Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

Shanghai is currently several buildings at ~3.8m square feet total.
Berlin is a ~2.3m square foot building with a ~250k second building.
Austin is ~4.9m square feet with another ~800k building beginning construction

Berlin is the smallest and has taken the longest.

You have NO idea how many baby sand dragons were displaced in Shanghai, nor the huge number of bats that have had to adjust to the upheaval of one of their main foraging sites in Austin. The stress caused to these populations of sentient species would never happen in Germany!

 

[MP3Mike]

The original plans for Giga Berlin were pretty massive, I have a feeling that Tesla has significantly pared them down though given how massively far Berlin has lagged behind Austin and Shanghai at putting sqft/capacity online.

White was original plan, colors is current.

I think the question is: Is Tesla just delaying the remaining ~3/4 of the GigaBerlin plan, or are they fed up and have essentially cancelled it and will be looking for a second European location to build the remaining capacity?

 

[jerry33]

Shanghai is currently several buildings at ~3.8m square feet total.
Berlin is a ~2.3m square foot building with a ~250k second building.
Austin is ~4.9m square feet with another ~800k building beginning construction

Berlin is the smallest and has taken the longest.

That was pretty much a given from the outset. It was no surprise that German Bureaucracy slowed construction. I suspect that's why it's smaller, because the market in Europe could use a much larger factory.

 

[ZachF]

I think the question is: Is Tesla just delaying the remaining ~3/4 of the GigaBerlin plan, or are they fed up and have essentially cancelled it and will be looking for a second European location to build the remaining capacity?

They may add more eventually, but I just think they'll get much lower priority when the CAPEX budget is doled out.

The EV space is going to be decided heavily in part by who can bring capacity to the market in the shortest amount of time... Germany has performed poorly in this regard.

Elon seems at a glance to be satisfied with progress in Austin, as there has not only been a new 800k sqft cathode plant added to the east of GigaAustin, but also a ~1m square foot SpaceX facility to the west... I would not be surprised for more in the future.

Tesla has also supposedly bought more land south of Giga Shanghai IIRC.

 

[generalenthu]

If your bet on CT outselling the Lightning were for 2023, I have no doubt you'd win, and the margin would probably be large. In 2022 Ford and Tesla could each have their efforts supported by good fortune or the opposite could happen. Tesla has a lot of new technology to utilize in its mass production.

That is exactly right. It's not a slam dunk. Model 3 sold less than 3k units in 2017, the year of its first release. It took a while for the gears to start cranking.

Lightening is a way less ambitious project with much less execution risk that lets Ford churn out a few tens of thousands of those pretty easy. And Tesla is not in a do or die situation and they have a ton of other projects that can absorb the 4680s, be it the Y, semi, or the energy business until they get this one exactly how they want it.

My money is still on Tesla, but would not be surprised to see Ford getting a head start.

 

[SN_8]

Monday's CNBC will be all about this. And I'm sure our two fav senators will also be chirping about Tesla autopilot Tesla car on autopilot hits parked police car in Florida Lora of course has already written her piece on this. This tweet says it all

https://twitter.com/x/status/1431681334724939785

At the risk of perpetuating this non-story about an accident that caused zero injuries... Can someone please explain to me why a police vehicle would be even partially over the shoulder line impeding 65+ mph traffic on an interstate highway? In my experience it is extremely rare not to have a shoulder on an interstate wide enough to fit a police car.

And yes, I'm implying that the officer might share responsibility for the accident along with the inattentive driver due to his/her unsafe actions.

If I'm just jumping to unwarranted conclusions, first, I apologize. Second, excuse me while I start my new career as a journalist.

 

[Rarity]

They may add more eventually, but I just think they'll get much lower priority when the CAPEX budget is doled out.

The EV space is going to be decided heavily in part by who can bring capacity to the market in the shortest amount of time... Germany has performed poorly in this regard.

Elon seems at a glance to be satisfied with progress in Austin, as there has not only been a new 800k sqft cathode plant added to the east of GigaAustin, but also a ~1m square foot SpaceX facility to the west... I would not be surprised for more in the future.

Tesla has also supposedly bought more land south of Giga Shanghai IIRC.

Are you talking about what was thought to be the Model 2 factory? If so, then I understand that land purchase never went through. Would love to be corrected on that.

I don't think Germany will have lower priority for capital. But apparently the pipe for capital can only fit so much at one time in Germany. We'll see, once Tesla obtains its final approvals for what they are already building. Tesla will probably quickly thereafter file for the second phase of construction.

As for Austin, I agree that it hasn't been too bad, given that bad weather has hampered construction. It appears that that location can accept capital at a reasonable clip. We'll see about any labor constraints.

 

[RobStark]

Tesla Model Y — 2nd Best Selling SUV In California, & Model 3 The 5th Best Selling Car - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! The Tesla Model Y is now the 2nd best selling SUV or truck in California, based on registration data from the first half of 2021. The Model 3, meanwhile, is the 5th best selling ... [continued]

cleantechnica.com

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

The original plans for Giga Berlin were pretty massive, I have a feeling that Tesla has significantly pared them down though given how massively far Berlin has lagged behind Austin and Shanghai at putting sqft/capacity online.

White was original plan, colors is current.

That original plan is for a 2 million/year car production.

Are you suggesting that they should have been starting on the next building already?

Or that we know anything at all about Teslas further plans in this regard?

Unfortunately most everywhere in the EU will have similar delays because of environmental permits. I guess in some of the eastern countries it might be possible to 'by-pass' permit problems by greasing the right hands. I'm sure Tesla won't. Most of those countries would have plenty of other problems Tesla would want to avoid anyway.

