Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Thoughts for the morning:

There's no need for not-Model 2 for years. Model Y will sell like mad until it's #1 in the world. Perhaps a good cheap base model in 2023.

There is no way to herd cats. Anyone who claims this ability should be avoided at all costs.

It's time to start shorting AMC and oil.

Let's go $820!

• Can also cast voodoo spells, particularly good at casting them on mules that talk.

I wasn’t in charge when the exceptional talents were being handed out.

 

[The Accountant]

Paging @The Accountant When will Tesla be start to show lower taxes due to Austin, TX now being HQ? How does that work? And TIA

@CreativeName and @st_lopes are best to answer this question.
Profit allocation for various US States can be complicated especially with Tesla as they will still have a significant presence in California.
Hope these 2 can shed some light on the topic.

 

[ZachF]

Hasnt he basically already been living in Austin. He doesnt need to live where the HQ is registered.

EDIT: Also I guess my post that included some light political stuff was deleted. Funny since we know the move of HQ from CA to TX was in many ways was for political reasons.

So adding this back without my political thoughts.

Texas will gain dozens of jobs. This is going to be similar to Boeing move from Washington State to Chicago. Now 20 years later Boeing employees 500 people in Chicago and 70,000 in Washington State. Tesla will tell few people to move from Palo Alto to Austin. Tesla people that wanted to move to Austin with few exceptions would have already been allowed to move to Austin even before the decision to move HQ registration to Austin.

This analogy would work better if Boeing was also building a manufacturing facility multiple times larger in the chicago area as well.

 

[TheWalkingDad]

The average efficiency over an EPA drive cycle would be the relevant metric for understanding how much potential efficiency improvement is possible. I'm guessing it's probably around 95-96% for EPA Hwy and maybe 93-94% for EPA City . Anyone know?

Just to add another observation... When I was driving my previous 2018 Model 3 RWD I was averaging around 240 Whr/mi in terms of energy / mileage efficiency. I'm currently acheiving 222 Whr/mi in the new Model S refresh. That in itself is pretty amazing considering the Model S is heavier and bigger.

Now granted I have not gone thru really extreme temperature days as of yet but it goes to show that efficiency improvements will continue over time.

 

[thx1139]

This analogy would work better if Boeing was also building a manufacturing facility multiple times larger in the chicago area as well.

Thats the point though Tesla already was doing that. The executives and non manufacturing staff dont need to live in the city where the headquarters is located. Do you think Tesla is going to make or any significant amount of the engineers and software developers move from Palo Alto to Austin? Prior to this do you think Tesla was saying to engineers and software developers that they couldnt move to Austin? I would say that the sure fire way for Tesla to lose talent is to tell them you need to move from Palo Alto to Austin. Sure some will go and many will say sorry I am not uprooting my family.

 

[SOULPEDL]

... Elon, yesterday, said that factories should be smaller, that they should follow a path similar to that of chips. I do not recall the exact words. However, I am convinced that he gave a giant clue when he said Fremont could have a 50% production growth, while pointing out that it cannot grow physically.

What if Elon knows he might not need more factories - TBD?

Of course, he did say one factory per contintent. I know... it's a strong counter argument speaking in terms of the ideal today. But what if part of the equation to predict future demand is widely unknown, therefor staulling the decision on where to build next greenfield factory, if at all... ever. If the final volume or peak number of cars on the road is sufficiently low, there might not need to be another factory if it is faster to ship than wait for the next factory to be built. And if one factory were to create all the vehicles necessary for one continent, would you literally move the factory or simply start shipping and looking for more efficient ways to move inventory over, above, or even under the seas? Which is faster?

Although unlikely they don't build another factory, do we have a final count for # of robo-vehicles needed in the world over time? Tesla vehicles could last 30 yrs or more with new batteries, motors, and chips. The driving demand is also dropping from working at home, so are we using the correct math models today on future vehicle needs? How near is the Singularity really?

OK, I'm having trouble with the mere 1% BEVs sold comment which is a long way from 100%. But hasn't Tesla been just adding another line to existing factories with lots of land around the existing spaces?

Then throw in the robots and his dream of a blurred factory whizzing away... I'm not convinced 100% he needs more factories, and I don't think Elon's convinced either.

 

[StealthP3D]

Burry was saying that stuff in december well before the 900 SP. Stock price was 562 on December 2. SP dropped to 560 this year. A whopping $2. He’s not *that* smart. Now maybe he added more to his position at higher levels. But he was no genius during his announcement.

