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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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2030 will definitely be more than 20mil. That was just another warning to the rest of the world that Tesla is not messing around and they have no more time left, they should really do something, besides big statements.

Everyone should read ZERO TO ONE, what we are seeing is exactly what Thiel is explaining always happens with companies that never existed when they come alive and they have no competition.

Amazing times!

DON’T MESS WITH ELON!!!

I would put more than 20 million vehicles per year by 2030 in the "more likely than not" category, maybe 80% certain, since it is so far off. But, yeah, that's exactly where it looks like this trajectory is headed. And perhaps as many as 28 million or more. It's very hard to forecast because it depends so heavily upon exactly how the vehicle market evolves over that time.

Elon didn't verbalize this, but I got the feeling he is starting to view this parts/battery shortage as a time to re-group and strategize for the next big growth phase next year while playing low-key now. Time to bask in the glory and take a breather while keeping a close eye on the ball. Their accomplishments to date have been stupendous and now is the time to regroup, let some key people have a break, bring new people up to speed and prepare for the next major expansion. It's all about the performance of the ever expanding pool of people at Tesla they need to make this work. Both the Austin and Berlin site should draw some excellent new talent in over the next year.

What the share price does between now and then is an entirely different question. I would suggest that even coasting through the rest of the year on the production capacity they have already built could still result in a major demand spike for Tesla shares. The market is often very slow to respond to what we can all see plainly. Even though the information we have is all public, it takes time for people to digest it. Mainstream media FUD stories, as silly as they are, slow peoples ability to see the truth. Even executives at legacy automakers are subject to this, even if to a lessor degree since they have more direct evidence staring them in the face.
 
He honestly didn't know what it was. Reading between the lines I got the feeling his Tesla account might be so unique he doubts he even has a safety score. but he didn't want to say that because he honestly didn't know how that applied to whether he has a safety score and that it would be viewed as the billionaire being 'special". Never mind that he's the CEO!

But you can be certain his Tesla account is not like all of our accounts.
Also, it sounds like he uses FSD all the time so he only has to worry about Forced Disengagements.
 
I think folks who yawned coming out of this missed this fact.

The 4680 is a huge part of Tesla's future plans. As of the last earnings call, it was basically dead in the water due to issued scaling production. Over the past few weeks we've been getting hints they solved those issues. This meeting confirmed that the production issues with the 4680 are behind us and they can start pushing hard on getting all of the awesomeness promised at battery day behind us.

That means:

  • Cost of batteries for Model Y goes down by... 50%? That lops $3-5k off the cost of a Model Y. And it will likely perform better as well.
  • Cybertruck, Semi, and Roadster production are no longer blocked... this is huge.
  • Tesla $25k becomes possible.
  • Once production ramps up, they will convert the Model 3, Model S, and Model X batteries will drop too.
  • Tesla's battery production will increase due to smaller facility requirements.
  • This means Teslas battery cost will going forward be 30-50% less than the competition.

Maybe this isn't "News" because it was widely rumored, but for me anyhow any time really good news moves from the rumor to confirmed category I get amped.

I could agree with that if we are looking forward 2-3 years, not before. There are significant R&D costs to expense as the 4680 goes into large scale production and they won't hit the sweet price point that was forecast during battery day until all the kinks are worked out and production equipment is humming along in high volume. It's very hard to estimate exactly when that will be, it will be a gradually improving process even after they are in commercial production. On top of that, Elon made it clear he would still be buying as many batteries as their suppliers could produce for as far as the eye can see. Even if in-house cell production is much cheaper, purchased cells will increase the average cost per installed cell.
 
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I couldn't bear to listen to the event after the 3rd question with 3 minutes.

My only question: Will Model Y's ship with 4680's out of Berlin or Austin in Q4 or Q1?

Curious to know as well. My wife’s MY is estimated late nov-early dec. I wonder if we will have a chance w the 4680s…

Great meeting btw. The future looks bright next 5years.
 
If Tesla doesn't decide on a new Gigafactory location until 2023, would that imply that their capex would shrink dramatically next year once Austin and Berlin are done? If so, seems like that's even better EPS for the next 18 months or so.
They intend to expand both Austin and Berlin to do 4x500k vehicles, so basically they are already building 4x giga shanghai. And they intend to ramp to 200GWh of batteries at both of these plants, which is basically 10x Giga Nevada. So they will have to invest a lot in doing all this.

But yeah, EPS will go sky high once they are done ramping up Y at all these locations.
 
This guy should be offering strategies to selling land in Austin.
What the blazes are you looking at Tuskegee AL real estate for?
I do admit, though, that having realtor.com’s concierge team for a $58,000 parcel certainly is intriguing 🤪
 
I guess this might be the last time we hear from Elon for a bit since he may not be on the earnings call.
Elon doesn't seem to have too much trouble with getting word out when he wants.

It's just the bit where he has to listen to a bunch of investors and field a bunch of nonsense questions he's doing away with.

Musk didn't need to be up there. All of this could have been handled equally well by a letter to shareholders or even a series of tweets.
 
Yeah, and Kato Rd only has go it alone through April 2022 when the last of the LFP chemistry Patents expire in the USA. Personally, I'd kill for a Texas Y which is also a 70 KWh powerwall (2-way charger/inverter onboard).

Solar on the garage roof FTW... :D

Cheers!
GR8 plate, if only for those in the know: LFP FTW

BTW, FYI: NIO is a VIE, at least in the USA—for those who care (not that I do)—so watch yer selves.

EOT
 
In the meeting he sounded like he thought there might only be about 1,000 people with a score of 100. I think he's crazy but it seems he doesn't understand how many people are anxious to test it out.

I took it to mean that they would pick about 1000 of people with scores of 100 and wait a bit and then release it to the rest of the 100s on a later date and work down in batches from there.


Note: I was replying to the verbal content not the tweet. Thus quoting "In the meeting he sounded like".
 
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Tesla now has three times as many twitter followers (11.1 million) as the next highest company, Mercedes (3.7 million). They were about the same two years ago.
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It’s pretty hard to get a 100 if you’re doing any kind of in town driving. If you leave enough space to avoid braking hard, then you get people pulling out in front of you because there’s a bigger than normal gap in traffic, and you have to brake hard anyway. I could see there being only around 1,000 people that drive any decent amount of miles with scores of 100. It would seem strange if they gave it to people with only a few miles driven, but I guess technically they will get it since they have a score of 100. Will be interesting to see how they roll it out.