Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

I think that is not the main fear.
It is more like a cascade of defaulting companies if this one is busted. Think 2008-Housing in the US.
Many chinese are WAY overleveraged.

But i think the state will step in & not let this happen. But fear makes the markets volatile and volatility opens up possibilities to make money from the impatient/fearful/just-following people.

None to little chance of "contagion" for the entire U.S. industrial and commercial base, yet only 6 equities in the S&P 500 are in positive territory in the Pre-market.

This is pure Wall St. greed:

1. take in advance
2. promise to repay later
3. contribute nothing
4. admit nothing

Ford Motor Company "F" (-3.32%)
General Motors Cpny "GM" (-3.21%)

 

[dmvevguy]

Anyone seeing the Evergrande default in China? They were heavily invested in many Chinese EV companies. Should be good for TSLA, but wondering if it has any broad macro implications overall to the US market? I noticed many US banks owned their stock like Vanguard etc.

Ugh, was hoping this was a nothing burger. I'm hoping it blows over this week once news cycle ends on it. Hoping for China to do some bailouts!

 

[Xd85]

"sell in may and go away"?
"buy back after yom kippor"?
"september slide"?

folks with longer experience, are these actual phenomenon or an excuse of the day? (being on this forum the i'm pretty sure the answer)

 

[Knightshade]

I recall most of the criticism was due to the reason Gary gave for selling, it was because Elon bought Bitcoin. Silly reason. And, indeed, he bought back in and Tesla still held Bitcoin. His actions and words don't really align and I don't like people who appear to use their standing or popularity to influence others for their benefit. Sure, his trade made a profit but he used others to amplify it.

Sure, and same may well apply to Burry- I doubt he invested that much without realizing how superficial the "profit only from credits" argument he was making several quarters ago actually is if you look at the books-- but a lot of folks listen to him, so those remarks may well have helped him make that position profitable regardless of the long term merit of the argument.

It's a crappy aspect of the markets, especially among folks who have a lot of followers and make shorter-term bets than many here-- but it's still the reality of the markets.

If you're an act-dead investor you don't care-- but a lot of folks are more active than that

That's NOT the issue. The issue is not the error rate with 24 hrs to in the quarter, but a consistent negative bias at the START of the quarter, which is inevitably adjusted upward just before the end. Self-reporting that final error rate as representing the quarterly estimate is improper.

Whenever there is a consistent negative bias, it is TRIVIAL to remove that with statistical methods. The fact that he has not done so, (in spite of being repeated called for it), speaks volumes.

Your basic claim is incorrect though.

Troy posted his initial and final data here going back 8 quarters-

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

I daily trade the indexes. Always good to keep in mind what’s happening in the markets even when someone is 100% invested in one stock. It doesn’t hurt to buy some SPY puts to hedge a portfolio when there is increased risk I don't see why one would be buying SPY puts to hedge TSLA. If you were...

teslamotorsclub.com

He's wrong in the POSITIVE direction initially far more often than the negative one.

His initial estimates were high 5 of the last 8 quarters including 5 of the last 6..

The queasy part of this entire effort is the presence of a patreon account, allowing certain bears which to contribute financially to his (predictably low) early estimates.

This accusation is fundamentally unsupported by Troys actual numbers though.

You're welcome to debate the methodology he uses... I'm also not a fan of some of his methods- but if you're going to imply something shady is going on it'd be great if it reflected the actual data instead of the opposite of it.

 

[BornToFly]

My financial feed is full of articles about TSLA dropping because the head of the NTSB is criticizing Autopilot. One of the articles has quoted her as saying:

"Basic safety issues have to be addressed before they’re then expanding it to other city streets and other areas,” she told The Wall Street Journal. Homendy also expressed concern about how Tesla software is tested on public roadways.

Homendy called Tesla’s use of the term 'Full Self-Driving' “misleading and irresponsible."

To me, the drop looks Macro related and has little to do with Ms. Homendy's comments.

 

[ZachF]

I'm not concerned even a little about the supposed "Evergrande debt crisis". This story broke last week. Evergrande's total debt is $300B vs China's GDP of $14.6T in 2021. China will outgrow this w/o blinking an eye, even in the worst case scenario (which is very unlikely).

Eh, Lehman Bros was only a small percentage of US GDP...

The problem is China has probably had more property malinvestment in the last ~20 years than all of previous human civilization combined... Building entire empty cities when your population is starting to decline is bad form.

 

[Krugerrand]

Well it is a very big question about what exactly happens when the inevitable first fatal FSD crash occurs that is judged to be the obvious fault of the FSD software. Can easily see that leading to a result of Tesla having to pull the FSD beta program.

It’s not a very big question. It’s not even a tiny question. Answer: Somebody dies and most likely because they didn’t take the necessary caution and attention required to drive with (or without) FSD engaged. In other words, they didn’t value their lives enough nor those around them.

