436880733507585

This is a link to the complete video, not sure if geoblocked though:

Joyn - Serien, Filme, Sport & Live TV jederzeit streamen

Streame ganze Folgen, Filme & Sport online. Verpasse keine Sendung – egal ob nach TV-Ausstrahlung oder im Live TV. Mit Joyn jederzeit und überall.

www.prosieben.de

 

[fdutra1]

There was a TV documentation of Giga Berlin a few days ago, here is an excerpt showing the progress:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1424436880733507585

This is a link to the complete video, not sure if geoblocked though:

Joyn - Serien, Filme, Sport & Live TV jederzeit streamen

Streame ganze Folgen, Filme & Sport online. Verpasse keine Sendung – egal ob nach TV-Ausstrahlung oder im Live TV. Mit Joyn jederzeit und überall.

www.prosieben.de

Thanks, It is not available if you enter from the US though it may work with VPN after registration,,, looks interesting.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Now given all that and the fact that EVs are probably cheaper, who is going to buy an ICE?

I agree with the Viking - “what moron will buy ICE?”

It'll be very interesting to see what happens to prices on used ICE cars in Norway as soon as the chip shortage is over.

With 50%+ market share for EVs I predict used ICE prices will start going down quickly. There is always the possibility of exporting but that will only work to some degree and only because they are first to be in this situation.

For the rest of the world. Do you REALLY want to buy a full price new ICE car in say 2025-26 when it's probably a given that supply will far outstrip demand when you try to sell or trade it in a few years later? What about leasing companies? Will the math still work when they can't be sure they can sell the car they get back in three years?

At some point everyone, not just the growing marketshare that buys EVs, will understand that buying another ICE will come with a huge value loss another few years ahead.

I think that will start happening on a large scale a lot faster than 2030. Probably already in 2025-27. The only thing that will save ICE numbers crashing then is the continued supply problems of new EVs. That supply issue might even create a situation where for a short period people keep their used ICE cars a few years extra, actually making the value of used ones go up for awhile before crashing down.