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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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How the tide does change. Last week numerous people here were defending Chamath’s insane (IMO) Tesla energy projected valuation, and now all of a sudden the consensus is he is a POS stock pumper because he sold his TSLA position.

The article quotes him as saying his thesis on Tesla has shifted. I wonder in what respect? I can’t understand a long-time bull who really seems to get Tesla selling out. Then again, maybe he pulled a Gary and sold out temporarily because he thinks the stock (or broader market) will pull back.
 
Yahoo Finance shows that Tesla's 2020 Annual revenue was $31.54B.

Q1/Q2 2021 Revenue was $22.35B. So, if Tesla reaches $9.19B in revenue in Q3, they'll have reached parity with last year with a full quarter to go. Based on the estimates here and wallstreet, it sounds like Tesla is going to go over that at ~$14B.

Even if they equal the same output for Q4 as they do in Q3 (which is highly unlikely on the positive side as both Berlin and Austin will start production in Q4), then they could, at least, finish the year at $50.35B ($22.35B + $14B + $14B) in revenue. That's a ~60% increase y-o-y.

Tesla finished 12/31/2020 at $705.67...The stock price following, linearly, the increase in revenue, post S&P 500, should equate to a $1129 share price at 12/31/2021...theoretically and, rationally, using some simple math.
Share price increase shouldn’t linearly match increase in revenue, as the share price (of all companies) includes expectations of growth (which are an average of market participants expectations). It’s when those expectations of growth change that the share price moves (for better or worse).
 
Share price increase shouldn’t linearly match increase in revenue, as the share price (of all companies) includes expectations of growth (which are an average of market participants expectations). It’s when those expectations of growth change that the share price moves (for better or worse).

We're also talking about a company executing so well (for so long) that we're taking for granted its ability to execute in an uncertain current macro situation [1]. As a result, the math becomes simple and a range or line in the sand can be applied to the company, IMO.

[1] The workers who keep global supply chains moving are warning of a 'system collapse'
 
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The UK Dept. for Transport today released new car registration statistics for Q2 of this year (yes, they do take their time!), broken down by model. Here's a Twitter thread that discusses some of the more relevant aspects concerning Tesla:
Keep your eyes on EU registration. Whereas Tesla has owned ~20% market share of BEVs in Q1 and Q2 the September data for markets with daily updates is trending closer to 40%. Wall Street is completely underestimating the impact of the step change in Shanghai manufacturing coupled with it focusing on EU exports early in Quarter, most of which won’t deliver until September.
 
I don't really care if Chamath is in or out of TSLA. We're way past the point of needing support in the stock from whales, though I very much think he was forced to sell his TSLA position to cover losses and that it wasn't really his choice.

Having said that, I find his promotion and involvement in SPACS to be rather disgusting and have thought that way about him for a long time now. He was promoting trash companies who had zero business being publicly traded. As @Singuy said, lots of people that followed him were wiped out.
No comment on the exploitive and purposely confusing nature of SPACs (except that one I suppose). But that aside, to this day Chamath takes every opportunity possible to defend and promote Elon and all his endeavors. I see him as a strong Tesla ally regardless of his stock position.
 
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The article quotes him as saying his thesis on Tesla has shifted. I wonder in what respect? I can’t understand a long-time bull who really seems to get Tesla selling out. Then again, maybe he pulled a Gary and sold out temporarily because he thinks the stock (or broader market) will pull back.

You understand that Chamath sold out back in Q1, and this zombie-tale is just the bottom-feeders at CNBC flopping around in an attempt to find fresh FUD?

Right? :p
 
Lots of people lost their shirt following his BS
Timing, my friends. Timing is everything.

As I reported at the time, in late January I sold all our SPCE at $57.18, thus ensuring a terrible problem in filling out our 1040 at the end of this year. Boo hoo. It closed today at $22.56, after having touched $14.27 in May. Yay.
And, I summarily placed all those funds into something else which was then $791.18 and closed today at $781.31. Timing is everything - boo hoo.
 
You understand that Chamath sold out back in Q1, and this zombie-tale is just the bottom-feeders at CNBC flopping around in an attempt to find fresh FUD?

Right? :p

Yes yes yes. I’m more just having trouble understanding a changed thesis from an uber-bull…as others have pointed out his reasons may have had more to do with covering losses from other investments. Can’t see selling with so much blue-sky ahead…
 
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Piggybacking on your comments:
Wedbush is a Tesla Bull in the eyes of the media; but if we apply the TMC grading curve, they are bears.
Only $1,000 price target on 12 months?
Also look at these non-GAAP EPS numbers:


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They have $1.22 this Q3 coming off of $1.45 in Q2? For the record I have $2.01
And for Q4 only $1.55 - we should see at lease $2.25 if not $2.50.
Then look at Q2 2022 - down to $1.37 with Berlin and Austin open.
I am not angry . . . .I guess this is how wealth is made . . . . having access to data others don't have (or believe).

What I understand of analysts is that they don't really care to predict the right price, they only want to get the direction right. They will have a tendency to be very conservative on the actual price target.
 
Yes yes yes. I’m more just having trouble understanding a changed thesis from an uber-bull…as others have pointed out his reasons may have had more to do with covering losses from other investments. Can’t see selling with so much blue-sky ahead…
Okay, thanks. I don't really follow Chamath closely anymore (the whole nasty SPAC thing), but I heard he was squeezed for cash. But don't quote me, I don't know.

Cheers!
 
Timing, my friends. Timing is everything.

As I reported at the time, in late January I sold all our SPCE at $57.18, thus ensuring a terrible problem in filling out our 1040 at the end of this year. Boo hoo. It closed today at $22.56, after having touched $14.27 in May. Yay.
And, I summarily placed all those funds into something else which was then $791.18 and closed today at $781.31. Timing is everything - boo hoo.
You can time cum rocket and make a boat load of money.

My problem with Chamath is that he would talk about how awesome SPACs are, but they are actually dumpster fire because it gives pre-public companies a way to hide vital information which lines up the pockets of early investors. Those who bought into CCIV got crushed after the Spac. Same with Clover Health.

 
Okay, thanks. I don't really follow Chamath closely anymore (the whole nasty SPAC thing), but I heard he was squeezed for cash. But don't quote me, I don't know.

Cheers!

My impression of him was that he seemed to understand/connect with Tesla in that beyond-the-business sort of way that many of us do. I’d be just as curious if you (or Stealth, or Krug, or FrankSG, or many others here with high conviction) suddenly changed their thesis.

N.B. “Thesis” to me doesn’t imply timing or macro events or personal events (eg “stock got overheated,” “market going to crash,” or “had to buy a house”) but rather a long-term outlook based on the company’s fundamentals, trajectory, projected execution, future areas for growth, etc. Maybe that’s where I’m getting caught up.
 
My wife and I were driving to the supermarket today when we noticed a bunch of Teslas in a nearby lot. I asked her to drive around so I could get a better glimpse. It seemed to be all Model S types with a lot of dust covering them. Doesn't seem like this lot will be delivered tomorrow; do you think they're completed or missing chips? Guess they'll be part of Q4's delivery numbers.

BTW, this was at the corner of Auto Mall (the overpass) and Osgood in Fremont.

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