Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Skryll]

Berlin wasn't scaled back because of permits or environmental concerns, it was the German govt waiting for Tesla to break ground and then immediately trying to cut Tesla out of their domestic EV subsidies.

On what grounds - source ?

As was noted, not too hard for suppliers or Tesla themselves to mow setup in Poland or elsewhere to manufacture packs so there's less footprint in DE but the cars still get the subsidy.

how is EV subsidy tied to footprint of the factory ?

 

[StealthP3D]

Self-driving cars could be excluded from EV tax incentives.

And TSLAQ would flip from "Tesla doesn't have any self-driving cars" to "Every Tesla is a self-driving car with the flip of a switch" faster than you can say "Timbuktu".

 

[PeterJA]

...he thinks that the world will run out of fans of the cybertruck design...

I have a question for folks who think Cybertruck's "weird" design will have limited appeal to buyers whom automajors woo with "built tough" commercials featuring trucks climbing boulders with gravel-voiced narration.

Do they think this design looks weird? (stealth aircraft)

Or this? (stealth tank)

Or this? (stealth boat)

I have no idea if Cybertruck is actually a stealth vehicle, but its design and bulletproof steel say Badass Military. Does that appeal to buyers of "tough" trucks?

 

[JRP3]

I agree. The anti-Bezos stuff here and on Twitter smells WAY too much like TSLAQ. I vote for cutting it out.

It's nothing like TSLAQ, Bezos is actively attacking Elon's SpaceX efforts because he can't compete, not to mention the well publicized abuses of Amazon workers. Bezos has earned our scorn for many reasons.

 

[Thekiwi]

Weekend OT: I think the reaction to TeslaBot has been surprisingly muted, even amongst most Tesla Bulls. Humanoid robotics I think is potentially a massive new market in a wide variety of areas with a multitude of use cases across every sector of society: industrial, commercial, retail, consumer & military - and virtually no other company is dedicating resources to it as they don’t have the AI software team to make a humanoid robot useful. It’s a massive blue ocean opportunity.

I increased my long term projected value of Tesla considerably post AI day, as I now see 4 clear “legs on the stool” in terms of primary Tesla revenue drivers:

- Automotive
- Energy
- Services/other
- Robotics

(I’m hoping Boring company and Housing get added as two more “legs“ as well in future)

 

[johnm6875]

I'd love it if the Boring Company were made part of Tesla, but I'm pretty sure they'll stay separate. There might be a good bit of money selling robotaxies to the Boring Company, however.

 

[Singuy]

Who knew, robotaxies are not profitable because people don't want to ride in them. I was thinking about this the other day, how Tesla is the only company that have monetized autonomous driving profitability and it'll take Waymo years before it can be profitable. And this is why I think the places like ARK who loves to give so much weight into Tesla's valuation to robotaxi or ridesharing is wrong. In theory, robotaxies will change the world. In practice, there's a whole bunch of hurdles to overcome considering the ride sharing business is operationally expensive and people in general either fear them or don't feel like there's a need for them.

This is why I think Tesla is doing this right from a profitability standpoint. The margins are high for FSD with interventions, making it the coolest driver assist software around, and it'll slowly work toward FSD without interventions while giving people time to adjust/get comfortable with AV. From the article below, people has more trust in AV after they have taken the first ride. People will indeed trust tesla FSD after we are in the end of the edge cases because they have rode in one for years using it.

So we will see just how profitable robotaxies can be because so far Uber haven't turned a profit with just the app and Waymo is not even close to profitability with a few hundred rides a week.

In a patch of Arizona, everyone knows Waymo. But few use it.

The Alphabet subsidiary rolled out a fully driverless robotaxi service in late 2020, but it has yet to catch on among locals

www.morningbrew.com

 

[mltv]

Weekend OT: I think the reaction to TeslaBot has been surprisingly muted, even amongst most Tesla Bulls. Humanoid robotics I think is potentially a massive new market in a wide variety of areas with a multitude of use cases across every sector of society: industrial, commercial, retail, consumer & military - and virtually no other company is dedicating resources to it as they don’t have the AI software team to make a humanoid robot useful. It’s a massive blue ocean opportunity.

I increased my long term projected value of Tesla considerably post AI day, as I now see 4 clear “legs on the stool” in terms of primary Tesla revenue drivers:

- Automotive
- Energy
- Services/other
- Robotics

(I’m hoping Boring company and Housing get added as two more “legs“ as well in future)

I reserve my excitement until it’s closer to release. I have a suspicion that the wait will be longer than the Roadster 2.0 after unveiled.

