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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Great rendering, but if they put the solar on the roof in commercial building, maybe they would save some space.

Not sure if UAW is happy on choice of location though ...
do the factories in these areas (southern states) from Honda, BMW etc have a union?
Oh I’m sure the UAW is not happy with the choice of location.

What the Unions Can’t Win in Tennessee​

Revote or no, the UAW can't reverse decades of decline with nothing to offer workers

“The UAW has tried various degrees of organizing drives at Nissan, Mercedes, Honda, Toyota and Mercedes-Benz without success. Indeed, at a Nissan plant in Canton, Mississippi, which might be the UAW's next target, anti-union workers have taken to wearing T-shirts saying, "If you want a union, move to Detroit."
 
Troy has been wrong many times too. So are we going to censor him too? Forecasting is always dicey. You can’t censor them because they are wrong sometimes ( I am no fan of Troy. But he has the right to put wrong predictions out there)
That would have been a good counterpoint except....

Troy has been positively wrong and negatively wrong but never, to the best of my recollection, egregiously wrong. Moreover, his methodology both is straightforward and reasonably easy to duplicate. The release to which I am referring is both pie-in-the-sky out there and utterly opaque. And those are utterly damning differences.

So, as I wrote: if he's correct then that suggests he knows whereof he speaks. But, with his methodology bearing the opacity of an oyster, he is on an inflexibility tight leash. No malarkey from him will be tolerated.
 
That would have been a good counterpoint except....

Troy has been positively wrong and negatively wrong but never, to the best of my recollection, egregiously wrong. Moreover, his methodology both is straightforward and reasonably easy to duplicate. The release to which I am referring is both pie-in-the-sky out there and utterly opaque. And those are utterly damning differences.

So, as I wrote: if he's correct then that suggests he knows whereof he speaks. But, with his methodology bearing the opacity of an oyster, he is on an inflexibility tight leash. No malarkey from him will be tolerated.

Troy was off by 10% in Q1.....that's egregious.

My main issue with Troy's estimates is that I feel that there's zero purpose for putting out any estimates for the first half of the quarter. He starts off low every time and just increases throughout the quarter. It's just unnecessary and to me, it undermines the legitimacy of his methods because any estimate he gives for essentially the first 2 months of a quarter is pretty much useless.

I do my estimates based off of theoretical maximum production and then lower if there are any legitimate periods of downtimes at either factory or if China monthly data suggests the numbers need to be lowered. This method has gotten me much closer than Troy's estimates for both Q1 and Q2 at the end of each quarter AND if you look at his estimates during the actual quarters, he was much farther off.
 
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The first one to develop a working partnership with Tesla might have a slim chance.
There isn't any reason why Tesla would want such a partnership at this point. They can pop out new Gigafactories in a year if they feel like they need more capacity. What does a partnership with any legacy auto company offer them now?
 
There isn't any reason why Tesla would want such a partnership at this point. They can pop out new Gigafactories in a year if they feel like they need more capacity. What does a partnership with any legacy auto company offer them now?

Better to have friends than enemies.

There would have been 0 risk to Giga Berlin delays or shenanigans had Tesla partnered with Mercedes as an example. Build ANOTHER factory with their money, put Tesla batteries and AP software in those cars.

You open up EV lines that didn't exist before and Tesla doesn't have the bandwidth to handle. EV Minivans, EV coupes, EV SUVs without FWD.

Selfishly, I would personally love a Mercedes Sprinter van with FSD a 225KW battery pack.
 
I hope this works .... I've been watching Elon for two years now. And while I appreciate what he has done for me, and is doing for the world, I always saw him as having an inferiority vibe. To me he's uncomfortable all the time... I don't know what it is..sometimes I think he's tired of herding cats, other times I think he just feels like he is incapable of making anyone understand him...
But dude! If this photo shows up (my tweet skills are in embryonic form) look at this image. You know he's the man, the photographer knows he's the man, the graduates know he's the man. And he knows we all know..the truth.
The photographer captured it perfectly... look at the graduates in the background. Most of them are no longer facing the stage.Even though Elon has his back to them and is walking away, and is far from them there are still quite a few staring at him.

 
Troy has been wrong many times too. So are we going to censor him too? Forecasting is always dicey. You can’t censor them because they are wrong sometimes ( I am no fan of Troy. But he has the right to put wrong predictions out there)
The difference is, Tesla China Analyst presented the 52K number as a fact, not a forecast or prediction. Presumably he has a source. Let's hope he's correct.
 
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I think when it comes to projection estimates toward the end of the quarter, Troy's method provides a very good what I call "2nd check". I don't know why you guys are splitting hairs on how wrong he is. It doesn't matter really. However you must pay attention to his DMV registration/survey data very closely. If his projections are very different than the "expected" number(consensus by wall street and people here), then it can become the most valuable tool for those trading short term options. If he's 5% off, big deal. However if he is looking at numbers that are 30-40% lower than expected..those should set off red flags vs the sentiment that "well he is always too conservative and borderline working for TslaQ". Q1 2019 should teach everyone here to take off their blinders and pay attention. For those trading short term, Troy would have saved your life there that Q. No one here believed his numbers...no one here wanted to believe his numbers. Tesla ended up with a 40% crash the following half a year because his numbers and the real numbers were terrible.
 
There isn't any reason why Tesla would want such a partnership at this point. They can pop out new Gigafactories in a year if they feel like they need more capacity. What does a partnership with any legacy auto company offer them now?

Well, no reason other than the Tesla Mission Statement.

Such an arrangement offers Tesla the opportunity to increase the rate of the transition.

Or, do you think that Elon is just an "us versus them" kinda guy? I don't.
 
Re Troy the shortest summation of my criticism is the phrase "precision does not equal accuracy"

He puts out so many numbers and is so happy to run them down to precision levels that make it clear he disagrees with the mathematical concept of significant digits.


So when he's off by 10% it is doubly bad that he didn't pick a round number and projects a false sense of accuracy for those that see how detailed his prediction is.
 
Well, no reason other than the Tesla Mission Statement.

Such an arrangement offers Tesla the opportunity to increase the rate of the transition.

Or, do you think that Elon is just an "us versus them" kinda guy? I don't.
Seems to me Tesla doesn't have the bandwidth to service a partnership and provide for the scale they need to grow their own business. If they had spare battery capacity then it might work. As it is, they are using every battery they can manufacture or source and still coming up short.

Are they going to ship even fewer Powerwalls in order to supply cells to a partner? Doesn't make sense.
 
 
Selfishly, I would personally love a Mercedes Sprinter van with FSD a 225KW battery pack.

Are you aware that Elon approached Mercedes in Fall 2018 to purchase Sprinter "gliders" (chassis w/o drivetrain, made in North Charleston, S.C.) so Tesla could begin making EV vans? Mercedes never took up the request.