Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[S3XY]

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Tesla delivery forecast set to surge 33% in 2022: Wedbush

Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) delivery forecast is set to surge by one-third in 2022 from 2021, according to a new investor note from Wedbush analyst Dan Ives. Ives, a Tesla bull, believes the company’s delivery numbers could grow by as much as 300,000 vehicles in the next year, as the company focuses...

www.teslarati.com

TL;DR: "Wedbush analyst Dan Ives. Ives, a Tesla bull, believes the company’s delivery numbers could grow by as much as 300,000 vehicles in the next year, as the company focuses on meeting the one million vehicle delivery mark this year."


[Sigh] : Bears

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Perfect parallel for Tesla & TSLA; bullies, FUDsters & all.

Run, Faw-West, Run!

 

[Curt Renz]

$760 still being stubborn af...

Today has been a Triple Witching Day, a quarterly expiration of options and futures. TSLA $760 appears to have been the capping ideal for large options writers with the ability to manipulate stock shares.

 

[Christine69420]

The battle of 760 was a real thriller!

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Over 7.2M shares traded at the closing cross. Nice

 

[generalenthu]

View attachment 710684
Over 7.2M shares traded at the closing cross. Nice

Wow.. ~28 million volume day. And that was a mini gamma squeeze at the end. The 750 and the 755 call sellers got smoked, with a few of my 755s in there (no regrets). Who's ready for next week?

All the more impressive given the macros.

 

[Opus BC fan]

Today goes in the "Win" column.
Have a great weekend all.

At this time next week, I should have my Plaid (with FSD paid for)

 

[Singuy]

I think for all the Fridays we blame MM for manipulating Tesla down, today is probably one of those days where they helped. The macro environment is absolutely abysmal today. If today was a typical day, it would have been an easy -3 to 5% kind of day.

Also good thing the Vix did not hit 21 at the close. I am nervous about next week actually.

 

[Curt Renz]

This was a down week for the market averages. But Tesla (TSLA) closed up each of the five days, to end with its highest close since April 13. It continues to push above its 50 & 200-day SMAs, which formed a bullish Golden Cross on August 30. All quite encouraging.

 

[OrthoSurg]

TGIF. My heart cant take anymore of that 760 battle. what a great week it was in the overall context. Have a green week end everyone

 

[SOULPEDL]

I've been thinking about this "reverse" capability coming in 10.1. Seems like there's some risk. The car inches forward to see, but is hesitant. The driver is able to use the accelerator to convince the car to go when it might not. The driver might accelerate heavily after the car peeks out to clear on coming traffic quickly. What if this scenario develops at the same time that FSD decides to back up in reverse?

I think Tesla AI would need to also agree to proceed in order to continue under human direction. Similar to when it prevents someone from driving off an embankment (which happend and Tesla stopped the car). However, there's not much time, so reverse could be important.

If the human does go for it, I'd say it puts the vehicle in a defensive mode and stopping from crossing traffic would be one option, same with accelerating faster than the human who just screwed up.

 

[StealthP3D]

The main reasons for 520 miles is so you can drive the more scenic (or shorter) routes, or not have to go out of your way if a Supercharger location is out of service

Isn't Lucid planning to have a fast charging network? I think the 520 mile range is because they will be able to call it a "Coast-to-Coast" fast charging network with only 5 charge stations.

 

[Nolimits]

Great week. Hope this keeps up. Next few months are going to be very exciting. Congrats to those who bought leaps few weeks ago.

 

[SOULPEDL]

On the FSD Button, I'm going to stare at the road and be a great co-pilot for max points. Next, speed matters through intersections. Something like this:

Win:
1,000 points - FSD Early Adopter (experience matters)
500 points - Taking over to avoiding an accident.
100 points - Stopping at a crosswalk with someone standing there but not on the road yet.
5 points - Allowing it to change all 6 lanes of the freeway on it's own.
1 point - Stop without pressing brakes.

Lose:
10 points - Hands on wheel warning.
100 points - Eyes on road warning (we'll see)
500 points - Use of phone not hands-free.
1000 points - Accelerate/speed towards a yellow/red traffic light

Revoked - Drunk and hits an emergency vehicle... Not a good candidate!

 

[BornToFly]

Great week. Hope this keeps up. Next few months are going to be very exciting. Congrats to those who bought leaps few weeks ago.

I think Jan 2023 1500s are even cheaper now than a few weeks ago. They are worth less than 25% of what they were in April. For buyers of LEAPS, might be worth looking into. I'm waiting to sell them, but not until they are at least double what they are now.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Are we really back to calling people who mention poor service 'crybabies'? This is embarrassing. It is WAY too early to be smug about Teslas long term build quality. I own a 2015 model S. An amazing car, but with terrible panel gaps, the fancy powered door-handles broke and needed replacing (under warranty), the glue on the chargepoint door would melt in the sun and stick the door closed, the rear headlights still fill up with water even after tesla fixed it.
The car became almost unusable until i upgraded the screen at my own expense. The brakes have squeaked constantly since it got new (referral wheels).

