Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mltv]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1433717218865401857

Free advertising - nice. Wondering if they sell these for Halloween

 

[hacer]

Don't tell some posters that Elon says large pouch are dangerous. They will tell you it is dendrites or x, or y. In the meantime pouches are failing in every application ...constantly. I'm not even an engineer and I think I was able to draw that correlation and make the conclusion that all that GM investment in a large pouch battery form...is problematic. Typical GM

Reminds me of this exchange I had over 3 years ago about the advantage of cylindrical cells. And check the very next response in that thread! I called in in my first message on the subject:

I stand corrected. I was working from the post I was replying to that said that BWM buys packs. I should have done some research.

Those "cells" BMW starts with in the video could be battery packs comprised of many parallel pouch cells or just really huge prismatic cells. Building a battery pack from large prismatic cells is much simpler than building a pack from the many cylindrical cells that Tesla uses. I don't think any other car maker is using cylindrical cells, but I believe that we will see in the future that Tesla made the right decision while others chose the easy path that will be much more costly in the long run (not just in terms of dollars). Time will tell.

 

[hacer]

the net assignment is a result of the net exercises across participants at OCC, which is discovered via EOD processing. the exercise which you were assigned against may not have originated at IBKR, which is why it’s difficult to notify anyone in that scenario.

It is not just difficult, it is impossible. Which contract seller is assigned is chosen randomly by the OCC and once chosen, it is a done deal. Nobody will ever be told "unless you buy back you will be assigned." It doesn't work that way. If anyone ever did get such "advanced" notice, it would be a crime.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Huge if true:

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Oh heavens....

Climate NGOs in Germany threaten legal action against VW, Daimler, BMW

Greenpeace and German environmental NGO Deutsche Umwelthilfe (DUH) will take legal action against Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE), BMW , Daimler's Mercedes-Benz , and gas and oil firm Wintershall Dea (WINT.UL)if they do not step up their policies to tackle climate change, they said on Friday.

www.reuters.com

 

[Buckminster]

Germany now added. Waiting on the UK:

View attachment 704663

Jeez - I'm working on it! Might need a bigger calculator...

In all seriousness, UK may not be as stellar as some - we don't yet have the MY.

 

[PokerFJÆS]

I sold my first puts. Maybe the last ones too. If there are people betting against Tesla, I might as well take them up on the bet, so I thought. So two weeks ago I sold two $620 puts expiring today. I immediately made the grand sum of $400, and I'd of course only lose in the unlikely case the stock price would end up under $620. However, if the stock price were to crater to, say, $520 it would either cost me 2x$100x$100=$20k, or (preferably not) I'd have to buy 200 shares at $620 ($124k) and wait for the price to recover. Being the betting man, I try to calculate the expected value of the bet. If it were as simple as a either a $400 win vs a $20k risk, it would be a good bet if the $520 scenario had less than ~2% likelihood. Over a two week period, I think that's reasonable though my expected value would obviously be less than $400. However, I'd really have to integrate all the probabilities of all stock price scenarios from $0 to $620, a hopeless task. All in all, a bit too much like picking pennies in front of a slow steamroller.

 

[UltradoomY]

I sold my first puts. Maybe the last ones too. If there are people betting against Tesla, I might as well take them up on the bet, so I thought. So two weeks ago I sold two $620 puts expiring today. I immediately made the grand sum of $400, and I'd of course only lose in the unlikely case the stock price would end up under $620. However, if the stock price were to crater to, say, $520 it would either cost me 2x$100x$100=$20k, or (preferably not) I'd have to buy 200 shares at $620 ($124k) and wait for the price to recover. Being the betting man, I try to calculate the expected value of the bet. If it were as simple as a either a $400 win vs a $20k risk, it would be a good bet if the $520 scenario had less than ~2% likelihood. Over a two week period, I think that's reasonable though my expected value would obviously be less than $400. However, I'd really have to integrate all the probabilities of all stock price scenarios from $0 to $620, a hopeless task. All in all, a bit too much like picking pennies in front of a slow steamroller.

I think that would be picking up the pennies behind the steamroller if you sold puts and believe we are heading up!

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

Hopefully Ap and FSD are developed and validated with a nice clean process that should stand scrutiny, I would be upset otherwise.

How many people do you think there are in the US that understand the methods and processes used by Tesla (or Waymo or Mobileye or....) to the extent that they are able to validate if they are appropriate?

It seems highly unlikely that NHTSA will try to undertake any development methods/process based analysis because the NHTSA staff will not include any of the people with the relevant skills.

 

[hacer]

I sold my first puts. Maybe the last ones too. If there are people betting against Tesla, I might as well take them up on the bet, so I thought. So two weeks ago I sold two $620 puts expiring today. I immediately made the grand sum of $400, and I'd of course only lose in the unlikely case the stock price would end up under $620. However, if the stock price were to crater to, say, $520 it would either cost me 2x$100x$100=$20k, or (preferably not) I'd have to buy 200 shares at $620 ($124k) and wait for the price to recover. Being the betting man, I try to calculate the expected value of the bet. If it were as simple as a either a $400 win vs a $20k risk, it would be a good bet if the $520 scenario had less than ~2% likelihood. Over a two week period, I think that's reasonable though my expected value would obviously be less than $400. However, I'd really have to integrate all the probabilities of all stock price scenarios from $0 to $620, a hopeless task. All in all, a bit too much like picking pennies in front of a slow steamroller.

