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This is a bit off-topic. And perhaps I shouldn't even reveal this, lest people try to move here.

The cost of living in Silicon Valley isn't "high" so much as it's just front-loaded. It's meant to weed out the weaker ones, like intro comp sci or organic chem for pre-meds. The sticker price of a house here is astronomical, but actually if you crunch the numbers the total cost of ownership of a home in SV over the long term is not so high, actually lower than in Austin. Your first decade in Silicon Valley you're going to be saying "Oh my god this place is insane!" 2nd decade, "Huh, not as insane as I thought." 3rd decade in SV, "What am I gonna do with all this money?"
Hmm. I'm just starting my fourth decade in Silicon Valley. Just what is it you think I'm going to say? BTW, you are totally wrong on the first three decades, at least for me.
 
This is a bit off-topic. And perhaps I shouldn't even reveal this, lest people try to move here.

The cost of living in Silicon Valley isn't "high" so much as it's just front-loaded. It's meant to weed out the weaker ones, like intro comp sci or organic chem for pre-meds. The sticker price of a house here is astronomical, but actually if you crunch the numbers the total cost of ownership of a home in SV over the long term is not so high, actually lower than in Austin. Your first decade in Silicon Valley you're going to be saying "Oh my god this place is insane!" 2nd decade, "Huh, not as insane as I thought." 3rd decade in SV, "What am I gonna do with all this money?"
You forgot to mention the part where you're supposed to start a company in SV and take it public to become a billionaire.

The vast majority of people, probably 99.9999%, aren't starting the next SV tech company that becomes Facebook and will never wonder what they are going to do with all this money.
 
I haven’t seen this linked:

Agile at Tesla, by Joe Justice

Joe is apparently a big name in agile, and in this video he details how Tesla does agile. I recommend watching it, there are a lot of details, including how Elon works at Tesla, plus some SpaceX stuff in the end (which is still relevant, as all Musk companies use these methods). The start is a bit slow, and there’s some humblebrag moments.
Thank you so much.

I thought I had soaked up every scrap of information on Tesla available on the internet. I thought I couldn't get more bullish. Little did I know this channel was out there.

I watched a different Joe Justice video just now in which he said that Tesla runs the agile method on a 3 hour sprint cycle with 12 hour work shifts.

A mind-blowing example of their agility was his description of the Giga Nevada construction process
--> Buy land
--> In the very next sprint--literally the next one--move everyone that was in some warehouse experimenting with battery production into a cheap popup sprung tent on the land
--> In the next sprint after the tent is set up, start setting up production equipment
--> Then as soon as physically possible after that, start constructing the building around the tent.
-->Have construction workers, building design engineers and manufacturing engineers ask the people in the tent what they need and feedback on their design of the future production line every single hour 24/7 until the job is done.
--> Design the manufacturing line based on how the work in the tent is going.
--> Then, when that modular square of the factory is done, if production speed does not immediately increase, in the first sprint, upon activation of the line...rip out the offending equipment and start over because that means you failed.

Upon completion of each square of the building, move the tent to an adjacent spot and start the same process over with another portion of the production system.

This reminds me of how at AI Day, Elon commented that the goal of Dojo and sole metric of its success is if the Training team wants to stop using the old training hardware. I now realize he probably meant that Dojo is expected to improve productivity within hours of going online.

When Elon says that advanced manufacturing is going to be Tesla's long-term competitive advantage, I thought with my manufacturing background and religious watching of Munro Live teardowns that I knew what Elon meant. On some level I did understand, but this is on a higher level than I even knew was possible.
 
Once GF Austin, Berlin open .. shouldn't Tesla pause to see at what pace consumption keeps up with production?
IMO in 2023, with Texas+Berlin ramping up, Tesla will announce new factory construction in places around the world like India, Brazil, South Africa and another one in China... so that there are *FOUR* simultaneously under construction. Tesla has the cash to pay for all of them. Production starting in 2024-5.

This is a critical part of their roadmap to reach their goal of 20million vehicles/yr by 2030. Model2/Q will be under construction at all of the new ones
 
IMO in 2023, with Texas+Berlin ramping up, Tesla will announce new factory construction in places around the world like India, Brazil, South Africa and another one in China... so that there are *FOUR* simultaneously under construction. Tesla has the cash to pay for all of them. Production starting in 2024-5.

