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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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That would really be cool if it made it to production:

I wonder if the laser window cleaner invention is intended mainly or only to clean the glass over the FSD cameras (not that I want to restart the general "OMG, how will they keep the cameras clean?" discussion). Notice in the diagram "Fig 2B" that the side camera behind the front wheel well is marked out with the labels "216" and "218D."

The lasers might be able to use higher power if they weren’t aimed at people or if people weren’t in the car when they were being used.
 
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So now that we have a pretty clear idea of Giga China P/D for Q3, the big mystery to me is Fremont.

This mainly centers around the battery packs being brought in from China. Fremont has always been below it's actual maximum capacity due to battery constraints. It's capable of doing 500k between the 3/Y, but never reaches that actual rate on a quarterly basis. I am expecting Fremont to increase it's 3/Y production from Q2 thanks to those imported battery packs (more Nevada produced packs are going into the Y).

We also know that since Tesla is bringing in battery packs from China for the 3 and that Giga Nevada is going max production of 2170 battery packs (thanks to Carson's continual updates), chips are NOT the limiting factor for Fremont actually getting to it's production capacity limit.

How much of an increase is hard to say. These MIC battery pack Model 3's are going straight into inventory instead of going to people with orders because of the very slight range difference. And Tesla has been continually replenishing inventory of these MIC battery pack Model 3's. Will it add only like 1-2k of P/D for Q3? Maybe 5,000 P/D difference? 10,000....possible. It's just impossible to say unless someone is literally tracking the inventory every hour of every day.

I'm now expecting 240k P/D for Q3 thanks to the ramp at Giga China combined with 10k of Model S. These MIC battery pack Model 3's though could be a surprise to production/deliveries for Q3. I mean, 250k isn't impossible if Fremont actually produces much closer to it's actual capacity maximum for 3/Y.
 
I’m usually skeptical about conspiracies, but it sure looks to me like some big money is selling, early in the week, weekly expiring calls while they pump up the SP. Then, midweek, they put selling pressure on the SP to make those calls worthless.

And it’s not just TSLA. It’s on a basket of stocks that have high weekly call volumes. That’s maybe why the broader market can tank as it did today.

It’s a highly profitable strategy…until it blows up on them, which it might have today with the China production report, but they managed to contain the fallout today, probably at a steep cost. The smarter players of this strategy probably know it’s about time to switch to the other side of the trade as to TSLA, as it gets close to Q3 reporting.
 
I wonder if the laser window cleaner invention is intended mainly or only to clean the glass over the FSD cameras (not that I want to restart the general "OMG, how will they keep the cameras clean?" discussion). Notice in the diagram "Fig 2B" that the side camera behind the front wheel well is marked out with the labels "216" and "218D."

The lasers might be able to use higher power if they weren’t aimed at people or if people weren’t in the car when they were being used.

I thought it was interesting they also included "photovoltaic assemblies" in the title of the patent. There are multiple automated ways to clean automotive glass, but I haven't seen many inventions for automatically cleaning solar panels that don't involve impractically large sweeper arms or small cleaning robots. So maybe they've also found a way to apply laser cleaning to solar roof tiles to improve long-term performance.
 
I’m usually skeptical about conspiracies, but it sure looks to me like some big money is selling, early in the week, weekly expiring calls while they pump up the SP. Then, midweek, they put selling pressure on the SP to make those calls worthless.

And it’s not just TSLA. It’s on a basket of stocks that have high weekly call volumes. That’s maybe why the broader market can tank as it did today.

It’s a highly profitable strategy…until it blows up on them, which it might have today with the China production report, but they managed to contain the fallout today, probably at a steep cost. The smarter players of this strategy probably know it’s about time to switch to the other side of the trade as to TSLA, as it gets close to Q3 reporting.
No, that'll be us folks in the *other* thread doing that 🤪
 
What I read was the problem was managing the production from all across the islands and that it could cause power surges and overwhelm the equipment.
This was several years ago and maybe the answer is batteries. I don't know
Apart from batteries the additional solution is an inverter standard that requires inverters to back off exports in nigh voltage (oversupply) situations. It is likely that all newer inverters support this.

I see a big market for home batteries.
 
So now that we have a pretty clear idea of Giga China P/D for Q3, the big mystery to me is Fremont.

This mainly centers around the battery packs being brought in from China. Fremont has always been below it's actual maximum capacity due to battery constraints. It's capable of doing 500k between the 3/Y, but never reaches that actual rate on a quarterly basis. I am expecting Fremont to increase it's 3/Y production from Q2 thanks to those imported battery packs (more Nevada produced packs are going into the Y).

We also know that since Tesla is bringing in battery packs from China for the 3 and that Giga Nevada is going max production of 2170 battery packs (thanks to Carson's continual updates), chips are NOT the limiting factor for Fremont actually getting to it's production capacity limit.