 

[jbcarioca]

My prediction is first Model 2 factories will be India, China, and an Eastern European neighbor to Germany.

India would be well on their way to a Tesla factory were it not for the incredible political clout of Tata.

I would not rule out model 2 production in Berlin. To almost everyone I know, the standard range tesla model 3 is way, way too expensive for them to consider as their next car, and I mainly talk to affluent office workers in the SW of England. You don't need to be selling to people in India or Eastern Europe to find a huge market for a cheaper Tesla.
A £25,000 Tesla would sell like crazy in the UK. Not many people have the money to buy a new model 3. Not even the standard range one, not even considering fuel and maintenance savings.

Of course, it *might* be cheaper to make a model 2 in eastern Europe/India and ship it to the UK/France/Germany, but who knows what the situation regarding transport costs and tariffs etc will be? And the cheaper the car, the higher the portion of its cost represented by transport costs to the customer.

…

Once there are both China-designed and German-designed models there will almost certainly be factories ( maybe not all ‘giga’) in Eastern or Southern Europe, Mexico and/or Brazil plus somewhere in Asia probably two or so. Most of us have assumed that all will be huge. However, once the vehicles are smaller (not all cheaper, probably, remember ‘hot hatch’) nearly all large auto markets become plausible. Then import duties and non-tariff barriers suddenly become major impediments to growth, plus the transportation issue.

All that ignores all the Superchargers, solar roofs, storage products that will be probably growing faster than pure automotive products. Those will happen with less fanfare, perhaps. China is producing Superchargers, as we know. I’ll happily wager that Energy products of some kind will be produced in every major country within the next five years.

Once Austin and Berlin are up and producing at scale those will grow just as Shanghai is growing. It will not be just two or three new, factories following, it will be a minimum of four, perhaps more. The real impediments to that growth will be the supply chains and national politics. Supply chain always includes people!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Are you talking about what was thought to be the Model 2 factory? If so, then I understand that land purchase never went through. Would love to be corrected on that.

It's not that simple in China. No one can purchase land, its only leased from the Government (typically for 50 or 100 years). Government owns all the land in China. Reports of the "sale" and the "cancellation of the sale" over the Spring were similarly confused by Western media.

More important is the planning documents. The Shanghai Regional planning council has designated land for Tesla future development near the existing Giga Shanghai parcel. There were several separate bursts of speculation in Spring 2021: (buckle up, this is a long one or just skip to the end for a City Planning Map)

February:
Tesla to produce $25K car as early as 2022 in Gigafactory Shanghai: report (teslarati.com)
Tesla China-Designed New Model from Giga Shanghai Is Moving Forward, G (tesmanian.com)
Tesla accelerates Giga Shanghai's expansion as news of $25k EV heat up

March:
Shanghai is authorizing 114 acres for "New Energy Vehicles Whole-Vehicle Manufacturing"
Rumor: Tesla May Have Acquired a Large Piece of Land Near Giga Shangha
Tesla Giga Shanghai poised for more expansion with likely new land acquisition

WuWa (Shanghai drone operator) has been looking around for the new factory location:
Find a new Tesla factory location \ Tesla giga shanghai | Youtube Mar 11, 2021
#285 #Teslashanghai\The new factory of the future？\4K | Youtube Apr 6, 2021

Then there was this tweet on April 7, 2021:

Umbisam on Twitter: "BREAKING - $TSLA Shanghai Phase 3 Appears To Be Much Larger Than To Date Thought. Land Levelling Is Now Also On Going On The Adjacent East Site. Possibly, Auction 460k m2 Site Withheld To Include More Land ? Becoming More Interesting By The Day. https://t.co/lH1fCP6AgX" / Twitter

Here is the media report that questioned the landbuy (sic), a Reuters article written in their typical motivated reporting style: May 11, 2021
EXCLUSIVE Tesla puts brake on Shanghai land buy as U.S.-China tensions weigh - sources

This media report was refuted 4 days later by a local Tesla supporter: May 15, 2021
Kelvin Yang on Twitter: "City planning model reveals reserved land for Giga Shanghai https://t.co/mvtK7NjQ9d" / Twitter

A City Planning Model In Shanghai Reveals Land Reserved For Tesla Giga Shanghai | Cleantechnica May 16, 2021

"The article, published by 36Kr, noted that there is longer-term planning going on at Giga Shanghai. Around 2 kilometers south of Tesla’s factory on Zhengija Road is a 460,000 square meter piece of factory land that is reserved for Tesla in Lingang."​

​

(Ed. Note: Google translate link to auto-time.36kr.com article published May 6, 2021: Titled "Those talents, hot money and new cars flocking to Shanghai")​

SUMMARY:

There are continuous attempts in the media to deny Tesla's plans and progress, other attempts to claim an early Model 2 reveal, and imminent production. This latest tactic is an attempt to raise false expectations, and create a miss when the rumor is exposed.