Tesla customer service in my experience has been erratic, contradictory, and sometimes dreadful. They keep replying to me every few weeks (but only after I complain loudly) assuring me they are 'looking into' whether I should be compensated the cost of an emmc replacement after I paid about $3000 for a new screen to fix the teslas-fault bad component on manufacture.

I love my car, and will get a model Y. I have seven figures of tesla stock and love the company, but to be honest, their customer service is awful. We dont know how well built the cars are yet, because frankly most of them are new. The left scroll wheel on my steering wheel started intermittently failing yesterday. What state will the car be in another 5 years?

When we have 10 year old model 3s, and Ys that are still flawless, yup by all means be smug, but to brush all customer service concerns aside and call anybody with any criticisms of the company as a 'crybaby' is a disservice to a forum that is supposed to be for investors, not fanboys.

Oh and BTW still in 2021 all UK Teslas web browsers think we are in the Netherlands. People have complained hundreds of times, they still cannot be bothered to fix that.

 

[Singuy]

Are we really back to calling people who mention poor service 'crybabies'? This is embarrassing. It is WAY too early to be smug about Teslas long term build quality. I own a 2015 model S. An amazing car, but with terrible panel gaps, the fancy powered door-handles broke and needed replacing (under warranty), the glue on the chargepoint door would melt in the sun and stick the door closed, the rear headlights still fill up with water even after tesla fixed it.
The car became almost unusable until i upgraded the screen at my own expense. The brakes have squeaked constantly since it got new (referral wheels).

Tesla customer service in my experience has been erratic, contradictory, and sometimes dreadful. They keep replying to me every few weeks (but only after I complain loudly) assuring me they are 'looking into' whether I should be compensated the cost of an emmc replacement after I paid about $3000 for a new screen to fix the teslas-fault bad component on manufacture.

I love my car, and will get a model Y. I have seven figures of tesla stock and love the company, but to be honest, their customer service is awful. We dont know how well built the cars are yet, because frankly most of them are new. The left scroll wheel on my steering wheel started intermittently failing yesterday. What state will the car be in another 5 years?

When we have 10 year old model 3s, and Ys that are still flawless, yup by all means be smug, but to brush all customer service concerns aside and call anybody with any criticisms of the company as a 'crybaby' is a disservice to a forum that is supposed to be for investors, not fanboys.

Oh and BTW still in 2021 all UK Teslas web browsers think we are in the Netherlands. People have complained hundreds of times, they still cannot be bothered to fix that.

So are you going to bathe in your anecdote and sell like Neroden or....is there a point to any of this in the investor forum?

I'm not saying Tesla build quality is perfect, or their service is perfect. I'm saying they are within industry standard if you zoom out from the anecdotal view and look at the big picture.

 

[BornToFly]

Are we really back to calling people who mention poor service 'crybabies'? This is embarrassing. It is WAY too early to be smug about Teslas long term build quality. I own a 2015 model S. An amazing car, but with terrible panel gaps, the fancy powered door-handles broke and needed replacing (under warranty), the glue on the chargepoint door would melt in the sun and stick the door closed, the rear headlights still fill up with water even after tesla fixed it.
The car became almost unusable until i upgraded the screen at my own expense. The brakes have squeaked constantly since it got new (referral wheels).

Tesla customer service in my experience has been erratic, contradictory, and sometimes dreadful. They keep replying to me every few weeks (but only after I complain loudly) assuring me they are 'looking into' whether I should be compensated the cost of an emmc replacement after I paid about $3000 for a new screen to fix the teslas-fault bad component on manufacture.

I love my car, and will get a model Y. I have seven figures of tesla stock and love the company, but to be honest, their customer service is awful. We dont know how well built the cars are yet, because frankly most of them are new. The left scroll wheel on my steering wheel started intermittently failing yesterday. What state will the car be in another 5 years?

When we have 10 year old model 3s, and Ys that are still flawless, yup by all means be smug, but to brush all customer service concerns aside and call anybody with any criticisms of the company as a 'crybaby' is a disservice to a forum that is supposed to be for investors, not fanboys.

Oh and BTW still in 2021 all UK Teslas web browsers think we are in the Netherlands. People have complained hundreds of times, they still cannot be bothered to fix that.

Interesting. My 2015 Model S was still absolutely perfect/flawless when I sold it 4 years later for the Raven.

 

[hacer]

Are you filtering the data you use? That point (min payout) sounds like Max Pain which is still at $700. A $750 close looks like an additional $390 million in payouts (non-hedged).
View attachment 710454

As you allude to, the main problem with max pain is that market makers DO hedge their positions and anything deep-in-the-money on either side is very likely to be mostly if not fully hedged. They are more likely to take on risk in the vicinity of current prices because small moves are far more realistically achievable. It's one reason something like a delta-payout analysis within a weighted window of the current price may be a better predictor than looking for the global peak.