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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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The ICE guys don't really race Teslas anymore. In general they kind of pretend we aren't there, like there's a car-shaped hole where a Tesla is.

However your average Tesla driver also never challenges, because we already know what we've got and don't need to prove anything to anyone.
I mean, the standard 'Murican protocol for this sort of challenge is to look at the other driver and rev your engine. I've wanted to challenge dino burners but just couldn't cuz the Tesla engine don't make revving noise.
 
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The majority of owners have relatively new cars. It shouldn't shock anybody to know that a brand new car works correctly. What is more relevant is how long a Tesla will last. There simply are not enough 10 year old Teslas to know this yet, but if anyone with an older Tesla gets shouted down the minute they discuss the longevity of their vehicle, as investors we will have a big phat blindspot to a potential problem with the company,

edit: I'm constantly asked in my village if I am 'still happy with the tesla?'. Nobody ever asks me if its fast enough, or if the tech is cool enough. Older people, who are not crazy about EVs simply want to know if these things are reliable.

Well, Chevy Bolts seemed to have lasted under 5 years before ALL of them were recalled.

In my village, people ask "How do you like your Tesla's" or ask "What's the best way to charge it? (Since they have never owned RVs)"

Nobody ever ask me if I am "still happy" as if they are anticipating my negative reply. I'm positive, they are positive. I give them the real scoop while not discouraging them.

I have no idea where you are headed, especially in an investor forum sub topic. Service is tangible to the price of the stock and the longevity of the company.

However you spin issues like you are TESLAQ and trying to save people who don't need nor asked to be saved.

Weird.
 
I had 55x (l)cc765's, but closed them out in the final 10 minutes for $0.05 - too risky to leave those lying around

Always close your calls folks, it's not worth the risk for a few pennies extra
I had 760 CC and wanted to close them 5 minutes before market close on Friday. Tesla was 760.01 and the calls were around 0.75-0.85. That seemed ridiculous. Time value for 5 minutes?

There was no opportunity to buy back cheaper, so I let them roll. Expecting the worst (losing my TSLA (!).

Then after hours the stock dipped under 760 and the calls were never exercised. Dumb luck.
 
I had 760 CC and wanted to close them 5 minutes before market close on Friday. Tesla was 760.01 and the calls were around 0.75-0.85. That seemed ridiculous. Time value for 5 minutes?
time value is always the largest ATM.... i.e. you might find solace in the fact that you caught the ideal moment to roll out based on the information available to you when you made the decision.

no reason to blame oneself if one made the right decision at the time with the info one had.
 
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I had 760 CC and wanted to close them 5 minutes before market close on Friday. Tesla was 760.01 and the calls were around 0.75-0.85. That seemed ridiculous. Time value for 5 minutes?

There was no opportunity to buy back cheaper, so I let them roll. Expecting the worst (losing my TSLA (!).

Then after hours the stock dipped under 760 and the calls were never exercised. Dumb luck.
That is not time value for 5 minutes, but for 95. You can execute until 90 minutes after close. And a standard deviation of 80 cents for 90 minutes sounds reasonable.
 
Sorry but Troy's method for data collection is outdated and becomes more and more outdated the more mainstream Tesla becomes. His final estimates for each quarter so far have been off, and not just slightly off.
In 4 out of the last 5 quarters, my final Tesla delivery estimate was off by 2.6% or less. In Q3, I will post my final estimate on Twitter here on the last day of the quarter as usual. I'm again aiming for less than 3% error. Here is what I think of error rates:

  • 0-2.0% Excellent
  • 2.1-3.0% Very good
  • 3.1-4.0% Good
  • 4.1-5.0% Average
I'm using DMV data and VIN data for US deliveries. Getting the Model S number wrong could cause more than 2.6% overall error on its own. I'm not aware of a better source than DMV data for Model S deliveries in Q3. I'm purchasing some of the DMV data so I can have data for September before September is over,

Instead of publishing all content only on Patreon, I post the results on Twitter too with a 7-day lag, except for the final estimate on 30 Sep. That one won't have a lag.
 
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In 4 out of the last 5 quarters, my final Tesla delivery estimate was off by 2.6% or less. In Q3, I will post my final estimate on Twitter here on the last day of the quarter as usual. I'm again aiming for less than 3% error. Here is what I think of error rates:

  • 0-2.0% Excellent
  • 2.1-3.0% Very good
  • 3.1-4.0% Good
  • 4.1-5.0% Average
I'm using DMV data and VIN data for US deliveries. Getting the Model S number wrong could cause more than 2.6% overall error on its own. I'm not aware of a better source than DMV data for Model S deliveries in Q3. I'm purchasing some of the DMV data so I can have data for September before September is over,

Instead of publishing all content only on Patreon, I post the results on Twitter too with a 7-day lag, except for the final estimate on 30 Sep. That one won't have a lag.
Thank you Troy. Do you trade TSLA stock/options? Invest is TSLA? Just as for any analyst or reporter, transparency and disclosure is important and helpful, for us as well as for you.
 
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Thank you Troy. Do you trade TSLA stock/options? Invest is TSLA? Just as for any analyst or reporter, transparency and disclosure is important and helpful, for us as well as for you.
No, I don't own any TSLA stock, I don't normally trade TSLA and have not traded it for a long time. As for options, I don't know how options work and never tried it for any stock. I'm pro Tesla and I support their mission. I'm trying to make my estimates as accurate as possible.
 
No, I don't own any TSLA stock, I don't normally trade TSLA and have not traded it for a long time. As for options, I don't know how options work and never tried it for any stock. I'm pro Tesla and I support their mission. I'm trying to make my estimates as accurate as possible.
How is it humanly possible to analyse TSLA stock and see the projections and know how incredible the future is for them and still be able to restrain yourself from buying their stock. That is some dedicated professionalism