Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[nativewolf]

With Tesla ramping up, ... I expect the increasing EV deliveries will create Supply demand Imbalance curve for Oil in 2023/2024 similar to what happened in 2014.

Basically Saudi starts panicking seeing the EV adoption and will want to drive US and Canadian Oil producers so that they can survive for longer time selling oil. So, they will flood the oil market with more supply crashing the price of oil. Even though its painful for Saudi, the goal is to create way more pain for US and Canadian producers and drive them out of market. In 2014 oil crashed to $25 per barrel from $100 in matter of months over just 2% of extra supply.

about right i guess, make trade if you really think so

 

[HG Wells]

Weather for Giga festival looks good. NO rain (5%) and high around 60 F.
Don't see any installed superchargers. Hope the Y's can stay charged.

No, I'm not there.

 

[nativewolf]

Limited bandwidth floating here in the Bahamas . Thanks for the running commentary.
View attachment 718972

Some people will do anything to avoid Covid

 

[Buckminster]

MY with 4680s is the new MY.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1446402790205579264

How many are they trying to recruit? 100+?

 

[nativewolf]

About the end of last year, the stock had gone crazy, s&p inclusion was a given, Dr. Mike Burry of shortsville fame (and not an idiot) said very publicly that Tesla was way over valued and for EM to grab cash while getting was good. EM grabbed some cash. Shortly thereafter he announced he was shorting.

It was very good of him not to announce he was shorting before he told EM to grab some cash. Basically super super low cost funds for Tesla. He could have done very well if he cashed out on some of those positions, he shorted at the high and it fell a few hundred from when he shorted. Not sure where he is today, short interest is pretty low and that man is not an idiot so I wonder if he cashed out of most of the positions? MB is not GJ.

I will say this - I remember one earnings call when they said specifically they had no plans to do a capital raise and then turned right around and issued one shortly thereafter. If people want to naked short in front of this earnings report...well, you know what they say about money and fools.

 

[Etna]

We didnt hear a peep on the refreshed model X or how that whole refresh is going etc.

I was parked next to a Model X Plaid a couple of days ago here in Quebec City. Car has dealership plate and is here apparently to "experience" our trademark winter and potholes. Vin #325791

 

[ZachF]

The factory ramps and cybertruck schedules are what I expected, but I’m mildly disappointed by the lack of verifiable 4680 progress, and no new gigafactories operational until late 2024 at the very earliest.

Increasing Fremont production by the factor stated would be phenomenal. Any ideas how they plan to accomplish that? I don’t mean to sound negative. I believe Elon, I’d just like to know how.

There is an ultimate 5-6m units per year from the existing four factories. That’s enough to take them to 2025 for a 50% CAGR.

 

[FS_FRA]

But they will have a workers council, nothing to do with unionization. Typically the workers councils are an important stakeholder and have influence. I am sure some of our German colleagues could weigh in here and educate the cultural challenged, I am not really sure of the mechanism just that they are a force.

At the risk of heading too far OT.... they key elements of German works councils to keep in mind:

- works councils (Betriebsrat) are elected, depending on the size of the organisation (min 5 full-time employees)
- sie of works council determined by number of employees, e.g. 1000 employees = 15 works council members, 9000 = 35
- only "workers" can be part of the works council, management staff may not
- established in law since the 1920s - today informed by the BetrVG (if you want to google it), §80 defines the main activities and responsibilities, §87-§113 define their participation rights
- they can have union involvement, but they don't have to
- works council get's a deciding seat at the table

 

[mongo]

Would have to be. FSD only runs on the FSD computer. Anything else would not meet performance and power consumption constraints.

Tbh power is the vehicle makers problem, but it would need performance with a very specifically tuned system, they are unlikely to find that and still have it run.

Opinion:
Tesla is not going to expend their finite human resources to develop and validate a cross compiler for some OEM's third party FSD HW. Nor port to a different processing architecture.
OEMs would outsource the modules and cameras anyway, and I can't see anyone beating Tesla on price given > 1M annual production and no lead time nor engineering cost to develop.
Further, it lets Tesla control their IP and avoids negative publicity if 3rd party HW fails while running Tesla FSD.

 

[Artful Dodger]

My mistake, good catch. It's yesterday's data (always), so that's Wednesday not Tuesday. Here's my history of Max-Pain for tomorrow's Options expiries:

View attachment 719027

I think even more interesting is my experimental "C-P Brkpt" (which is Calls - Puts at each Strike), which for days now has been pointing at a Friday Closing SP preferred by MMs at $790.