'Big Short' investor Michael Burry reveals he's short Tesla, tells Elon Musk to issue more stock at its 'ridiculous price'

"That's not dilution. You'd be cementing permanence and untold optionality," Burry said late Tuesday on Twitter.

markets.businessinsider.com

As an investor, knowing what you don't know is just as important as what you know. The problem happens when you think you know more than you do:

 

[AudubonB]

You should have seen what it took to get here

Sailing across on your Oppie? You’re the man!

 

[Gigapress]

If FSD pans out, and automotive gross margins stay above 25%, then Tesla themselves can buy 1 out of every 4 Models Y produced to add to the Tesla Robotaxi fleet.

FSD opens up the whole world as a sink for buying up Tesla cars, especially in regions that can't afford them!.

If FSD works out, Tesla will keep a lot more than one out four vehicles for the network. They would spend down some of their cash reserves to build the initial fleet and soon with the free cash flow from the fleet they could pay for all of their vehicle production costs.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Thats the point though Tesla already was doing that. The executives and non manufacturing staff dont need to live in the city where the headquarters is located. Do you think Tesla is going to make or any significant amount of the engineers and software developers move from Palo Alto to Austin? Prior to this do you think Tesla was saying to engineers and software developers that they couldnt move to Austin? I would say that the sure fire way for Tesla to lose talent is to tell them you need to move from Palo Alto to Austin. Sure some will go and many will say sorry I am not uprooting my family.

Do you really think Elon and his executives are NOT going to be based near the Giga that will be ramping 4680 Y, CT and Semi over the next 3-5 years?

 

[Krugerrand]

Can you be more specific about the number of cats you herd?

Wrong question. The right question is how do you herd the first one? Additional individuals gets subsequently easier. But to answer; I have herded over 30 at a time. I’m literally a cat magnet and my best friend can attest to that having witnessed it several times. It’s an exceptional talent.

 

[Drax7]

Elon specifically tweeted that he doesn’t currently have the bandwidth for electric aircraft.

His body language suggests he is intrigued, moreover thinking about
it for 10 years says a lot. Energy density is the present constraint,
however it many not be economically feasible unless its
done in scale.

 

[thx1139]

What if Elon knows he might not need more factories - TBD?

Of course, he did say one factory per contintent. I know... it's a strong counter argument speaking in terms of the ideal today. But what if part of the equation to predict future demand is widely unknown, therefor staulling the decision on where to build next greenfield factory, if at all... ever. If the final volume or peak number of cars on the road is sufficiently low, there might not need to be another factory if it is faster to ship than wait for the next factory to be built. And if one factory were to create all the vehicles necessary for one continent, would you literally move the factory or simply start shipping and looking for more efficient ways to move inventory over, above, or even under the seas? Which is faster?

Although unlikely they don't build another factory, do we have a final count for # of robo-vehicles needed in the world over time? Tesla vehicles could last 30 yrs or more with new batteries, motors, and chips. The driving demand is also dropping from working at home, so are we using the correct math models today on future vehicle needs? How near is the Singularity really?

OK, I'm having trouble with the mere 1% BEVs sold comment which is a long way from 100%. But hasn't Tesla been just adding another line to existing factories with lots of land around the existing spaces?

Then throw in the robots and his dream of a blurred factory whizzing away... I'm not convinced 100% he needs more factories, and I don't think Elon's convinced either.

I think many dont get how big the new factories are. Likely for the $25K car Tesla doesnt need a new factory and also what does new factory mean anyway. Does it need to be a new building or a new building in a different location. Shanghai is considered 1 factory. Fremont is considered 1 factory yet both consist of multiple buildings. I do believe also that once Austin is really churning out Ys Fremont can start to be retrofitted. First Y lines can be changed to casts and structural battery pack. Dont we believe that takes up less space? Then 3s can be changed to casts and structural battery pack building new lines in the space made available by Y's needing less space. Like this get 2 Y lines running in Austin. Shut a Y line in Fremont and refactor it. Finish that line and shut another and refactor it. Then build a new 3 line with castings and structural pack. Then shut a 3 line and refactor it. etc. etc.

 

[thx1139]

Do you really think Elon and his executives are NOT going to be based near the Giga that will be ramping 4680 Y, CT and Semi over the next 3-5 years?

Thus Texas will gain dozens of jobs. What I do think is that the vast majority of staff could stay where they are or could move to Austin. I also believe those same people that want to move to Austin could have moved if the HQ stayed in Palo Alto.

 

[Boomer19]

According to Fractional Shares Trading Interactive Brokers LLC you can enable it for every stock registered with the SEC. But it incurs small fees.