Except, NO main stream media has access to any more information than you or I. Just play attention to what Elon has said in past conference calls, AGMs, and other special events. That's what will happen, as soon as Tesla can make it happen (not everything is known in advance of embarking on such an enterprise).

TL;dr HODL

Cheers!

 

[FS_FRA]

You have NO idea how many baby sand dragons were displaced in Shanghai, nor the huge number of bats that have had to adjust to the upheaval of one of their main foraging sites in Austin. The stress caused to these populations of sentient species would never happen in Germany!

It’s funny how most of us here are investing in THE company making the transition to sustainability their primary goal - yet when faced with laws in a sovereign country that are in place to protect endangered species of animals, or plants, or force you to prove sustainable use of scarce resources, everyone is happy to at best joke about it or at worst suggests that Tesla should be given special allowance to ignore these laws.
Yes, it’s frustrating to me too that the pace of large project construction in Germany is hindered by law, procedures and frivolous objections by groups funded by lobbyists.

But please, let’s stay objective.

 

[FS_FRA]

I think the question is: Is Tesla just delaying the remaining ~3/4 of the GigaBerlin plan, or are they fed up and have essentially cancelled it and will be looking for a second European location to build the remaining capacity?

Never say never, but I think Tesla are beyond the point of no return in putting 100% of GigaBerlin into operation.
Aside from the fact that they have been given huge tax incentives, subsidies and grants from Germany and the EU, as well as obvious support from the German government (despite the fact that it’s an election year), do you really think Tesla is going to drop their project to stick it to German ICE, in their own backyard?

There is another reason Tesla is located in Germany, and not a “cheaper, less complicated” (hahahaha - the “east” is neither cheap nor less complicated, unless you’re corrupt): Talent.

Tesla needs to attract the highest talent to work at Giga, and being located in Germany ensures you have access to the huge talent pool in German automotive, as well as attracting Talent from elsewhere.

 

[MC3OZ]

Never say never, but I think Tesla are beyond the point of no return in putting 100% of GigaBerlin into operation.
Aside from the fact that they have been given huge tax incentives, subsidies and grants from Germany and the EU, as well as obvious support from the German government (despite the fact that it’s an election year), do you really think Tesla is going to drop their project to stick it to German ICE, in their own backyard?

There is another reason Tesla is located in Germany, and not a “cheaper, less complicated” (hahahaha - the “east” is neither cheap nor less complicated, unless you’re corrupt): Talent.

Tesla needs to attract the highest talent to work at Giga, and being located in Germany ensures you have access to the huge talent pool in German automotive, as well as attracting Talent from elsewhere.

I agree...

The next European factory may be in a different country, but it was important that the first factory was in Germany..

They will grind through the approvals process, it slower than most of us are used to, but it is probably normal for a German construction process.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Weekend OT: I think the reaction to TeslaBot has been surprisingly muted, even amongst most Tesla Bulls. Humanoid robotics I think is potentially a massive new market in a wide variety of areas with a multitude of use cases across every sector of society: industrial, commercial, retail, consumer & military - and virtually no other company is dedicating resources to it as they don’t have the AI software team to make a humanoid robot useful. It’s a massive blue ocean opportunity.

I increased my long term projected value of Tesla considerably post AI day, as I now see 4 clear “legs on the stool” in terms of primary Tesla revenue drivers:

- Automotive
- Energy
- Services/other
- Robotics

(I’m hoping Boring company and Housing get added as two more “legs“ as well in future)

There was a ton of hyped up speculation straight after AI day. I think many see the opportunity as gigantic, however it's also pretty clear that this won't be a product for 3+ years at best. There's also wide error bars on any attempts to model the impact of TeslaBot as we have no idea of what the capabilities will be for v1.

I mentioned in an earlier post that I could speculate the use of 10s of these robots just in my own family's small business - and extrapolating out to the rest of the world = a huge market for Tesla.

 

[CorneliusXX]

It’s funny how most of us here are investing in THE company making the transition to sustainability their primary goal - yet when faced with laws in a sovereign country that are in place to protect endangered species of animals, or plants, or force you to prove sustainable use of scarce resources, everyone is happy to at best joke about it or at worst suggests that Tesla should be given special allowance to ignore these laws.
Yes, it’s frustrating to me too that the pace of large project construction in Germany is hindered by law, procedures and frivolous objections by groups funded by lobbyists.