This is a critical part of their roadmap to reach their goal of 20million vehicles/yr by 2030. Model2/Q will be under construction at all of the new ones

I did have a crack at working out possible factory locations here:-

2 things were apparent:-
  1. Any attempt to model this needs lots of assumptions...
  2. Tesla needs to be very aggressive about new factory locations possibly as early as 2023...

20 Million vehicles per year by 2030 is a tough stretch target, the kind of target only a company like Tesla would shoot for,.
 
I did have a crack at working out possible factory locations here:-

2 things were apparent:-
  1. Any attempt to model this needs lots of assumptions...
  2. Tesla needs to be very aggressive about new factory locations possibly as early as 2023...

20 Million vehicles per year by 2030 is a tough stretch target, the kind of target only a company like Tesla would shoot for,.

One axis that is worth a think is the relationship between local demand vs local cost of production. India might be a lousy market but a fantastic export hub. I bet Tesla having had so much success in China on the cost and competence front has to be tempted to go to that honey pot again before say another euro plant with high cost and regulatory load. Isn't it Indonesia that is trying to foster its battery industry? Might be able to kill a few birds at once there.

I worry a bit about black or grey swan and China and while it would be tempting I'm sure for them to spin up another factory there that's a lot of eggs in one basket.

Australia is a small market but a good raw resource input. But I'd like to see the custom model Oy that presumably looks like a land cruiser.
 
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One axis that is worth a think is the relationship between local demand vs local cost of production. India might be a lousy market but a fantastic export hub. I bet Tesla having had so much success in China on the cost and competence front has to be tempted to go to that honey pot again before say another euro plant with high cost and regulatory load. Isn't it Indonesia that is trying to foster its battery industry? Might be able to kill a few birds at once there.

I worry a bit about black or grey swan and China and while it would be tempting I'm sure for them to spin up another factory there that's a lot of eggs in one basket.

Australia is a small market but a good raw resource input. But I'd like to see the custom model Oy that presumably looks like a land cruiser.
IMO a factory to make batteries for energy storage in Australia makes a lot of sense, a factory to make cars in Australia is a real long shot..

India is far more likely, not just because of the size of the local market.

As you mention it is a good location for an export hub, but also ahead of Australia on engineering talent and well ahead on local parts suppliers.
Australia closed its car industry a few years ago, parts suppliers also mostly closed, it is hard to reverse that.
 
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Industry answer is chips. 4680 or other battery issues doesn't sound right because so many model S were parked in lots. With X I wonder if it is insufficient supply of 4680 cells causing the delay.

I'm optimistic that they may be able to resolve the part issues with those partially built Model S cars in Q4.
Model X also probably happening, perhaps in small volumes in Q4.

We don't know if Model X is using 4680 cells,,,

Some production from Austin and Berlin possible in Q4.

Q4 production and deliveries just as good as Q3, probably better...

Q1/Q2 2022 - significant production ramps likely, 4680 cell production hopefully progressing well, chips/parts issues probably resolved.
Berlin and Austin production ramps should be the big news story in 2022.
 
So somehow, tomorrow I’m going over to a billionaire’s house of a large internet media giant.

How long after introductions is it appropriate to advise them to put all their liquid assets into Tesla?

"Well I guess if I'm the only one that is willing to go all in on TSLA, we know whose house the party next year will be at. Toodallooo and good day to you sirs."
 
Industry answer is chips. 4680 or other battery issues doesn't sound right because so many model S were parked in lots. With X I wonder if it is insufficient supply of 4680 cells causing the delay.

Ugh, I can not believe we are still having this discussion: Model S/X is NOT getting a 4680 bty pack in the forseeable future (meaning at least several years). Elon has said so, multiple times: Tesla will NOT turn off a 10 GWh/yr supply of battery cells (those 18650s imported from Japan) while they are still cell constrained.

How do you not get this? :rolleyes:

Maybe in several years, after both Austin and Berlin are fully ramped with local 4680 production, and the new Roadster is fully supplied with its 200 KWh packs, and Tesla Semi production is not limited by the availability of 4680 cells for its 600-to-1,000 KWh packs, then MAYBE Tesla will update the Palladium S/X to use 4680 structural packs.

But there is a limit on the number of new IDRA Gigapresses can make each year (likely required to produce structural packs), so DO NOT hold your breath. Those presses will go first to Models 2/Z factories, then Robotaxi...

I estimate its perhaps 7 years until Tesla switches Models S/X to 4680s.

Deal with it! :p

Cheers!