Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CHGolferJim]

During today’s trading session, TSLA dipped below both its 50 & 200-day SMAs (simple moving averages). Then it closed above both of them. If it closes above them again tomorrow, that should bolster their significance as support levels.

Do you think there is significant institutional/retail trading against these indicators, or mostly programmed/algos?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Unbelievably, the current political climate is very hostile to Elon and Tesla and for me this is the most concerning. But I am not that concerned overall....

But Elon has a trump card up his sleeve: SpaceX. It will become more and more indispensable to future of America in space. And if he brings the country back to the moon, and eventually Mars, it will become the pride of the nation. That should give him more clout in Washington. Which will also benefit Tesla.

 

[traxila]

To keep today's drop in perspective:

-4.68% GM
-3.49% F
-2.98% TSLA

Thanks for the perspective, Curt!

Honestly, GM SP should have suffered major carnage on the across the board battery recall. If BEVs are the acknowledged future, what is the future for GM? No need to speculate what a similar recall would have meant for TSLA.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Especially with TSLA pulling back leading up to AI day, I think we could see a real pop in SP. So much downlplaying , just a ‘recruiting event’, yet there are hints we’ll hear about non-vehicle AI progress. Another Tesla market that analysts will have to factor into the share price. Expecting a 5-10% pop.

Hints where? from who? from an official source? This forum ALWAYS does this. Tesla literally state in 200 point bold all caps that something is just a recruitment event, and everyone expects them to announce a model 2/robotaxi/flying car/jetbike.

Its a recruitment event, not a stock-pumping event, or a product announcement, or anything else. I strongly suspect that unless you code neural networks for a living there will be nothing of interest.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Hints where? from who? from an official source? This forum ALWAYS does this. Tesla literally state in 200 point bold all caps that something is just a recruitment event, and everyone expects them to announce a model 2/robotaxi/flying car/jetbike.

Its a recruitment event, not a stock-pumping event, or a product announcement, or anything else. I strongly suspect that unless you code neural networks for a living there will be nothing of interest.

In this case, that poster has legitimate reason to speculate. Because the guy that's head of robotics(forget where exactly) that will be at the AI Day AND he was the one teasing surprises. It's not like we're talking Sawyer "sources" here. Now whether they move the stock at all, who knows.

 

[Knightshade]

Regarding the NTSB:
1. It does NOT have any regulatory authority whatsoever;
2. It DOES react to political or objective considerations;
3. Nearly always the NTSB conclusions and recommendations represent rational, albeit risk-averse, conclusions;

I have attended NTSB hearings. I have discussed issues with multiple members. They will react to political, popular or industry pressure to investigate either specific accidents or a class of accidents. Nearly all of my NTSB involvement has been regarding aviation issues.

Years ago, in 2013, they had hearings on lithium-ion batteries in transportation. At the time they had testimony form many and Boeing was on the spot for Li-ion fires in Boeing 787. The only testimony that showed how to control the risks was from a Tesla engineer. Neither Boeing, nor SAFT, their supplier, had a clue. When tiny, insignificant Tesla showed how to do it there was some odd reaction.

Many of their recommendations are not adopted. They have access to solid expertise on many arcane transportation issues. Without any doubt, given their mandate, they investigate matters that significant political or industry interests want to be investigated.

Given their mandate and the popular interest in automated driving, electric vehicles and the like...it is obvious that they were forced to investigate Tesla autopilot.

I'll offer odds 7 to 3 that there will be some recommendations that involve labeling, human driver monitoring and some recommendations regarding emergency vehicle placement, signaling (lighting mostly, perhaps) and some procedural issues, possibly incorporating specific operator training.

Why: they invariably issue Muti-faceted recommendations without any concern about their practicality. They also were responsible for initiating aircraft type ratings, air traffic control procedures, highway signage, promoting a few innovations such as seat belts, airbags and criticized 'swing axles' (e.g.VW, Chevrolet Corvair).

This investigation will be interesting. If there will be public hearings attending them will be educational.

FWIW, I walked out of those hearings in Washington DC and bought TSLA, liquidating 'safe' investment to do that.

So, pay attention to NTSB. For good or ill, it will be educational.

Just for clarity-- this new investigation is not the NTSB.

It's the NHTSA.

Which does have regulatory authority.

