Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[heltok]

Elon tweeted large pouch cells are dangerous. . This is as evident by the GM Bolt recall due to fire and explosion. I’m not sure how many OEMs are using this form factor but perhaps many.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1433670656315600919

Like I have said before, quoting Linus Torvalds:
Those who don’t understand Teslas are condemned to reimplement Teslas poorly

Which we again see here. If you don’t understand exactly why Tesla did x many years ago, you will find out in the future… Now they see why Tesla did the hard thing and went cylindrical cells rather than pouch. Like they saw with Autopilot hardware and OTA on every car, with supercharging network, with inhouse batteries… Which they will see with Radar, 4D labeling, gigacasting etc.

 

[Baumisch]

I can see Tesla charging €0.59-€0.79 / kWh (compared with SuC €0.40 for Teslas) as do the other high-speed providers such as Ionity or Fastned

German Pespective here - but we have the highest kwh prices worldwide anyway - so:

The latest overview of prices in Germany for all Companies is here, sorry for german, but should be understandable still:

"Tarif OHNE Fixkosten" means w/o subscription
"Tarif MIT Fixkosten" means with subscription charges.

The important part is the last line with EnBW offering a monthly subscription of 5,99€ for low fees per kwh below Tesla current rates in Germany.

So imho Tesla can either offer non subscription cost model with slightly higher prices per kwh or a 5-10€/month subscription with same costs as currently around 40ct/kwh.

I would personally prefer to having a subscription model of 9,99€/month with the same costs as Tesla owners per kwh - this would help Tesla build out the network and keep pricing-structure simple for all parties - I would maybe ad a sign-up fee around 20€ that gets waived if you subscribe to a 12 or 24 month term contract.

 

[nativewolf]

Like I have said before, quoting Linus Torvalds:
Those who don’t understand Teslas are condemned to reimplement Teslas poorly

Which we again see here. If you don’t understand exactly why Tesla did x many years ago, you will find out in the future… Now they see why Tesla did the hard thing and went cylindrical cells rather than pouch. Like they saw with Autopilot hardware and OTA on every car, with supercharging network, with inhouse batteries… Which they will see with Radar, 4D labeling, gigacasting etc.

Elon tweeted large pouch cells are dangerous. . This is as evident by the GM Bolt recall due to fire and explosion. I’m not sure how many OEMs are using this form factor but perhaps many.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1433670656315600919

Quote from article below: “General Motors said it could cost as much as $1.8 billion.

At the time, GM had offered to replace all the battery cells in recalled cars, but that effort has been paused as the company worries that its battery supplier, LG, can't make "defect-free" products.”

I take this to imply GM kind of agree that large pouch cells may be inherently dangerous.

Watch as a recalled Chevy Bolt bursts into flames in a parking lot overnight

The battery fire destroyed the Bolt EV, and damaged a nearby Maserati and Hyundai.

mashable.com

Don't tell some posters that Elon says large pouch are dangerous. They will tell you it is dendrites or x, or y. In the meantime pouches are failing in every application ...constantly. I'm not even an engineer and I think I was able to draw that correlation and make the conclusion that all that GM investment in a large pouch battery form...is problematic. Typical GM

 

[nativewolf]

Well its better than a musical.

My god that is so true...So true

 

[samppa]

German Pespective here - but we have the highest kwh prices worldwide anyway - so:

The latest overview of prices in Germany for all Companies is here, sorry for german, but should be understandable still:

"Tarif OHNE Fixkosten" means w/o subscription
"Tarif MIT Fixkosten" means with subscription charges.

The important part is the last line with EnBW offering a monthly subscription of 5,99€ for low fees per kwh below Tesla current rates in Germany.

So imho Tesla can either offer non subscription cost model with slightly higher prices per kwh or a 5-10€/month subscription with same costs as currently around 40ct/kwh.

I would personally prefer to having a subscription model of 9,99€/month with the same costs as Tesla owners per kwh - this would help Tesla build out the network and keep pricing-structure simple for all parties - I would maybe ad a sign-up fee around 20€ that gets waived if you subscribe to a 12 or 24 month term contract.

Does Lidl provide free ccs charging in Germany?
They do here.. only 50kw max though.

Looks like you have the same mess as we do here.. price depends on charger and what app you use and how you use, and which position the moon happens to be at etc..
3rd party charging is a big mess.

 

[Boomer19]

Early assignment of 490C. Bullish?

Not sure if anyone came across something similar and posted here in the last several days, sharing FWIW.

I had Sep-17-2021 490C sold, IBKR assigned and took my shares.
Fortunately, most of those shares were bought this year in 6xx-7xx range.
There's more than 2 weeks to expiry, and 490C is not too deep ITM, but still someone needed shares. Maybe this is bullish?
If this information is helpful, you are welcome

In case you are wondering if I chose to give away shares instead of buying the call back, when you have calls sold and they get ITM, IBKR doesn't send you a notification of assignment prior to assignment, they send a notification at the end of the day, after your shares get assigned on that day.
Given an opportunity, I would've bought back those calls sold.

@Artful Dodger @generalenthu @Papafox @Curt Renz @bxr140

the net assignment is a result of the net exercises across participants at OCC, which is discovered via EOD processing. the exercise which you were assigned against may not have originated at IBKR, which is why it’s difficult to notify anyone in that scenario.

 

[nativewolf]

Like the auto industry, I too am a massive consumer of chips.

2 lbs / week x 52 weeks / year x 15 years = 1560 lbs of pure chocolate bliss.

Maybe I should open my own fab to reduce costs...

I have a couple of forestry friends in Ghana. We'll hook you up.

