Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Everything is relative:

View attachment 717674

Tesla is the only Top-15 company listed on the S&P 500 in the green at 6:40 ET.

This is macros (as I predicted on Saturday).

Tesla remains the only Top-15-Cap winner in the S&P 500. Facebook is the biggest loser.

Cheers!

 

[Words of HABIT]

Very positive news report from Yahoo Finance regarding P&D #s. "Who would have thunk..."

Tesla hits new quarterly record, delivers 241,300 vehicles in Q3

Tesla delivered 241,300 vehicles globally in its third-quarter. Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi and Julie Hyman weigh in.

ca.finance.yahoo.com

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Just when you think $TSLAQ can't stoop any lower......

 

[madodel]

OT:

Facebook is down and their stock is crashing...

Was there a fire involved. If so then sell, sell, sell.

 

[bkp_duke]

Just when you think $TSLAQ can't stoop any lower......

View attachment 717828

If this is all TSLAQ can come up with, we're in great shape.

 

[ThisStockGood]

Guys and gals, TSLA performance today is impressive! All tech deep red about 3-5 % and TSLA +1 %

 

[hacer]

That's a foul! I was only using the comparators brought up in the discussion (SV politics versus Texas politics). But I welcome you to choose your own area comparators and present the results.

The point as it relates to Tesla is that even in the heart of Mordor, the company enjoys a great deal of support. Perhaps even majority support. And the orc general happily takes Tesla's phone calls! Can tech folks from SV accept these nuances? I'm hearing that on the whole "no," but please let me know if that is wrong.

Of course, Tesla can't recreate California's beautiful weather or scenery (in certain areas).

Sure, let's compare similar population sizes: Austin (pop 951k) with San Jose (pop 1.03M). They have near identical political heterogeneity (and leanings). This is not foul because San Jose is in SV, and Austin is the location for the new Tesla factory. I can't say how any employee feels about moving to follow their job. My guess is most don't like it for all sorts of reasons including uprooting from friends, family, children's schools, the hassle of relocating, etc.

My point was that it is unfair to compare heterogeneity in two very different sized groups. Consider the heterogeneity of you (@Rarity) and one other, let's say @Artful Dodger to a group of any 20 other contributors to this forum. Unless you take a lot of time cherry picking the other group, the larger group will always be more heterogeneous than the smaller one. It is an abuse of statistics to even compare them.

 

[navguy12]

Here is the updated quarterly chart showing the development of deliveries by quarter over the last few years. It's one of my favourites because it's a compelling visualisation of how fast Tesla is growing. Courtesy of Statista.

Number of Tesla vehicles delivered worldwide from 1st quarter 2016 to 3rd quarter 2021​

View attachment 717785

If this data where plotted on a logarithmic scale, one could see the rate of change accelerating (or levelling out).

 

[bkp_duke]

Sure, let's compare similar population sizes: Austin (pop 951k) with San Jose (pop 1.03M). They have near identical political heterogeneity (and leanings). This is not foul because San Jose is in SV, and Austin is the location for the new Tesla factory. I can't say how any employee feels about moving to follow their job. My guess is most don't like it for all sorts of reasons including uprooting from friends, family, children's schools, the hassle of relocating, etc.

My point was that it is unfair to compare heterogeneity in two very different sized groups. Consider the heterogeneity of you (@Rarity) and one other, let's say @Artful Dodger to a group of any 20 other contributors to this forum. Unless you take a lot of time cherry picking the other group, the larger group will always be more heterogeneous than the smaller one. It is an abuse of statistics to even compare them.

It's not like Fremont is being closed down. Aside from management positions, most of the workforce is staying put and it's just new hires for Austin.

These Austin vs. SV arguments crack me up. You guys do realize that Tesla is growing at an astounding pace and both factories are welcome, right?


EDIT - plus, it's manufacturing. Yes there is skill involved, but it's not rocket science . . . oh, wait, even some rocket scientists have been moving to the boonies of south TX.

 

[jbcarioca]

Yes, I think F and GM, even though their performance has been crap, will survive (though as much smaller entities). Most of Stellantis will probably die, though some brands like Jeep might survive.

Countries that are huge ICE exporters will have a harder time doing this. Ford and GM's revenues are only equal to ~1% of US GDP, so a bailout will be comparatively cheap.

For countries like Germany and Japan, where their ICE companies revenues are >10% of GDP? ...rough times.

This is overly pessimistic. Stellantis already has quite competitive BEV's like:
Peugeot 208 e-gt, e-2008, e-Rifter and e-Travveler.
Citroën Ē-C4, Ē-Space Tourer, Ē-Berlingo,
Fiat 500
Fiat e-Ducato
Of course those are sold in Europe and some in other markets, even Brazil.
The Fiat 500 will never go to the US, probably, but is a brilliant BEV ground up with quite spectacular technology including level 2 autopilot, like aid that works even in Rio de Janeiro horrendous traffic, excellent Tom-Tom based mapping, voice recognition that actually works as well and Tesla (in both Portuguese and English I've used it) and so on. That is their first 100%ground up and it is proving very popular.
Plus Opel and Vauxhall models

The others I list are trucks and vans that are huge in Europe, not even sold in US.