GLTA, and Cheers to the Longs!

@lafrisbee

As I theorized earlier this week based on Options volume, a "Put Wall" has formed at the $790 Strike Price for contracts expiring today:

From the MMs point-of-view, an advantageous Closing SP today would likely fall somewhere between $790 and $795.

Any higher than 795, and MMs would have to pay off on a surplus of 2K Call contracts, while any SP lower than 790 and they would have to pay off on 7.3K Put contracts. Obviously, more urgent to keep the price above 790 than below 795, but above 800 would be resisted strongly (16K surplus in Calls vs Puts).

In my view, this creates the motivation for MMs to attempt to hold the SP to between $790 and $795 today. Note that there were 844K Open options contracts as of 7:00 a.m. today. Of course news or events can intervene in the Market, as always.

EDIT: Resistance at $795 in the Pre-Market:

Not Advice. GLTA!

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Prunesquallor]

Some people will do anything to avoid Covid

You should have seen what it took to get here

 

[Budding]

There is an ultimate 5-6m units per year from the existing four factories. That’s enough to take them to 2025 for a 50% CAGR.

I think Berlin and Austin will cover the demand for model 3 and Y in 2022. But I feel Tesla needs to start producing the next lower priced model in 2023 to be able to grow further. Not everyone can afford a $55k car.

 

[Lessmog]

I know we want to get to the main show, but I actually appreciate hearing from other shareholders and view it as an equitable and appropriate use of time.
Gives an opportunity for a voice and for people to vote.

Sustainability is a real issue that isn’t easily defined. We did, however, get sustainable interiors due to a request during one of these meetings years ago.

Except that getting "sustainable interiors" probably wasn't due to the shareholder proposal because they only carry weight if they can get substantial ballots in favor. It was due to economics/customer preferences/ doing the "right thing".

Wasn't that the request to remove the leather gear shifter?

 

[hobbes]

Analyst target increase:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1446445451641823232

 

[Artful Dodger]

Not everyone can afford a $55k car.

If FSD pans out, and automotive gross margins stay above 25%, then Tesla themselves can buy 1 out of every 4 Models Y produced to add to the Tesla Robotaxi fleet.

FSD opens up the whole world as a sink for buying up Tesla cars, especially in regions that can't afford them!.

 

[elasalle]

I think Berlin and Austin will cover the demand for model 3 and Y in 2022. But I feel Tesla needs to start producing the next lower priced model in 2023 to be able to grow further. Not everyone can afford a $55k car.

25K will likely start in China. As GF Berlin ramps, introducing 25K in local China market should be the plan.
4680 seems like a done deal.

For US a lot depends on EV credits. If credits get approved, the 25K will likely appear later. cheers!!

 

[nativewolf]

At the risk of heading too far OT.... they key elements of German works councils to keep in mind:

- works councils (Betriebsrat) are elected, depending on the size of the organisation (min 5 full-time employees)
- sie of works council determined by number of employees, e.g. 1000 employees = 15 works council members, 9000 = 35
- only "workers" can be part of the works council, management staff may not
- established in law since the 1920s - today informed by the BetrVG (if you want to google it), §80 defines the main activities and responsibilities, §87-$113 define their participation rights
- they can have union involvement, but they don't have to
- works council get's a deciding seat at the table

Thanks, very nice summary

 

[Dreadnought]

Tesla Announces Date for Third Quarter 2021 Financial Results and Webcast

AUSTIN, Texas, October 8, 2021 – Tesla will post its financial results for the third quarter of 2021 after market close on Wednesday, October 20, 2021. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory containing a link to the Q3 2021 update, which will be

ir.tesla.com

AUSTIN, Texas, October 8, 2021 – Tesla will post its financial results for the third quarter of 2021 after market close on Wednesday, October 20, 2021. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory containing a link to the Q3 2021 update, which will be available on Tesla’s Investor Relations website. Tesla management will hold a live question and answer webcast that day at 4:30 p.m. Central Time (5:30 p.m. Eastern Time) to discuss the Company’s financial and business results and outlook.

 

[Paul_SF]

25K will likely start in China. As GF Berlin ramps, introducing 25K in local China market should be the plan.
4680 seems like a done deal.

For US a lot depends on EV credits. If credits get approved, the 25K will likely appear later. cheers!!

What if there is no 25k model? What if Tesla solves autonomy and sells the Ys to whoever wants to buy them, with FSD as monthly subscription only, and starts deploying Ys as Robotaxis?

I think Elon joked something that all cars were the same in I don’t remember what movie.