But please, let’s stay objective.

It's not the intent of the regulations people have disagreements with, it's their design/implementation. Small design changes lead to months long public consultations which is resulting in real delays for a company like Tesla that iterates rapidly.

As you say, it also appears that various environmental groups are hijacking these regulations to raise spurious issues to further slow Tesla down - which again points to poor design rather than poor intent.

 

[CorneliusXX]

You're off by a year: "production hell" was 2018H1, whereas 2019H1 was "logistics hell" as Tesla established its European product pipeline.

2020H1 was "covid hell", and 2021H1 was "hell has no Burry like a TSLA scorned..."

Time flies, wot?

Cheers!

When it's put like that it sounds like we are going around in circles.

 

[Drezil]

I agree...

The next European factory may be in a different country, but it was important that the first factory was in Germany..

They will grind through the approvals process, it slower than most of us are used to, but it is probably normal for a German construction process.

The speed is NOT normal for a German construction process.
Other companies with plans now usually say: we want X, but please "tesla-fast".
Such buildings usually take 3-5 years to erect. Or longer.

 

[CorneliusXX]

...to add on:

Seems super risky - it's like if Tesla had IPO'd with their first Roadster deliveries. Though, they're guiding like as if Rivian is far enough along like they're releasing their version of the Model S.

I agree the price is very high, but there are substantial differences to when Tesla went public.

• EV's are proven and accepted in the market in a way that didn't exist when Tesla had its IPO - de-risking demand issues
• Rivian has amazing backing from Amazon - enough demand to last years for their vans, a monetary investment Amazon will want to protect, likely some software/compute/AI support that could only be beaten by Tesla.
• Ford backing FWIW - some people will likely think that de-risks Rivian's ability to scale manufacturing.
• Even though Rivian hasn't produced a vehicle, they do have a much larger factory under development (in terms of designed manufacturing capacity) than Tesla had at the same time and is due to start production imminently.
• Rivian is copying the Tesla's good ideas very closely (in house EV charging network, in house cell manufacturing, their second factory is apparently going to copy Tesla's model of a single integrated building from cells to finished product). Legacy OEM's and most other EV startups are not. These ideas have already proven to be valuable via Tesla. The ideas of a gigafactory (neither battery nor vehicle production), in house charging network, etc. didn't exist when Tesla IPO'd.
• Rivian have a giant pile of money and will be swimming in cash after the IPO - meaning they should be able to get to production without going cap in had back to the market. This reduces execution risk.

Don't get me wrong, Rivian is still hugely risky and overvalued compared to Tesla as they haven't proven their manufacturing chops. But they have a working product that has received substantial demand and favourable reviews.

Tesla took 2 years to launch the Model S after IPO, and at the time of IPO they were basically hand building the roadster. The R1T is closer to the Model S in that it is a ground up designed EV rather than a converted ICE chassis like the roadster. It is also closer to production start (although there have been delays on this front).

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

• Even though Rivian hasn't produced a vehicle, they do have a much larger factory under development (in terms of designed manufacturing capacity) than Tesla had at the same time and is due to start production imminently.

I see this as TERRIBLE, not a plus point. It doesn't matter who they have spoken to, or how closely they watched Tesla, the idea that they will get their first factory right is negligible. This is stuff is obviously hideously complicated. Jumping right in there to build a huge factory before you have the experience of doing smaller production runs feels like asking for trouble.

I really want rivian to do well, and may pick up some shares at some future point, once they have vehicles in the market and they are proven reliable, but its a big risk right now, and the valuation is comical. I do feel a lot of the valuation for smaller EV companies is from people who see it as a way to short tesla or hedge their bets on tesla.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Berlin wasn't scaled back because of permits or environmental concerns, it was the German govt waiting for Tesla to break ground and then immediately trying to cut Tesla out of their domestic EV subsidies.

I must have missed the memo where it was announced that Berlin has been scaled back.

If you are figuring this because they haven't started all the buildings from the original drawings yet you are making a mistake.

Austin was also supposed to be 2 million cars or so. The current building is not close to be able to build that many. If they are further along than Berlin why haven't they started on the next phase if Berlin is supposed to have?

Actually, the cathode building site has been sitting inactive for what? Two months now. Nothing happening. The supposed SpaceX building on the other side of the highway has been going nowhere for 3-4 months now. If you want to make a conclusion of what's happening in Berlin from not starting buildings that were never supposed to have started yet what conclusions should you make from that?

Both factories are doing fine. Not sure why some of you have to make this into some kind of Olympic event.