How much of an increase is hard to say. These MIC battery pack Model 3's are going straight into inventory instead of going to people with orders because of the very slight range difference. And Tesla has been continually replenishing inventory of these MIC battery pack Model 3's. Will it add only like 1-2k of P/D for Q3? Maybe 5,000 P/D difference? 10,000....possible. It's just impossible to say unless someone is literally tracking the inventory every hour of every day.

I'm now expecting 240k P/D for Q3 thanks to the ramp at Giga China combined with 10k of Model S. These MIC battery pack Model 3's though could be a surprise to production/deliveries for Q3. I mean, 250k isn't impossible if Fremont actually produces much closer to it's actual capacity maximum for 3/Y.

I’m sorry, but @Krugerrand had a more convincing analysis. 83K seems more likely.
 
Will you be changing your user name to MYL326?
Well .. I call my CLK350 Clara, because CL .. so was planning on naming the MY Maya, then again you got me thinking, 326 ? Google says:

Angel Number 326 Meaning
" Thanks to angel number 326, the divine realm gets into contact with you. The physical world and the angelic realm get to communicate.
You keep seeing this number because your angels want you to search for its significance. They are guiding you to discover its hidden message.
It won’t be hard to do so if you are receptive to this number. You will realize that angel number 326 bears a message of growth, progress, and prosperity.
This is what the Universe wants for you and your loved ones "

And maybe I sell at 978, wait for a pullback to get back in again (at 652) - or rather since we're on a growth curve, sell at 1304 and buy back at 978. : D
 
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 have been down for three straight sessions. Nevertheless, TSLA has been up for three straight. TSLA continues to trend upward in wake of the formation of a Golden Cross on August 30, when its 50-day SMA (simple moving average) pushed above the 200-day SMA. This can be viewed technically as quite encouraging.
 
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What Tesla really need is to pull a Steve Jobs on the US utility grid* and whatever organizations are currently (not) handling the utility distribution in the US. Maybe that's what is coming, have to assume they know what they are doing.

(*) I'm alluding here to the masterful coup Jobs pulled on the entrenched telcos at the time (AT&T, Verizon and whoever the other giants were) - at the time you could not buy an unlocked cellphone, all cellphones were sold by the different telcos who modified them to lock their customers in and really prevent competition. And the telcos of course took advantage of this situation.
Apple broke their monopoly by selling *exclusively* through AT&T, then Google joined the fray and the rest is history, all carriers now have to unlock their phones on request and accept unlocked phones.
 
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We have probably talked about Edmunds too much but I find their whole argument to be incredibly stupid. So they think the Plaid is an overpriced waste, because the competition has nicer interiors. The Taycan Turbo S is 55k more expensive than the plaid, slower, (probably better on a road course) and has 220 fewer miles of range.

IDK about you guys, but I wouldn't trade that much money and range for a nicer wood dash and some buttons.
 
I know a lot of people who have bought a taycan. I guess they are established porsche fans who hate tesla, or perhaps want to be different. The taycan IS a very LOOK AT ME I AM COOL car, whereas the model S looks like a jaguar. Nice... but not trying to turn heads.
They do all complain that their charging options suck though...
I guess the real interesting thing will be what car they buy after owning a taycan for a few years.
 
I ordered another MY for an employee on monday (no holiday here in Germany).

This is what I got today (translated by DEEPL):

"Hallo Johann, wir haben großartige Nachrichten für Sie. Ihr Model Y steht bereits im Auslieferungszentrum EU-DE - Muenchen - Haag Delivery Hub zur Abholung bereit. Sofern Sie Ihr Fahrzeug bereits zugelassen haben, nennen Sie uns gerne einen passenden Abholtermin in der aktuellen Kalenderwoche, indem Sie mit "Vorziehen + Abholdatum" auf diese SMS antworten. Im Anschluss wird sich ein Tesla Advisor mit Ihnen in Verbindung setzen und den Termin bestätigen. Um sich von dem SMS Service abzumelden, antworten Sie mit STOP."

Hello Johann, we have great news for you. Your Model Y is already ready for pickup at the EU-DE - Munich - Haag Delivery Hub. Provided you have already registered your vehicle, please feel free to provide us with a suitable pickup date in the current calendar week by replying to this SMS with "Advance + Pickup Date". A Tesla Advisor will then contact you to confirm the date. To unsubscribe from the SMS service, reply with STOP.

Unfortunately I have to wait for the invoice, pay for the car, receive the registration documents, register the car; only then can I pick it up. Let's see how long that takes. I am ready.

I talked to a sales guy and he said they have all colors of the MY available for immediate delivery.

Tesla Germany is on fire. Several friends of mine are picking up their first or second Tesla car next week. Times are good.