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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Anyone know how intelligent sheep are? Or goats? I'm thinking Tesla needs to develop a non-motorized solar tracker solution that trains grazing animals to rotate rows of panels manually in massive solar farms.

Like maybe an apple is dispensed every 20 minutes but only if each little section of panels is pushed to optimal angle. They'd figure it out eventually. Save all the tracking hardware and just mount them on a pivot system.

Think it's doable? All you'd need is to add a treat dispenser to each string inverter and it pops when peak generation is achieved. Maybe get some alpacas to rub down the panels if they get dusty?
That's actually an intriguing idea, if it can be paired with grazing plants underneath the panels in addition to having the animals do the mechanical work of cleaning. I think agrovoltaics is going to be big and I've been hoping Tesla would develop an agrovoltaic design for their utility scale solar.

 
I think ARK has a level of conviction and research backing most of their stock picks...
They probably don't expect every pick to be a winner, just for enough winners to happen to justify diversity.
It may turn out that 100% Tesla was the right option, but why have a fund for that?
In the past their strategy has worked well, because they have also rotated back into Tesla when the stock price dropped.
The fund is suppose to do the research for them. That is what people are paying for. They are not paying ARK to hold Tesla. They are paying ARK to weed out terrible companies and stick with winners. They are expecting ARK to do TMC level worth of research and beyond without them having to read a thing about any of the companies.

So if turns out Tsla is the winner ARK keeps selling, and ends up buying junk with all that profit taking, then they are not doing the job they were paid to do. This is why arbitrary holding rules are stupid. You are paid to provide a high return, and if your rules are hindering that then what is the point.

As a side note, I am not very impressed by their research on Tesla. Never once have I heard operating leverage out of their mouth. They have always defended their price target with hopes and dreams(ie robotaxi, ride hailing) and not really on much else. It's this kind of BS that makes even Elon thinks autonomous is priced in to the stock price.
 
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Yeah, but that is exactly what people pay Ark to do. If they wanted to buy-and-hold TSLA they would do that themselves. (I hold some Ark funds for exactly that reason.) Of course, there are some exceptions like people who could buy some of the Ark mutual funds but aren't allowed to buy TSLA directly. (Of course they would be better off buying a fund more concentrated in TSLA like the Barons Partner Fund.)

Yes and I understand why people would want to have some funds in ARK to diversify. I completely understand and get the appeal. I just wonder at what point in said scenario I laid out to people start to bail on the fund.

It's a unique scenario for sure. Rarely do you have a company with such a clear roadmap for the next 2 years at minimum that is growing 70-80% per year when it's already at such a large scale revenue-wise.
 
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Here we go. Made CNBC.

Regurgitating Bloomberg.
New retirement plan. Get a friend to start working at Apple. Then I start working there. Get my friend to make fun of my hairline and call me names. Sue Apple for $100 BILLION! (I just have to make sure we are in CA, since judges in other states can't be this stupid).
 
If it is real, while I know the amount will be appealed and come down to something like 1 million like the other person got in the link I posted further up.....man Elon you gotta get the company out of California. For reference, George Floyd's family got 27 million
Unfortunately they can't just close Fremont when it's literally only one of 2 factories Tesla has in the whole world.

I'm sure once Austin and Berlin are ramped, and Bangalore/Mumbai and another North American factory are nearing completion, Tesla will finally begin the processes needed to close Fremont. But that is still years away, and until then there's not a lot they can do about being in such a business-hostile state as California.
 
As a side note, I am not very impressed by their research on Tesla.
I do wonder about that,,, but sometimes being right is all that matters...

We don't have much research on Genomics or some of their other stock picks.. again they may turn out to be right... simply because they are in the right sectors at the right time... disruption is the right horse to back.,..
 
That's actually an intriguing idea, if it can be paired with grazing plants underneath the panels in addition to having the animals do the mechanical work of cleaning. I think agrovoltaics is going to be big and I've been hoping Tesla would develop an agrovoltaic design for their utility scale solar.

And good for crop rotation and fertilization if you can make them semi-mobile!
 
But that is still years away, and until then there's not a lot they can do about being in such a business-hostile state as California.
Weird. I could've sworn Tesla was publicly supported and scaled almost entirely in California? I must've been hallucinating. I mean.....how on earth could they have achieved all this exponential growth if they were in CA all this time?

(* not that I'm a CA fan or anything)
 
I do wonder about that,,, but sometimes being right is all that matters...

We don't have much research on Genomics or some of their other stock picks.. again they may turn out to be right... simply because they are in the right sectors at the right time... disruption is the right horse to back.,..
Nope, being right consistently is all that matters. Just Tesla alone ARK has been pretty wrong on many sales. They also have bought junk.

I was going to invest into ARK until I realized they invest in obvious junk companies. Junk companies that are still dropping since March that I have done some surface DD on when they were high flying since late last year.

I am always never once impressed by their interviews on Tesla. "Tesla gather more data so they will win autonomy" is all I hear. Rob can talk for hours defending Tesla and never mention autonomy.

I will give Cathie credit on her macro view which is insightful, but the other stuff is not what is cracked up to be.
 