Official Global Website

Welcome to the Official Global Website of Stellantis, a leading global automaker and provider of innovative mobility solutions.

www.stellantis.com

The problem with our enthusiasm is that many of us imagine it is impossible for others to move quickly to adopt BEV and do so very well.
Check out a review or two of the Fiat 500 and the Peugeot 208 e-GT.

There will be failures among major auto companies today, no doubt. It is rather facile to write everyone off without thinking about what they are doing.

For most times will be hard, not least because of legacy workforce and traditions. Stellantis seems to be written off by the US observers because they have zero clue what the PSA/FCA merger actually included, nor how quickly they resuscitated the corpses of Opel and Vauxhall. Carlos Tavares actually has rewritten much of the recent history and has succeeded in rewriting expectations.

Just take a trip to Europe or visit me in Rio de Janeiro, drive the new Fiat 500 and tell me again how they're going broke. Of course that requires understanding what urban mobility is all about most of the world.

Tesla does understand these markets. The new Chinese and German designs will be built and created to serve those markets. They may never be sold in the US.
But they'll replace legions of Escots and Fiestas in the UK, Polos and Golfs all over Europe and will be at home all over Southeast Asia, much of Africa, South America. In short Tesla will compete with the mass markets everywhere. That will be fun because companies like Stellantis will be making conpetitve products.

Now to be serious. Ford has left markets that were core to the success of the 1920's and half a century after, US cars, Brazil, once their largest market outside the US. They cannot move quickly enough. GM surrendered n Europe after success since 1920, leaving one country after another, then surrendering in Europe. The Japanese and Korean makers are bizarrely lagging and largely ignored the sets fo their amazing successes.

Suddenly there is Tesla and a glimmer fo Europe and not too much else but...
China, the world's leader and most innovative in BEV's. Brands like JAC, Chery and Geely are joined by the upstarts like Great Wall's WEY, NIO, Xpeng and more.
While most fo the world ignores them they're becoming better and better.
Oddly, bizarrely, only Tesla really seems to understand and competes with great success. In the meantime BMW, Daimler, VAG, GM and others cede much fo their product development to their Chinese partners but do not manage to import the ethos that makes all this happen.

There si reason to be critical of traditional OEM's. Still a handful really do understand, one fo whom is Carlos Tavares. Unlike VAG's Diess, Tavares actually has the power to make major changes.

Sorry for the rant. I only want to make certain that we understand some people are learning from Tesla.

 

[ZachF]

An island of green in a sea of red...

I guess that'll do pig

 

[Singuy]

Wow, QQQ closed right at the support of 353. Tesla continues to be okay as the market corrects. Lets hope thestockchannel is right and this is the bottom.

 

[StealthP3D]

It's very obvious to me that there's just a ton of money sitting on the sidelines that is unwilling to jump in until they feel they've "gotten in after the correction". Sucks that it has to be this way, but it will remove a artificial ceiling for stocks and especially TSLA. Until the full correction happens, it's gonna constantly be this overhanging fear of a macro selloff, no matter how stupid it is.

The other way this kind of situation can resolve is for the market to to start rising from lack of selling volume causing the pressure to become unbearable for those sitting on the sidelines.

 

[Johann Koeber]

Since its after hours, let me share my joy of having won the ticket lottery for the Grünheide Fair on Saturday at Tesla. I'm going with one son and two Grandsons.

Anyone care to meet?

 

[bkp_duke]

Wow, if true

https://twitter.com/x/status/1445104389014835213

I'm "in the industry" and trust me, this outage is far more widespread than facebook and related companies.

 

[StealthP3D]

When you buy a stock and it goes down, it's not your fault - the hedgies, the market makers, and the pump & dumpers scammed you.

When you sell a stock at a loss, it's your fault, because you push the button.

That's just how most people think.

You forgot the other half of the thought process:

When you buy a stock that goes up, it's because you are a brilliant investor!

 

[avoigt]

I'm one of the few outsides of Berlin and Brandenburg that received an invitation and will report from and after the event.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1444720025366106118

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Call walls" at 800 and again at 820. No particularly large "Put walls" to provide support up at these levels. Volume will need to be very strong to prevent MMs from manipulating the SP. And it's a long way to the river... (the Friday Close):

View attachment 717679

Yup, this day panned out as advertised: MMs manipulation. SP closed near the "C-P Brkpt".

Looking at Options Volume for the day, a "Put Wall" may be forming at the 790 Strike price, and without a lot of open Calls beneath them to tempt MMs (but we won't know today's final Open Interest until the update tomorrow at 7 a.m.)

GLTA.

Cheers!

 

[Rarity]

Sure, let's compare similar population sizes: Austin (pop 951k) with San Jose (pop 1.03M). They have near identical political heterogeneity (and leanings).

This rather proves my point. Those pages show the political leanings of Travis County (1.27 million pop) and Santa Clara County (1.93 million pop), not the cities of Austin and San Jose. By your reasoning, Santa Clara County as the bigger jurisdiction should be more diverse politically. But it's not.

I don't want to belabor the point. I don't believe there is any real controversy here. Texas is only leaning red, but the perception among some prospective Tesla employees in Silicon Valley is otherwise.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

And that’ll be the end of this nonsencical tug of war between Silicon Valley and Texas. It’s been going on for way too long.