 

[dl003]

But Elon has a trump card up his sleeve: SpaceX. It will become more and more indispensable to future of America in space. And if he brings the country back to the moon, and eventually Mars, it will become the pride of the nation. That should give him more clout in Washington. Which will also benefit Tesla

That'd be true assuming politicians will prioritize public advancement over personal gains. SpaceX's success so far hasn't come without several fights in court against the government.
I'm not gonna harp on what I already said but everyday that goes by it just seems TSLA is getting treated worse and worse.

 

[Drezil]

To keep today's drop in perspective:

-4.68% GM
-3.49% F
-2.98% TSLA

Well.. GM had to give up all planned profits for q3 due to the recall and is "only" down -4.68%.

 

[capster]

Especially with TSLA pulling back leading up to AI day, I think we could see a real pop in SP. So much downlplaying , just a ‘recruiting event’, yet there are hints we’ll hear about non-vehicle AI progress. Another Tesla market that analysts will have to factor into the share price. Expecting a 5-10% pop.

No doubt the press will be giving AI day lots of accurate and informative coverage as evidenced by the considerable attention they’ve given Tesla and Autopilot just today.

Why today the WSJ had a front page article about Autopilot, a photo caption noting that Tesla’s stock price fell in a general article about stocks rebounding, and an article on the Slander Sheet Heard on the Street page that was a marbles-in-the-mouth mash of "extraterrestrial" valuation and the competition is coming.

The NYT treated us to an almost full front page of the Business section photo montage of Tesla crashes together with commentary by Neal Boudette and Niraj Chokshi.

Hmmm, wait. Do you think it’s possible some dastardly villains were just trying to take away whatever wind might come into TSLA’S sails as a result of AI day?

Well, at least the NHTSA will do something about and the papers will cover the increased lethality of ever larger trucks and SUV’s with dangerously boxy designs, right? Right? No, I thought not. Sigh.

The SUVs and Trucks We Love Are Killing People

Rugged, high-clearance, all-wheel-drive vehicles are great for getting out there—but at what cost to cyclists and pedestrians?

www.outsideonline.com

"Numerous studies have found that SUVs and trucks are more deadly to vulnerable road users (VRUs) in almost any crash: they are at least 50 percent more likely to kill, according to a comprehensive review of studies from 2010 published in the journal Traffic Injury Prevention."

"Crashes with SUVs do more damage. A 2005 study from the Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine’s annual journal found that severe torso injuries are 98 percent more likely to occur in a crash with a vehicle in the light-truck category. After head trauma, injuries to the torso are the second-leading cause of death in VRU collisions."

 

[StealthP3D]

"Possibly the best all around car ever made". His expression when launching is hilarious.

Doug has a way of pretending to be positive on a Tesla while subtly making you lose interest in owning it. He had some really good FUD around 35 minutes during his test drive. He says he's just blown away by the performance while being mortified that "regular people" are going to have access to this. He says
"You can see the headlines now, this is going to lead to some stuff."

The real kicker is when he adds "It doesn't require skill anymore to afford a car this fast." Huh? Since when did it require skill to afford the fastest cars? Maybe he is talking about the way Bugatti won't take your money until you prove to the salesman that you have good driving skills? Yup. that's right, Bugatti was always known for refusing to let bad drivers buy their cars Uh-huh.

Or maybe he's talking about how the ultra-rich are always born with a silver spoon in their mouth and with built-in performance driving skills?

 

[StealthP3D]

But there is no logic pathway in a neural net. There’s only the input pixels and a bunch of layers and weightings and a result. You can’t say ‘why‘ other than that’s what the mathematics produced. It gets so abstract that ‘reasoning’ disappears.

Dang! It sounds like you're saying a neural net works just like a human? So, after the crash it's just like "It happened so fast I'm not sure what happened."

At least with a human we can blame it on things we can understand, like "human error". That's so comforting!

 

[capster]

But Elon has a trump card up his sleeve: SpaceX. It will become more and more indispensable to future of America in space. And if he brings the country back to the moon, and eventually Mars, it will become the pride of the nation. That should give him more clout in Washington. Which will also benefit Tesla.

I’ll try to tread carefully enough to respond.

