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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
7th and 8th and realistically 9th October resembling Brits queuing for gas:
2nd Oct? P&D
7th Oct Shareholders meeting
8th Oct Giga Fest
8th Oct V10.2
8th Oct beta roll out
15th October Double Witching
25th Oct? ER
19th November Double Witching
17th December Triple Witching
3rd Jan? P&D
24th Jan? ER
18th March Triple Witching
Results from poll:
What two events are you most excited about?
1st Oct beta roll out Votes: 2 7.4%
2nd Oct? P&D Votes: 18 66.7%
7th Oct Shareholders meeting at Austin Votes: 19 70.4%
8th Oct Giga Fest Votes: 5 18.5%
8th Oct V10.2 Votes: 2 7.4%
Shareholders meeting (at the all important Austin facility) is most anticipated.
2nd Oct? P&D
7th Oct Shareholders meeting
8th Oct Giga Fest
8th Oct V10.2
8th Oct beta roll out
15th October Double Witching
25th Oct? ER
19th November Double Witching
17th December Triple Witching
3rd Jan? P&D
24th Jan? ER
18th March Triple Witching
Results from poll:
What two events are you most excited about?
1st Oct beta roll out Votes: 2 7.4%
2nd Oct? P&D Votes: 18 66.7%
7th Oct Shareholders meeting at Austin Votes: 19 70.4%
8th Oct Giga Fest Votes: 5 18.5%
8th Oct V10.2 Votes: 2 7.4%
Shareholders meeting (at the all important Austin facility) is most anticipated.
Wait a minute GM... Steering automation is in software. Why is a chip shortage affecting a software feature?
More likely GM saw all those dirtballs they threw at Tesla coming right back at them from the Feds recently, who asked everyone for their automation safety data. GM threw in the towel on zero hopes of proving that Super Cruise is safe IMO. But a chip shortage for software sounds convenient considering Tesla FSD.
More likely GM saw all those dirtballs they threw at Tesla coming right back at them from the Feds recently, who asked everyone for their automation safety data. GM threw in the towel on zero hopes of proving that Super Cruise is safe IMO. But a chip shortage for software sounds convenient considering Tesla FSD.
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
Given what we know about these companies that would absolutely be the play if they internally accepted defeat on autonomy. I don’t think it would do anymore than delay the inevitable but they will assuredly make those efforts. This is pretty basic stuff for large corporations of this type…
The more important question is not what those companies intend to do in this battle but what Tesla intends to do. The answer is NOT to sit on its laurels assuming the “crashes per million miles” data will show FSD is safe. The safety score is the very beginning of how Tesla will approach the situation and IMHO should offer investors a lot of confidence that Tesla will come to this [unfair] fight well-equipped.
To put a finer point on it, Tesla is going to drown them in irrefutable, more perfect data than currently exists. This means that the window for trying to shut down FSD/autonomy (for anyone who harbors that goal) has moved earlier - to literally right now.
For legacy auto, EVs are global warming. FSD is the asteroid.
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But it isn't just a software feature on GM vehicles. They don't install the necessary hardware unless you buy the feature. And they charge thousands for the trim levels/packages that contain SuperCruise.
Software requires a processor of some sort. Which is a type of chip. (As @MP3Mike suggests above, they don't ship the processor unless it's needed for the feature).
This is part of the silliness of GM's oddball tiered product structures. If they have a feature like this which only ships on XX% of their cars, those features run on a separate hardware platform. Lots of these features are made by outside manufacturers who also want their own processor. So they end up running 10-20 different processors for something Tesla does with 1.
It's almost 180 out from Tesla who ships everything on every car but sometimes disables things via software.
See, even VW management is right about EVs sometimes.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
"Tesla opens the doors of its Gigafactory in Grünheide on October 9, 2021 and invites citizens of Berlin and Brandenburg to a County Fair."
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
Gary’s list o’ catalysts hasn’t mattered for most of 2021. They are amazing accomplishments and milestones but the stock will move up when the big boys have positioned themselves appropriately, or when something like a split comes out of left-field. Maybe it coincides with a catalyst but the script for this year was written a while ago.
The whole thread is a must read.
The fractured tipping point continues to fracture...and tip.
Even though this has been predicted for years, it still surprises me with the speed at which the transition is happening.
Etna
Member
The photo is from the commencement ceremony for his Honorary Degree in Engineering and Technology at Yale in 2015.
SEAS Celebrates Class of 2015, Honors Innovators Elon Musk and Dean Kamen
jhm
Well-Known Member
The tax above 600k NOK is also a good motivation to buy FSD on a subscription basis rather than have it frontloaded as part of to price of the car.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Q. What is the difference between American Rules football and the rest of the world?
A. In the ROTW, they have "Player-Coaches". In American, they have "Player-Referees".
Cheers!
A. In the ROTW, they have "Player-Coaches". In American, they have "Player-Referees".
Cheers!
VW management talks about how quickly the Model 3 comes together. I expect that's going to be even smaller with the new cast front and rear end the Model Y will have in Giga Berlin. They don't compete much agains the Cybertruck in Europe, but it's likely going to be even faster to produce as well.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I suspect that in fact they do want to prioritize drivers that don't face hazards like that, situations where AP is unreliable. It's not just selecting the drivers; it's selecting the roads.I drive a section of highway with flashing yellow lights that autopilot and adaptive cruise have trouble with. They want to stop for traffic control even though my foot is on go. And it toggles back and forth between 'going to stop' and putting that away, and back on and off, until I get the Take Over Immediately.
The only thing dangerous in that situation is me not overriding the cruise - the sudden deceleration it wants to do is what is dangerous. I could cancel cruise knowing that it's coming up. I probably ought to in fact
In the end Tesla can choose who they want (among those that want) for the beta using the criteria they want to use. And I'll get to join in the fun when I get to join in. As a long time investor I hope for sooner than later in my case - I want hands on experience with this component of my investment sooner than later. I might need to buy moar!
From a purely scientific perspective, one could question the selection bias that this poses. However, from a public safety viewpoint, it is better to test in safer driving environments first before expanding into riskier roadways and riskier drivers. I believe this prioritization scheme is meant to meant to minimize the total number of accidents that occur over the course of the test. If problems are detected early on under safer conditions, then FSD can be improved before increasing exposure.
If bad AP behavior is the thing keeping you from getting high priority, I wouldn't take it personally.
Do we really think they can sell the car (with all those different platforms and chip suppliers for each sub-system) but the Supercruise is the only chipset that stands in the way? Very low probablility that one sub-system is affected, while all other semiconductor sources in every other vehicle sub-systems are secured. There's either a chip shortage or not. I happen to know there is, but we are designing by first looking a part availabilty. Any good embedded engineer can switch platforms. In our case, we had to go for a processor with a higher port count and 2mm x 2mm wider, same chip really. Lots available there. But someone has to want to switch.
So this could again be back to the supplier (or contractor) of the system, and they may not see a Supergood money channel from GM... because they also watched the Tesla Beta videos and saw the writing on the wall. I also agree with other posters in that suppliers will likely favor certain customers when tough choices need to be made between competing customers. And who's nearly the only one showing growth around automotive? Tesla has one of the strongest positions for long-term, volume contract negotiations.
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