So you would be afraid then to put in a GTC order to buy TSLA at $620. I guess it's unlikely you'll ever be buying TSLA in the future then.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

What would a Friday before a weekend be without some ridiculousness from the class clown:

 

[Knightshade]

What would a Friday before a weekend be without some ridiculousness from the class clown:

View attachment 704787

What's even better is Tipranks replied to point out Gordo was lying.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1433339438092935175

 

[lascavarian]

Two hosts chatting on Powerlunch CNBC. One has a Tesla and other is thinking of dumping her minivan and getting Tesla and solar and never buying gas again. Tesla owner says just went on a long trip and it did take some planning to charge so requires some effort still. Confirms electricity is cheaper than gas. Says would need power wall in addition to panels. Then adds less maintenance and no oil changes. Then says “We’ll talk offline”.

 

[Knightshade]

I sold my first puts. Maybe the last ones too. If there are people betting against Tesla, I might as well take them up on the bet, so I thought. So two weeks ago I sold two $620 puts expiring today. I immediately made the grand sum of $400, and I'd of course only lose in the unlikely case the stock price would end up under $620. However, if the stock price were to crater to, say, $520 it would either cost me 2x$100x$100=$20k, or (preferably not) I'd have to buy 200 shares at $620 ($124k) and wait for the price to recover. Being the betting man, I try to calculate the expected value of the bet. If it were as simple as a either a $400 win vs a $20k risk, it would be a good bet if the $520 scenario had less than ~2% likelihood. Over a two week period, I think that's reasonable though my expected value would obviously be less than $400. However, I'd really have to integrate all the probabilities of all stock price scenarios from $0 to $620, a hopeless task. All in all, a bit too much like picking pennies in front of a slow steamroller.

You have more choices than that- you could just roll the puts before close on Friday for example- usually you can keep rolling, for additional credits, either until the stock rebounds, or until you can via rolling out and down, move the puts out of the money. There's other more complex things you can do to manage such positions too.

The steamroller only gets you if you stand still and let it.

There's several high quality threads elsewhere in the TSLA Investor Discussions forum area if you want to learn more on options- for example:

Wiki - Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

I decided to create this thread as a more focused variation of the Option Trading and Advice thread, with that focus on the option strategy known as The Wheel. The thing to understand up front - I'm not a financial advisor, nor am I particularly expert in options trading. So far my experience...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[M|S|M MYP]

https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1LyGBdWPORjxN

Ok....i promise this is the last Gordo post for the day.....but please everyone fast forward to 2:41 of the video and tell me he did not just say what he just said clearly the Hyundai ICONIC 5....OMG this dude is so delusional.

 

[BornToFly]

https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1LyGBdWPORjxN

Ok....i promise this is the last Gordo post for the day.....but please everyone fast forward to 2:41 of the video and tell me he did not just say what he just said

I think you need a perma-ban for making me watch that garbage....

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I think you need a perma-ban for making me watch that garbage....

Come on...you know it was funny when the host started to cut Gordo off!! "Gordon....Gordon......!!!!"

 

[Artful Dodger]

For those who missed Sawyers retraction (4 hrs later) on his CT 'delay' tweet:

Sawyer Merritt on Twitter: "I want to retract part of the CT statement. The Cybertruck isn't "delayed". The CT just has a more definitive timeline. Tesla stated weeks ago that CT prod had been moved to 2022. Elon confirmed that. Makes sense that volume prod would be in 2023. It's a new vehicle technology." / Twitter​

Anyone else following Piedmont Lithium in North Carolina? IMO, that's likely why construction was paused on the Lithium Hydroxide plant at Giga Texas months ago.

NC Mine Delay Could Affect Tesla's 2022–2023 Lithium Supply

Piedmont Lithium said it would delay first shipments of lithium chemicals to Tesla as it has yet to submit its mining permit application

insideevs.com

No matter, if N. Carolina is worried about road dust, Tesla will source their lithium elsewhere.

Cheers!

 

[ZeApelido]

I sold my first puts. Maybe the last ones too. If there are people betting against Tesla, I might as well take them up on the bet, so I thought. So two weeks ago I sold two $620 puts expiring today. I immediately made the grand sum of $400, and I'd of course only lose in the unlikely case the stock price would end up under $620. However, if the stock price were to crater to, say, $520 it would either cost me 2x$100x$100=$20k, or (preferably not) I'd have to buy 200 shares at $620 ($124k) and wait for the price to recover. Being the betting man, I try to calculate the expected value of the bet. If it were as simple as a either a $400 win vs a $20k risk, it would be a good bet if the $520 scenario had less than ~2% likelihood. Over a two week period, I think that's reasonable though my expected value would obviously be less than $400. However, I'd really have to integrate all the probabilities of all stock price scenarios from $0 to $620, a hopeless task. All in all, a bit too much like picking pennies in front of a slow steamroller.

I've sold long dated puts everytime Tesla has dipped down around 600.

Those trades already worth ~50k and should probably be worth 150k as long as Tesla stays above 650 in a year.

 

[vwman111]

I sold my first puts. Maybe the last ones too. If there are people betting against Tesla, I might as well take them up on the bet, so I thought. So two weeks ago I sold two $620 puts expiring today. I immediately made the grand sum of $400, and I'd of course only lose in the unlikely case the stock price would end up under $620. However, if the stock price were to crater to, say, $520 it would either cost me 2x$100x$100=$20k, or (preferably not) I'd have to buy 200 shares at $620 ($124k) and wait for the price to recover. Being the betting man, I try to calculate the expected value of the bet. If it were as simple as a either a $400 win vs a $20k risk, it would be a good bet if the $520 scenario had less than ~2% likelihood. Over a two week period, I think that's reasonable though my expected value would obviously be less than $400. However, I'd really have to integrate all the probabilities of all stock price scenarios from $0 to $620, a hopeless task. All in all, a bit too much like picking pennies in front of a slow steamroller.

Head over to the wheel section...tons of valuable info on selling premium.