"I think US Q3 deliveries will be lower than expected because some customers will not take delivery and will chose to wait for the tax credits."In 4 out of the last 5 quarters, my final Tesla delivery estimate was off by 2.6% or less. In Q3, I will post my final estimate on Twitter here on the last day of the quarter as usual. I'm again aiming for less than 3% error. Here is what I think of error rates:
I'm using DMV data and VIN data for US deliveries. Getting the Model S number wrong could cause more than 2.6% overall error on its own. I'm not aware of a better source than DMV data for Model S deliveries in Q3. I'm purchasing some of the DMV data so I can have data for September before September is over,
- 0-2.0% Excellent
- 2.1-3.0% Very good
- 3.1-4.0% Good
- 4.1-5.0% Average
Instead of publishing all content only on Patreon, I post the results on Twitter too with a 7-day lag, except for the final estimate on 30 Sep. That one won't have a lag.
"I think Tesla will produce more cars than deliveries because it wants to refresh low inventory in the US".
Sorry Troy, but you are making too much assumptions each quarter and that is not being data driven.
You estimated 37K deliveries for August in China and the actual was 44K. That is being utterly wrong (more than 15%). That is having no idea what is going on in China.
For the last several quarters, the ones that make estimates based on Tesla's production are way closer, much closer than you.