We’ll have to watch the actions as opposed to the spectacles. I expect Elon and Tesla to continue to be the public whipping boys, sad as that is to say. But we’ll need to look at what actually gets turned into law.

Due to the last few days, what is now in question is this administration’s competence and, hence, it’s clout. This could affect the evolution of the two bills. (Unfortunately, it will also change the calculus in Beijing wrt Washington. Hopefully there will be no missteps there.). Further, some of those whose opinions were overridden in the withdrawal might be the same folks most informed about and interested in SpaceX.

Detroit appears to have more sway than I would’ve expected or even seems sensible. It will be counterproductive long-term for the US and the legacy OEM’s themselves, if PHEV’s get equal benefits with BEV’s in the $3.5 trillion package, even if that is near term beneficial. Indeed there is a good chance this policy will cede EV’s, ex-Tesla, to China.

 

[StealthP3D]

Well.. GM had to give up all planned profits for q3 due to the recall and is "only" down -4.68%.

I guess GM didn't retain sufficient warranty reserve for their Bolt. Who woulda thunk?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I’ll try to tread carefully enough to respond.

We’ll have to watch the actions as opposed to the spectacles. I expect Elon and Tesla to continue to be the public whipping boys, sad as that is to say. But we’ll need to look at what actually gets turned into law.

Due to the last few days, what is now in question is this administration’s competence and, hence, it’s clout. This could affect the evolution of the two bills. (Unfortunately, it will also change the calculus in Beijing wrt Washington. Hopefully there will be no missteps there.). Further, some of those whose opinions were overridden in the withdrawal might be the same folks most informed about and interested in SpaceX.

Detroit appears to have more sway than I would’ve expected or even seems sensible. It will be counterproductive long-term for the US and the legacy OEM’s themselves, if PHEV’s get equal benefits with BEV’s in the $3.5 trillion package, even if that is near term beneficial. Indeed there is a good chance this policy will cede EV’s, ex-Tesla, to China.

The sway legacy OEM's currently have will be diminished significantly when Giga Texas is fully ramped and Tesla has announced another Gigafactory in the US (which I fully expect to happen when Giga Texas first stage of construction is done).

At that point, Tesla will be responsible for so many well paying jobs here in the US that they'll be hard too ignore. Democrats and Republicans both will have to acknowledge that voter base along with the voting base that buys Tesla's in the US (which will be close to a million annually by the time Giga Texas is ramped).

 

[Drezil]

I guess GM didn't retain sufficient warranty reserve for their Bolt. Who woulda thunk?

But if that happens to GM, then TSLA has to increase their reserves by a massive amount! They are the newcomers! /s

 

[mblakele]

Dang! It sounds like you're saying a neural net works just like a human? So, after the crash it's just like "It happened so fast I'm not sure what happened."

At least with a human we can blame it on things we can understand, like "human error". That's so comforting!

There’s some evidence that when we humans explain our own behavior what we’re really doing is rationalizing after the fact. “I did X, therefore I must have been thinking Y and it didn’t work out because Z”.

Tesla should be able to train a neural net to mimic this human behavior, using data from existing accident reports.

 

[Singuy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1427667135707467778

I have wondered why Elon doesn't call BS and drop a few relevant stats on Twitter to set the record straight and take control of the narrative. Is he waiting until AI day? Or is there a better strategy I'm missing?

Trust in the media is at an all time low. Pretty sure Elon is allowing them to destroy themselves while letting the product do the talking. Doing damage control would give the media credibility they don't deserve.

 

[jbcarioca]

Just for clarity-- this new investigation is not the NTSB.

It's the NHTSA.

Which does have regulatory authority.

Thanks. I have deleted my post. Everything I said about NTSB is true, but NHTSA is another beast and has a distinctly political perspective.

 

[space_s3x]

 

[StealthP3D]

Thanks. I have deleted my post. Everything I said about NTSB is true, but NHTSA is another beast and has a distinctly political perspective.

No need to delete, it was good info and while the NTSB Isn't leading this investigation, they definitely encouraged it (and have praised the decision to open this investigation). Last year the NTSB urged NHTSA to develop driver monitoring standards for Tesla's system and even went as far as to place some of the blame of a fatal accident on NHTSA for not having driver monitoring standards.

It doesn't take any imagination to see where at least some of the pressure to investigate comes from.