 

[The Accountant]

A Sep 16, 2022 $500 Call is priced at $285. I usually write puts/calls but this was too much of a bargain so I bought 2.

What are your thoughts on multiples of tech company shares, TSLA particularly, once it's clear that interest rates will start to go up soon. Likely in 1H 2022?

If US interest rates rise in 2022, then I believe Tech Stock multiples will drop; however, TSLA is at a different growth trajectory than most big cap tech stocks.
So the decrease in multiple for TSLA would mean a decrease in stock price from say $1,500 to $1,200 for example. To buy a Sep 2022 $500 call at $285, I have to believe that TSLA will be above $785 by Sep 2022 regardless of macro environment. I'm comfortable with that. If fact, my plan is to sell the Call by Q1 2022.
Not investment advice . . .I rarely buy calls and with money I can afford to lose.

 

[Tslynk67]

If US interest rates rise in 2022, then I believe Tech Stock multiples will drop; however, TSLA is at a different growth trajectory than most big cap tech stocks.
So the decrease in multiple for TSLA would mean a decrease in stock price from say $1,500 to $1,200 for example. To buy a Sep 2022 $500 call at $285, I have to believe that TSLA will be above $785 by Sep 2022 regardless of macro environment. I'm comfortable with that. If fact, my plan is to sell the Call by Q1 2022.
Not investment advice . . .I rarely buy calls and with money I can afford to lose.

And between now and selling it, you could sell covered calls against it, $2-3 per week premium would get your money back regardless of the stock price movements

 

[Mengy]

The model 2 / $25k car wont be called model 2

If the compact Tesla isn't called the Model 2 then it really needs to be called the Tesla Q. That would be the ultimate troll, naming Tesla's largest volume car after the haters!

 

[The Accountant]

Umm - Did Anyone Notice What's Happening in Europe?
For the countries where August data is available thus far, deliveries for the first 2 months are up 55% over Q2's first 2 months.
We are still missing Germany and the UK (2 of the largest EU markets); I expect the 55% growth to drop when these 2 markets report but the trend looks great so far.
Model Y is driving much of this.

Link to the data:

Wiki - Tesla Europe Registration Stats

This wiki belongs to the thread EU Market situation and outlook. Click HERE (CTRL-click to open in new tab) to add new data using a Google form. Any forum member can contribute. We encourage you to do so! Your entry will appear after the data is double-checked by other volunteers. If the data...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[Knightshade]

I'm sorry, but isn't all this info coming from Sawyer Merritt, an attention whore who's been wrong more often than he is right? Some of this news sounds like complete nonsense (no steering wheel or pedals for Model 2)

Elon specifically mentioned ditching the wheel in general back on Autonomy day so that's not nonsense at all- it's something we've been explicitly told, over 2 years ago, that the CEO wants to do- including offering to remove it from cars that already have it eventually. Being forever optimistic about FSD being nearly done it's entirely surprising he'd want to do it for a future model too, especially the one most likely to be tagged for general RT use.

Tesla unveils car design without a steering wheel, coming within 2 years, says Elon Musk

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that the automaker will deliver a car without a steering wheel within 2 years –...

electrek.co

 

[Singuy]

Elon Musk: 'This is craziest month of deliveries Tesla (TSLA) will ever have'

Elon Musk told Tesla (TSLA) employees that “this is the craziest month of deliveries Tesla will ever have.” The CEO...

electrek.co

 

[lascavarian]

Like I have said before, quoting Linus Torvalds:
Those who don’t understand Teslas are condemned to reimplement Teslas poorly

Which we again see here. If you don’t understand exactly why Tesla did x many years ago, you will find out in the future… Now they see why Tesla did the hard thing and went cylindrical cells rather than pouch. Like they saw with Autopilot hardware and OTA on every car, with supercharging network, with inhouse batteries… Which they will see with Radar, 4D labeling, gigacasting etc.

The great thing about this sentiment is that every quarter we get affirmation of it’s correctness. The amazing success of first principal thinking is born out in the amazing economy of being less wrong repeatedly. It is inspiring and optimistic in a world that needs just that.

 

[lascavarian]

BTW GM is enacting temporary shutdowns of Silverado production.

 

[1101011]

OT

It's rare that I encounter another person with the same attitude and investment strategy that I have followed- buy early and hold.
But this morning's visit with this guy, while supercharging was quite gratifying.

Safe travels.

 

[ZachF]

Think about it. Someone who can barely afford a $25k car is going to pay $10k+ for FSD? No way.

Honestly, I think there should be different prices for FSD for different models, because being driven around in a Model S/X is a much more comfortable/luxurious experience than being driven around in a bare-bones Model 2.

 

[ZachF]

Don't tell some posters that Elon says large pouch are dangerous. They will tell you it is dendrites or x, or y. In the meantime pouches are failing in every application ...constantly. I'm not even an engineer and I think I was able to draw that correlation and make the conclusion that all that GM investment in a large pouch battery form...is problematic. Typical GM

Which EVs use pouch cells? Do we have a list?

 

[Drezil]

Does Lidl provide free ccs charging in Germany?
They do here.. only 50kw max though.

Yes, but only during opening hours and usually just 1 charger which is always full

 

[Knightshade]

Which EVs use pouch cells? Do we have a list?

Are Pouch Cells the Future? : Part 1

The age of the electric vehicles and lithium ion batteries are here, and they have underlined their plan to stick around for quite some time. Every automotive company is going all in, and this has also opened up opportunities for a lot of start-ups to flourish.

www.linkedin.com

Claims they're used in the iPace, Taycan, etron, Bolt, Kona, and Leaf.
Dunno if that's accurate or complete though.