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MUST WATCH VIDEO FOR INVESTORS


Brand new public info (to my knowledge) about the inner workings of Tesla:

> Complimentary valet team accepts your car at the office entrance and takes it away to charge if it's an EV. No wasted time on parking.

> The office has nice showers, a good gym, world class complimentary artisan coffee bar, and world class gourmet food. Everyone has the same quality and access with no preferential treatment. There is no executive tier or anything. Oh, and the office also has desks and chairs, but they're mostly deserted, because everyone's on the shop floor.

> Elon has worked every job position on the production line at least once, drilling holes, gluing stuff together, snapping parts into place, and programming robots. The rest of the corporate management team is running power tools and robots too, for at least some of their time. And it's not light work either. Every able-bodied employee lifts 45 lb/20 kg objects on a daily basis.

> They view the entire operation as hardware programming, consisting fundamentally of CAD (Computer Aided Design), CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics), FEA (Finite Element Analysis), and G code (for programming the robots). They aim to have everything so efficient that the "compile time" for the hardware design is less than a day between design and test, ideally less than 5 seconds. Humans are solely for creative intuitive problem-solving; automation is for everything else.

> Tesla has incredibly detailed data about every customer's cars, service profile, likes and dislikes, and more. Every measurement the car performs is fed into the digital twin model which is fed in aggregate into machine learning models that prominently display what customers want all over Tesla facilities. Everyone has apps on their company phone showing this information. Teams swarm to solve problems on a 3-6 hour sprint cycle to push these metrics higher. A direct, clean feedback loop between owners and the design-build-test cycle.

> Everyone from the moment of hire is authorized to spend company money, but is accountable for being able to justify the decision from first principles reasoning if asked. A newbie could buy a million dollar robot or initiate search for new land acquisition on day one--with a sufficiently compelling rationale. Penalties only apply to bad intention, repeated severe foolishness, or slow rate of attempted innovation. Mistakes are treated as opportunities to improve decision-making skills.

> Tesla does not have a central procurement or supply chain organization. They do have a central database with information about different suppliers, which teams use to just figure out what they need and do their own shopping. The Master of Coin and his Funding Team, which is one of the only centralized organizations in the whole company, mainly is responsible for ensuring there is a sufficiently massive pile of cash for everyone to spend.

> The three hour sprint cycle is a critical factor in getting people to leave their egos at the door, because no one really feels a sense of personal exclusive ownership over any design or process. Imagine if I'm on day shift and I make some decisions...well night shift is going to improve on them and hand me something better than I did. And then I'll improve their work. Thus no one develops ugly baby syndrome/not-invented-here bias.

> Every single car is put through fully-automated, non-destructive, regulatory homologation testing on the "Bamboo Line" to legally certify it for sale. Government officials are permanently stationed on this line for oversight. The reason: Teslas are like snowflakes; the design of the car changes every 3 hours roughly in every position on the line, and so each car might be different than the previous one.

> The Bamboo Line was the origin of Tesla's autonomous driving program.

> Elon's sleeping bag is on the floor in the North Paint building. He still sleeps there often when working at Tesla. This has not stopped now that Production Hell is over.

> Tesla does not really use PowerPoint except for public (recruiting) presentations. In fact, there is essentially no reporting other than face to face conversations with management with the topic of discussion in front of everyone's faces. Reporting is unnecessary because nearly the entire company is having a party on the production line and information travels at the speed of gossip aided by robust visual controls and software measuring progress on all company goals. Managers are working the line too. Gemba is not something managers pat themselves on the back for making a few hours a day of time for, like at most manufacturers; Gemba is the lifestyle at Tesla.

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They are a much flatter and leaner organization than I think anyone outside the company truly realizes. Imagine the STAGGERING implications for Tesla's overhead growth and operating leverage as production explodes this decade. This is how they achieve such incredible innovation on a mere $2-3 billion annual R&D budget. The very concept of a segregated R&D budget almost has no meaning at Tesla, because for them, all spending is, in some sense, a form of R&D.

This is a fascinating hybrid of capitalism and socialism, individualism and collectivism rolled into one. It's a meritocracy yet classless. It's personal empowerment and liberty with social accountability and long-term altruistic orientation. It's a flat UBI of $19.50/hr and merit-based options to buy deeply discounted ownership equity in the means of production. All tools are shared collaboratively. Everyone is taken care of, but there is no coddling nor sympathy for those not willing to work like beasts. We witness what will soon be the most financially profitable enterprise of all time achieve that by pursuing the most ambitious social goals of all time.

😯🤯😎

The perpetual homologation was wild. At least there is the flexibility in the oversight system to allow this even though it strikes me as probably pointless busy work. Service has to be a little wild when every car has its own inventory. Ah — this car was made by taking apart wholesale’d google glass bought on eBay for the rear view mirror microcontroller! Does make me wonder if competitors and their chip problems are worsened by lacking this part of the production system.

the overall approach got me thinking about arranging schools this way. What if each teacher was assigned a different set of kids every week? Teachers would have to work together on consolidated lesson plans but then their would be more teachers per kid per year to add cross fertilization.
 
Now this make FSD for 10K looks like a bargain. I have absolutely no idea what capabilities Rivian is offering. Any clue? Mobileye? Nvidia?