You need to build the cars in the EU to get the benefits from selling them there.

Tesla Berlin will do just fine as a car factory and is still about a year ahead of any reasonable timetable. Elon knows that.

 

[UkNorthampton]

They may add more eventually, but I just think they'll get much lower priority when the CAPEX budget is doled out.

The EV space is going to be decided heavily in part by who can bring capacity to the market in the shortest amount of time... Germany has performed poorly in this regard.

Elon seems at a glance to be satisfied with progress in Austin, as there has not only been a new 800k sqft cathode plant added to the east of GigaAustin, but also a ~1m square foot SpaceX facility to the west... I would not be surprised for more in the future.

Tesla has also supposedly bought more land south of Giga Shanghai IIRC.

GigaBerlin is VERY close to Poland. Easy for parts suppliers to supply a GigaPoland & Berlin. A lot of Berlin staff will commute daily from Poland. Tesla have options.

 

[jbcarioca]

Bozos will be a footnote in history compared to Elon.

we need not diminish one accomplishment to credit another.
Bezos & co pretty much invented web services. It was there, but did not work well.
Bezos & co reinvented retailing in much of the world, and imitators followed closely.
those are not as sexy as SpaceX nor even Tesla, but they have been consequential.
why is it surprising that the Bezos-Musk relationship is competitive.
FWIW, I owe them both large debts of gratitude just as I do the inimitable Mr Jobs.

 

[redan]

Texas is so ready. The investing world (other than us at TMC) is going to be shocked.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1431704628916211712

 

[jhm]

Weekend homework....
If Tesla continues their tear to produce profitable EVs at scale, and destroys the competition like they appear to be poised to do....what are the unfair challenges likely to be? We are already seeing some of this behavior with the Biden snub. The EV tax credit might be written or later modified to exclude Tesla. Investigatons and regulations could be used. Monopoly lawsuits could be brought. Just curious how good people here might be at predicting the possible headwinds since without them this Tesla story is way too easy...

Self-driving cars could be excluded from EV tax incentives.

 

[RobDickinson]

View attachment 702663

Tesla Model Y — 2nd Best Selling SUV In California, & Model 3 The 5th Best Selling Car - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! The Tesla Model Y is now the 2nd best selling SUV or truck in California, based on registration data from the first half of 2021. The Model 3, meanwhile, is the 5th best selling ... [continued]

cleantechnica.com

That first chart is interesting, 27k of 85k of model Y in USA ended up in 1 state, 32%, yet Cali is only 12% of the US population

 

[kengchang]

That first chart is interesting, 27k of 85k of model Y in USA ended up in 1 state, 32%, yet Cali is only 12% of the US population

Gasoline price, carpool sticker, decent income and most people can charge at home all contribute to this.

 

[FireMedic]

Gasoline price, carpool sticker, decent income and most people can charge at home all contribute to this.

Sorry I couldn’t easily find this as a chart or table. I believe household solar is a big factor as well.

When people can use their own accumulated solar energy as a replacement for dinosaur juice, the transition to EV becomes even easier.

There is a chicken/egg argument to made here as well. Someone more willing to see the benefits of household solar is more likely to see the benefits of EV.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

On topic since any rocket launch might have an impact on Elons mood.

Seriously, go watch the weirdest rocket launch ever. Just happened.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

My prediction is first Model 2 factories will be India, China, and an Eastern European neighbor to Germany.

India would be well on their way to a Tesla factory were it not for the incredible political clout of Tata.

I would not rule out model 2 production in Berlin. To almost everyone I know, the standard range tesla model 3 is way, way too expensive for them to consider as their next car, and I mainly talk to affluent office workers in the SW of England. You don't need to be selling to people in India or Eastern Europe to find a huge market for a cheaper Tesla.
A £25,000 Tesla would sell like crazy in the UK. Not many people have the money to buy a new model 3. Not even the standard range one, not even considering fuel and maintenance savings.

Of course, it *might* be cheaper to make a model 2 in eastern Europe/India and ship it to the UK/France/Germany, but who knows what the situation regarding transport costs and tariffs etc will be? And the cheaper the car, the higher the portion of its cost represented by transport costs to the customer.

All a log way off though. Tesla are yet to ship a single model Y, or any trim, to the UK. Plenty of stoked up demand for that car, and the model 3, before even needing to hit lower price points.

 

[Prunesquallor]

we need not diminish one accomplishment to credit another.
Bezos & co pretty much invented web services. It was there, but did not work well.
Bezos & co reinvented retailing in much of the world, and imitators followed closely.
those are not as sexy as SpaceX nor even Tesla, but they have been consequential.
why is it surprising that the Bezos-Musk relationship is competitive.
FWIW, I owe them both large debts of gratitude just as I do the inimitable Mr Jobs.

I agree. The anti-Bezos stuff here and on Twitter smells WAY too much like TSLAQ. I vote for cutting it out.

 

[PeterJA]

View attachment 702664

Tesla Model Y — 2nd Best Selling SUV In California, & Model 3 The 5th Best Selling Car - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! The Tesla Model Y is now the 2nd best selling SUV or truck in California, based on registration data from the first half of 2021. The Model 3, meanwhile, is the 5th best selling ... [continued]

cleantechnica.com

Manufacturers Suggested Retail Prices according to Google:

Toyota Camry From $25,045
Honda Civic From $21,250
Toyota Corolla From $20,025
Honda Accord From $24,970

Tesla Model 3 From $39,990

Toyota Prius From $24,525
Nissan Sentra From $19,510
Hyundai Elantra From $19,650

So a luxury car has invaded the California econobox market, outselling half the top 7 models, at roughly twice the price. Guess what will happen when Tesla's economy model arrives.