I don't use it, but they tried to advertise it to me

that’s good, thanks for confirming. some here have been looking for the ability to trade in fracs

so it looks like there’s at least 1 possible option
thanks again

 

[nativewolf]

Burry was saying that stuff in december well before the 900 SP. Stock price was 562 on December 2. SP dropped to 560 this year. A whopping $2. He’s not *that* smart. Now maybe he added more to his position at higher levels. But he was no genius during his announcement.

'Big Short' investor Michael Burry reveals he's short Tesla, tells Elon Musk to issue more stock at its 'ridiculous price'

"That's not dilution. You'd be cementing permanence and untold optionality," Burry said late Tuesday on Twitter.

markets.businessinsider.com

Right...it was because it went crazy. He was telling Elon to cash in at 560. He announced his shorts a month later (if I recall correctly and I might be wrong). 800s would be the price if I recall. A difference of $200 and that's real money.

I think Burry is actual just as smart as he thinks he is. He's very similar to Elon actually. He calls it like he sees it and with Tesla he doesn't see the valuation being given and he could be wrong or he could be right but the key point for any smart investor is not dismissing a contrary voice just because they are contrary. He's won multiple times, he has an ability to see issues and call them out. Maybe that's not "intelligence" and maybe it is just uncompromising honesty. Don't discount him, he's no GJ. You have to remember, he wants Tesla to succeed. He likes Tesla and the mission, he thinks the pricing was incorrect.

 

[hobbes]

That must be the earliest ever quarterly call.

We usually interpret that as bullish, right ?

 

[SO16]

Right...it was because it went crazy. He was telling Elon to cash in at 560. He announced his shorts a month later (if I recall correctly and I might be wrong). 800s would be the price if I recall. A difference of $200 and that's real money.

I think Burry is actual just as smart as he thinks he is. He's very similar to Elon actually. He calls it like he sees it and with Tesla he doesn't see the valuation being given and he could be wrong or he could be right but the key point for any smart investor is not dismissing a contrary voice just because they are contrary. He's won multiple times, he has an ability to see issues and call them out. Maybe that's not "intelligence" and maybe it is just uncompromising honesty. Don't discount him, he's no GJ. You have to remember, he wants Tesla to succeed. He likes Tesla and the mission, he thinks the pricing was incorrect.

He was short on Dec 2. Read the article I posted.

He also subscribes to TSLAQ talking points. He does not care if Tesla succeeds.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I think many dont get how big the new factories are. Likely for the $25K car Tesla doesnt need a new factory and also what does new factory mean anyway. Does it need to be a new building or a new building in a different location. Shanghai is considered 1 factory. Fremont is considered 1 factory yet both consist of multiple buildings. I do believe also that once Austin is really churning out Ys Fremont can start to be retrofitted. First Y lines can be changed to casts and structural battery pack. Dont we believe that takes up less space? Then 3s can be changed to casts and structural battery pack building new lines in the space made available by Y's needing less space. Like this get 2 Y lines running in Austin. Shut a Y line in Fremont and refactor it. Finish that line and shut another and refactor it. Then build a new 3 line with castings and structural pack. Then shut a 3 line and refactor it. etc. etc.

And the rest is just 3D printed. Bring on the Replicator!

 

[jbcarioca]

Just to add another observation... When I was driving my previous 2018 Model 3 RWD I was averaging around 240 Whr/mi in terms of energy / mileage efficiency. I'm currently acheiving 222 Whr/mi in the new Model S refresh. That in itself is pretty amazing considering the Model S is heavier and bigger.

Now granted I have not gone thru really extreme temperature days as of yet but it goes to show that efficiency improvements will continue over time.

I have had similar experience. I'm a bit euphoric with the efficiency of my Plaid, while understanding that using the power it has destroys lots of that efficiency, also at the cost of Safety Score, of course. from P85D to P85D I remembered the same thing happening, my range went up. At the time I was quite new to teslas I really did not understand that the very precise temperature control also was associated with BMS mprovements that probably yielded more efficiency. I'm still not positive that happened, my driving might have changed. I am certain that every change teal can make to improve efficiency they do, so whether the EPA numbers change or not, the reality improves.

Visibly, the newer cars have much smoother undercarriages and other obvious and subtle aerodynamic improvements. I cannot help but think that the Model Y with two huge casting and structural battery pack will provide substantial efficiency improvement beyond the battery itself. The castings will be more rigid, for sure. Better rigidity yields better efficiency too, not to mention lower production, installation and warranty costs.

It seems there is a virtuous cycle going on at Tesla that may not end. At least hope it does not end.