It behooves all people to get out of their fearmongering state. If you can’t, then give into your fear and hedge by selling your TSLA stock. And don’t get irritated because I just gave you the solution to your fear.

 

[ZachF]

Only difference is this is all state controlled. There wouldn't be a bank that defaults because they are not private institutions. The government will move funds around and bail whoever it needs out. As for public opinion, the Chinese government doesn't give a F.

Not a good thing.

This just allows papering over the rot until it becomes systemic (like the USSR).

China has now already done all of the easy growth. Unless it allows it's citizens more political and economy freedom/agency, it will stagnate at the middle-income trap, unfortunately, Xi seems to be heading in the opposite direction. After the USSR ran out of easy growth (moving subsistence farmers into the cities), it collapsed shortly after.

With the exception of sparsely populated oil exporters, no country has ever passed the middle income trap without allowing a certain amount of personal, political and economic freedom.

 

[Singuy]

Not a good thing.

This just allows papering over the rot until it becomes systemic (like the USSR).

China has now already done all of the easy growth. Unless it allows it's citizens more political and economy freedom/agency, it will stagnate at the middle-income trap, unfortunately, Xi seems to be heading in the opposite direction. After the USSR ran out of easy growth (moving subsistence farmers into the cities), it collapsed shortly after.

With the exception of sparsely populated oil exporters, no country has ever passed the middle income trap without allowing a certain amount of personal, political and economic freedom.

And yet the Chinese are the only ones Elon and Munro are praising for being competitive for the next generation of products while trashing everyone else.

 

[InTheShadows]

I don't see why one would be buying SPY puts to hedge TSLA. If you were really scared, one would just collar the stock using short calls to finance protective puts.

People buy spy puts all the time as a hedge against macros. The IV is significantly lower for spy so it cost less money and is even more liquid than tsla. Anyone that bought spy puts on Friday is elated that they did this morning.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

People buy spy puts all the time as a hedge against macros. The IV is significantly lower for spy so it cost less money and is even more liquid than tsla. Anyone that bought spy puts on Friday is elated that they did this morning.

The problem with buying SPY puts (to hedge TSLA's exposure to macros) is that most of the times those puts expire worthless, at least they did so over the past year. That means you need an S&P drop of at least 10 to 20% to even recoup the losses on all those previously expired SPY puts, let alone compensate for the paper losses on TSLA which you bought them for in the first place.

 

[ZachF]

And yet the Chinese are the only ones Elon and Munro are praising for being competitive for the next generation of products while trashing everyone else.

Much of the reason for their competitiveness is because of the huge amounts of free money they receive... Evergrande may signal the end to this, hence Chinese securities getting clobbered.

The Japanese were taking over everything right up until they weren't. The same thing happened there in the 80s and 90s.

 

[2daMoon]

Tom Nash offers some insight on the Evergrande situation, how it may play out, and who will be affected.

 

[matejpi]

Some dry powder is ready to buy this dip. But I will wait for a little to see the effect the Evergrande default will have on the markets.

 

[ZachF]

Good thread on Evergrande here too:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1439822475353739269

 

[Nocturnal]

Am I the only one who is torn between his inherent optimism about Tesla's FSD chops and his pessimism about how people might abuse it? I think the worst case scenarios are very unlikely because the delta will be in surface streets with relatively low speeds. I do know that the internet is going to blow up with videos about it, mostly people showing off the good parts.

Subscribers to FSD will also be eligible for the Beta so I expect that to drive a lot of people to subscribe. Q3 looking good.

 

[ZachF]

Interesting thought I had....

Drivers are now training FSD to drive... maybe one day soon FSD will train humans (think 16 yos) to drive !

 

[elasalle]

Macro - If this gets approved, I don't think market stays red for long:

Pfizer says its Covid vaccine is safe and generates robust immune response in kids ages 5 to 11

Pfizer and BioNTech tested a two-dose regimen of 10 micrograms — about a third the dosage used for teens and adults — administered three weeks apart.

www.cnbc.com

mid-BB support @735 (see if it holds)

 

[st_lopes]

From broker's feed this morning...

Shares of several auto-makers are trading lower following reports suggesting the NHTSA has opened a safety probe over potentially dangerous Takata air bag inflators into 30 million vehicles produced by nearly two dozen automakers.

20 Sep 2021 09:44:55 AM | Benzinga

 

[GrandEnigma]

From broker's feed this morning...

Shares of several auto-makers are trading lower following reports suggesting the NHTSA has opened a safety probe over potentially dangerous Takata air bag inflators into 30 million vehicles produced by nearly two dozen automakers.

20 Sep 2021 09:44:55 AM | Benzinga

So every major manufacturer.